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  1. #181
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Good morning Guys,

    Yesterday, didn't go much as planned, rather the price bounced of 50% not reaching 61.8% nor the ascending trendline Support.

    If you are not already long you may long after the break of .9679 with targets: .9734 > .9913 > 2.000 Psy-R

    We have a clear EMA/SMA Cross Over on M30, H1 and H4 so its all good.

    You will notice that RSI didn't mange to close / break below 50, rather it bounced, this is very common when the price action is confirmed by RSI as Corrective, you will notice this on small as well as large time frames.

    STOP LOSSES should be around .9613 or .9547 depending on your targets.

    We may have an awkward possibilty of the price meeting R at .9734 and then bouncing back down to test 50% or .9547, in any other case its .9913 next.

    For now the facts have us assume that bearish price action from .9913 to .9547 is a corrective decline to 50% of the Rally started at .9260 with High of .9913 - Since it is corrective, it is in the OPPOSITE direction of the trend, hence the main trend is upwards.

    The intraday trend is Bullish - So we look ONLY for long opportunities today, do not sell corrections today, rather buy on dip of the retracement as today will mostly be Higher Highs and Lower Lows (Supposedly) > There are no guarantees.

    Regards,
    E. Lang

    ************************************************** *************************
    GBP/USD

    After failing to stay firmly below 1.9588 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.9261 to 1.9913 at 1.9587), cable stages a strong rebound today, breaking above 1.9769 resistance with 4 hours MACD pushed back above signal line. The fall from 1.9913 should have already completed at 1.9547. At this point, further rebound is expected to follow as long as cable stays above 1.9614 support. Break of 1.9735 resistance will encourage a retest of 1.9913 high. On the downside, below 1.9614 again will put 1.9547 low back into focus and bring will indicate fall from 1.9913 has resumed for rising trend line (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9471) support.

    In the bigger picture, a strong break above 1.9679 resistance will that case that rally from 1.9261 is still in progress. In such case, further rise could be seen to retest 1.9913 high and break will confirm whole rally from 1.8517 has resumed. But still, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches key 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067) as the whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 could complete at or below this level.

    Right now, we already have bearish divergence conditions in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Sustained break of 1.9588 cluster support will be the a warning that whole rise from 1.8517 has completed earlier than we thought. Break of mentioned rising trend line support will confirm such case and bring much deeper decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237). Decisive break of this 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed and much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818).

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    Last edited by elang; 01-30-2007 at 05:34 AM.

  2. #182
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    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Sterling Rebounds, Dollar Retreats

    Sterling staged a strong rebound across the board after the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, whose clients include UK Treasury and BoE, raised its forecast for U.K. economic growth to 2.75% this year, from Oct's 2.5% forecast. Also, one more rate hike is needed to bring inflation back to BoE's target of 2%. Sterling remains firm despite a weaker than expected housing report showing Nationwide House Price Index slowed to 0.3% mom, 9.3% yoy growth in Jan. Meanwhile, dollar retreats today ahead of Jan conference board consumer confidence which is expected to rise slightly from 109.0 to 109.1.

    Just so you know why what happened... happened.

  3. #183
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    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    The price action today can give any trader a headache.

    Don't put yourself down if you had a trade go bad, occasions like these take the steam out of everyone, the key here is to be patient.

    The bias is still bullish and we're looking to break over 9665 to resume.

    On the downside, if we break 9630 we may hit a few losses that will trigger a sell downwards and if we break 9613 it all bearish from there on.

    For now though we are still keeping our heads up, don't forget to place your Stop Losses!

    Regards,
    E. Lang
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    Last edited by elang; 01-30-2007 at 09:27 AM.

  4. #184
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    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    The bears are obviously not taking any crap today.

    They did not allow one candle to close above .9679 and everyone was waiting for a break there, no luck.

    On the low next targets are 9613 then 9547.
    However if 9613 holds we may see a retest of 9695 today and if we have an upbreak of that, THEN we may consider looking forward to 9734 > 9913

    If we break below 9547 then we will consider 9547 to 9695 a correction, and corrections are in the opposite direction of the main trend.

