Some of my thoughts + Trading System - Page 18
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  1. #171
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    This is currently a correction of 38.2 % on H4, if we manage to break through this we will be targeting .9588 next.

    Considering that we are bouncing of 38.2 % it is possible that the correction on M15 may be larger than the last few.

    Price action above .9771 may mean the rally has resumed for the last high of .9913

    If you haven't i reccommend you break even now or at least move your stop loss to -10.

    Try and minimize your losses at all times.

    My bet is that we will reach at least 50% on H4 before retracing to test the highs or maybe not, maybe this was it and the bears are taking us back down to .9260... we never know, humans, hence the market is difficult to predict at moments like this.

    Regards,
    E. Lang
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  2. #172
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    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Good morning guys,

    Not much has changed since yesterday, i expected a little more down movement, but it seems we will need London to open for that to happen.

    H4: Bearish, so look only for short trades
    D1: RSI is still over 50, but i feel we will have it dip below finally today, which will be an even bigger indication of bearish intentions.

    Right now on H4 the price is located right below 38.2% of .9260 to .9913 at 9653/ish

    It stalled after it broke 38.2 on H4 the price started ranging on M15.
    Our current wave is with a H: .9700 and L:.9643

    A break above .9700 will indicate an attempt at .9770
    A break below .9643 will resume the decline to 50% of .9260 to .9913 at .9588

    Price action above .9770 as i mentioned yesterday will indicate rally resumption to retest .9913 > x > 2.0000

    I personally set my target to .9600 before i left yesterday, i was hoping it would have been hit by now, but obviously that wasn't the case.

    It is possible that we may have a larger upwards corrective wave (Corrective waves are opposite the direction of the trend) since we've hit 38.2 and then have a resumption to test 50%.

    It is also possible that the price doesn't correct unordinarily and just declines to 50% directly.

    Either way the overall momentum is bearish, so look only for short trades as most long signals will be corrections and probably wount go too far at this time.

    If you are not short yet a good entry is below .9643

    Move your stop losses and minimize your risk if you haven't already done so.

    Regards,
    E. Lang
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  3. #173
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    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    As you can see guys the short term descending trend line has been broken.

    If the price continues this movement our next targets will be .9970 > .9800 > .9913 respectively

    As i said in my previous post today:

    "It is possible that we may have a larger upwards corrective wave (Corrective waves are opposite the direction of the trend) since we've hit 38.2 and then have a resumption to test 50%."

    That movement is currently taking place, so if .9970 holds we may have another impulsive decline to retest 50%, otherwise its back up to test the highs.

    Regards,
    E. Lang
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    Last edited by elang; 01-25-2007 at 07:27 AM.

  4. #174
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    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Default ForexTrader

    I wanted to brag as my broker Forex.com / GAIN Capital has finaly released the Beta version of their new Trading Platform.

    The UI is very user friendly with soft, mild, relaxing colours.

    It is totaly configurable a la Marketiva, so you can switch things around resize, pile, stack, pin down, detach from platform if you want to move a particular window to another monitor.

    Regards,
    E. Lang
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  5. #175
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    Hey i just wanted to let you know that I am using your system you developed. I have had good success with it when I stick to it lol. I am still a noob to forex and still demo trade with emotional impulses that get me into trouble. Anyway thanks for posting.

  6. #176
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    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    GBP/USD

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9543; (P) 1.9612; (R1) 1.9667; More

    Cable continues to struggle around 1.9588 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.9261 to 1.9913 at 1.9587) and is still bounded in tight range trading today.At this point, further decline is still in favor as long as cable stays below 1.9679 minor resistance. Sustained break of 1.9588 will bring further weakness towards rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9467).

    On the upside, above 1.9679 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 1.9913 has completed after drawing support from 1.9588 cluster support. Rebound should follow in such case. But still, break of 1.9913 is needed to indicate recent rise from 1.9261 has resumed for 138.2% projection of 1.8090 to 1.9142 from 1.8517 at 1.9971 and then 2.0000 psychological resistance. Otherwise, risk of another fall remains.

    In the bigger picture, as discussed before, in case of further rise, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches key 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067) as the whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 could complete at or below this level.
    Right now, we already have bearish divergence conditions in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. sustained break of 1.9588 cluster support will be the a warning that whole rise from 1.8517 has completed earlier than we thought. Break of mentioned rising trend line support will confirm such case and bring much deeper decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237). Decisive break of this 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed and much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818).


  7. #177
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    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Default Gbp/usd

    Good morning guys,

    We are still looking only for short positions for the time being, try not to enter long as it will most likely be a correction.

    I am currently eye-ing 61.8% on H4.

    Daily RSI is dipping below 50%.
    MACD is below 0
    Stochastics are bearish

    Naturally there are two possibilities, one bearish and one bullish.
    Although the factors are overwhelmingly biased to the bearish side at this point in time we need to be prepared for any outcome.

    On the downside: A break below .9558 will signal the break of the trading range and resumption of the decline for 61.8% on H4 and perhaps even 75%.

    On the upside, the possibility is that we have a bounce off 50% on H4, in which case we will consider the decline from 9913 merely a correction of the rally. We will never the less still need take out the recent top of 9679 to solidify the move upwards, towards targets .9734 > 9913 > 2.0 Psy R

    Regards,
    E. Lang
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    Last edited by elang; 01-29-2007 at 04:34 AM.

  8. #178
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    Default GBP/JPY Long

    There is a potential Long play on GBP/JPY

    The charts speak for themselves.

    Regards,
    E. Lang
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  9. #179
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    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Hello guys,

    Not much has changed since i posted earlier today.

    The bias is still bearish regardless of the scary looking dojis on H4.

    As long as the decending trendline resistance remains in tact everything still looks bearish to me.

    Regards,
    E. Lang
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    Last edited by elang; 01-29-2007 at 09:25 AM.

  10. #180
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    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    UPDATE:

    The price continues to decline.
    Trading days like today are not for the novice trader, today only people with great patience trade.

    My sentiment is that the price will continue to declines untill at least a little bit below 61.8 where it will coincide with the ascending Trendline Support on D1.

    Two things will happen as always when we reach our target.

    A: We have a bounce off, which means we will concider the bearish price action from 9913 a correction and in opposite direction to the main trend (bullish)

    OR

    B: We will break below the trend line and weeeeeee down to targets the likes of 9422 > 9260, which means we will consider the decline from 9913 as impulsive and in the direction of the new trend (bearish)

    Of course there is also the possibility that neither of these manifest and that im just a sorry wannabe caramel donut of a trader

    Don't forget to set your Stop Losses!

    Regards,
    E. Lang
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    Last edited by elang; 01-29-2007 at 09:49 AM.

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