    The bulls traded with confidence today, but only till the point when they had to show what they were good for... and they bannana peel slipped right where they shouldnt have.

    The upward trend line on H1 has been broken and thats bearish enough as an intent, at the moment its all a little confusing. H4 says long, H1 says short, D1 has mixed signals... it is difficult to trade right now, your best bet is to trade solely S and R at this point. The bears have shown their superiority today so im putting my chips on them for the day. Tomorrow however could be another story.

    Once more don't put your self down, today was a whacky and whiplashy trading day. Take a look at the PRO Trading forums and even some of the biggest brokers out there, you will notice everyone is frustrated today with this pair... talk less about EUR/USD.

    Trade carefully and set your stop losses!!

    Regards,
    E. Lang
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    Last edited by elang; 01-30-2007 at 10:40 AM.

  5. #185
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    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Good Morning Guys,

    For the moment the bears are still in control of the price.
    London hasn't opened yet, so we may see some buying / selling when that happens.

    Under 9610 may push us down to 9588 > 9545
    Over 9640 may push us up to test 9695

    H4 Has gone consolidative for now, so we may see a break up or down, it depends on what the bias proves to be. At the moment i am more inclined towards a test of the Lows rather than the Highs.

    Good trading

    Regards,
    E. Lang
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    Last edited by elang; 01-31-2007 at 03:50 AM.

  6. #186
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    I will be happy to communicate with all and any of you on a daily basis.

    I use Yahoo Messenger: effilang@yahoo.com

    You may download it from here: Yahoo! Messenger - Chat, Instant message, SMS, PC Calls and More

    Regards,
    E. Lang
    PS: Check the post before this for new chart updates.
    Last edited by elang; 01-31-2007 at 03:41 AM.

  7. #187
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    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    My Limit order was hit for my Short .9624 @ .9564 for 60 Pips profit

    For now i am going to wait and see how the market reacts to .9547.
    I will most likely short again after i see some more comfirmatory bearish action.

    I will be looking to short on a retracement spike.

    Regards,
    E. Lang

    ************************************************** ****

    GBP/USD

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9583; (P) 1.9638; (R1) 1.9682;
    Cable is also bounded in tight range today. Rebound from 1.9547 lacked decisive momentum and was limited at 1.9695. Nevertheless, with 4 hours MACD pushed back above signal line, a short term top could be formed at 1.9547 low and hence, further rebound is still in favor to come as long as cable stays above this low. On the upside, Break of 1.9735 resistance will encourage a retest of 1.9913 high. Meanwhile, break of 1.9547 low will indicate fall from 1.9913 has resumed for rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9480).

    In the bigger picture, a strong break above 1.9679 resistance will save the case that rally from 1.9261 is still in progress. In such case, further rise could be seen to retest 1.9913 high and break will confirm whole rally from 1.8517 has resumed. But still, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches key 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067) as the whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 could complete at or below this level.

    Right now, we already have bearish divergence conditions in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Sustained break of 1.9588 cluster support will be the a warning that whole rise from 1.8517 has completed earlier than we thought. Break of mentioned rising trend line support will confirm such case and bring much deeper decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237). Decisive break of this 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed and much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818).


    Markets Look Forward to US GDP and FOMC Statement

    Dollar remains bounded in tight range ahead of FOMC announcement and a handful of economic data today. Markets will likely remain quiet before US Q4 GDP data where volatility should jump up. A solid 2.9% growth is expected in the Q4 GDP and if that's confirmed, dollar will likely be boosted as expectation will then be built up for a more upbeat FOMC statement that reflect recent improvements of growth outlook.

    Fed is widely expected to keep its target rate unchanged at 5.25% today. Once again the focus will be on the accompanying statement. There were three major developments since last meeting in Dec. Economic indicators has be resilient and showed that the US economy grew near potential in the fourth quarter. Inflation eased moderately but the pace certainly slow. More importantly, Fed members has shifted to a more hawkish stance in their speeches, saying that growth outside housing sector remains firm and inflation pressure may moderate slower than they would like to see. Hence, the statement's wordings on inflation is not expected to change but the wordings about "recent indicators have been mixed" could be modified to reflect the current growth outlook, leaving the statement a slightly more hawkish statement than the prior one.

    A series of better than expected key economic data, in particular the retails sales and trade balance, pointed to a stronger growth in the US economy in the last quarter of 2006. Consensus expects that US GDP has grown at a quicker pace of 2.9% in Q4, comparing to prior quarter's 2.0%. GDP price index growth is expected to drop from 1.9% to 1.7% while core PCE rise is expected to stay at 2.2%, suggesting that price pressure continues to moderate slowly. Chicago PMI is expected to rise slightly from 51.6 to 52.0 in Jan while construction spending is expected to rebound from Nov's -0.2% to 0.1% rise in Dec. ADP employment data, which is used as preview to Non-farm payroll, is expected to 122k job growths in Jan.

    Euro was steady after yesterday's Germany CPI data which saw a surprised drop of -0.1% mom in Jan. Just released, Germany retail sales rose much more than expected by 2.4% in Dec, comparing to prior - 0.7% and expectation of 1.3%. More data from the Eurozone will be featured today including Germany and Eurozone unemployment, Eurozone consumer confidence. HICP inflation is expected to accelerate from Dec's 1.9% to Jan's 2.1%.

    Swiss franc remains pressured on carry trade and is pressing record low against euro with EUR/CHF at 1.6253. KOF Leading indicator, which serves as a predictor of further economic activities, is expected to continues it's downtrend that started last Jul and fell further from 1.6 to 1.56 in Jan. UK Gfk consumer confidence is expected to drop further from -8 to -9 in Jan.

  8. #188
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Since the trend is bearish we accept that we must have:

    1. Lower Lows
    2. Lower Highs
    3. All movements in the opposite direction of the trend are corrections as long as the level of correction does not exceed critical levels of its wave eg. 61.8% - 75%

    As i mentioned before, i had my Limit order set above S of .9547 as i didn't want to loose pips in a possible whiplashing bounce.

    There are only two ways i consider R or S broken:

    1. The price violates the level then retraces to confirm it before continuing with the trend.
    2. The price breaks through so decisively that the earliest or first level of correction is far below that of the R / S level broken.

    In this case what happened is #1, the price broke...
    At this point i was waiting for a retrace, preferable a test of the S so i could buy on the tip of the correction.

    Considering that the trend is bearish i assume that the correction should start latest around the 75% level. However seeing as 50% - 61.8% was also R/S of .9547 it was logical to accept that as a good retracement entry point.

    My second short for today was made at .9542 on the M1 chart so i could surgically pin point the entry.

    I am hoping for a break of.9524 now, then 61.8% on H4 @ .9509 > .9452 > 75% @ .9424 > .9315 etc.

    On the upside we will need a break of .9550 > .9696 to confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

    Regards,
    E. Lang
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    Last edited by elang; 01-31-2007 at 05:37 AM.

  9. #189

    Thumbs up exelent thread

    hello elang,
    this is a great thread and i loved reading it ,your outlook on life is very mature and your information really helped me, looking forward to reading more
    cheers and good luck

  10. #190
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    langAs per my post today:

    "I am hoping for a break of .9524 (Violated) now, then 61.8% on H4 @ .9509 (Violated) > .9452 (To Come) > 75% @ .9424 (To Come) > .9315 (To Come)etc."

    From here onwards its pretty clean.
    Redraw your Fibonaccis on every retrace and move your stop loss.

    Regards,
    E. Lang

    Quote Originally Posted by pipsareus View Post
    hello elang,
    this is a great thread and i loved reading it ,your outlook on life is very mature and your information really helped me, looking forward to reading more
    cheers and good luck
    Your comments are much appreciated Pipsareaus,

    I am happy i've been able to help you with anything.
    Stick around.
    Regards,
    E. Lang
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    Last edited by elang; 01-31-2007 at 09:58 AM.

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