Some of my thoughts + Trading System - Page 20
Page 20 of 29 FirstFirst ... 10 18 19 20 21 22 ... LastLast
Results 191 to 200 of 285
  1. #191
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Varna, Bulgaria
    Posts
    754
    I've got to go to work again so i'll see you guys tomorrow.
    Over all today we've had two trades, all documented.

    You'll notice i only used MA crosses and short term trend lines for Entry, Exit and Stop Loss determination.

    Trades for today:

    TRADE 1

    Entry: .9624
    Limit: .9564
    Stop Loss: .9655

    Status: CLOSED
    Profit: +60

    TRADE 2

    Entry: .9542
    Limit: .9457
    Stop Loss: .9561

    Status: LIVE
    Profit: +27

    Todays reports start from Post #185 onwards.
    Looking at them in order you will be able to introduce yourself to my decision making process and specullative theory.

    Regards,
    E. Lang
    Attached Images Attached Images  
    Last edited by elang; 01-31-2007 at 10:22 AM.

  2. #192

    Thumbs up you are serious

    man ,if i did not know get to meet you personaly, i would never have believed that this thread is written by someone who just turned 20 years of age.
    well done ,for your age you thoughts flow like a naturaly gifted person,keep writting and helping all of us we appriciate it

  3. #193
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Varna, Bulgaria
    Posts
    754
    Good morning guys,

    My second short trade yesterday was stopped out:

    TRADE 2

    Entry: .9542
    Limit: .9457
    Stop Loss: .9561

    Status: CLOSED
    P/L: (-19)

    I'm not sure if it was GDP that came out, frankly i have no idea, but i didn't care much since i had set my stop loss, which was very reasonable at 19 pips, with a possible profit of much larger proportions.

    For some reason my Daily Trendlines on my chart had dissappeared and i totaly forgot and couldn't see the ascending trend line, which i was going on about the other day, hence why i was bold and in this case deluded enough to place an ambitious Target of .9457 a whole 20+ pips under the trend line...

    I admit that was my bad, but these things happen, if my trend line hadn't dissappeared on me i would have logically set my Target a few pips above it and i'd be in profit on the second trade now.

    Overall yesterday was a very profitable day.

    Let's see how things are looking today.

    The fall from .9913 took us as far as .9480, where it met the Daily Ascending Trendline and bounced off taking us back as far as .9668, respecting the previously existent short term trend line which you will notice on the chart i've attached.

    Our General Bias is long, so we will only be looking for long trades today.
    We will consider bearish price action from .9913 to .9480 as a correction of the rally started at .9260 with a High of .9913. Since it is a correction, it is in the opposite direction of the trend, hence... BULLISH.

    Trend Determination D1:

    *Stochastics are around the 20 area and they seem to be reversing
    *RSI is > 50
    Rating: Bullish

    Trend Determination H4:
    *We have a perfect morning star candlestick formation off .9480
    *Bullish MA crossover is visible
    Rating: Bullish

    Targets / R on the Upside In Order of Violation:
    * .9668 > 9696 > .9734 > .9913 > 2.000

    Targets / S on the Downside In Order of Violation:
    * .9625 > 9598 > .9574 > .9480 > .9455 > .9315 > .9260

    Play it safe and set your Stop Losses!

    I will update more throughout the day

    Regards,
    E. Lang

    ------------------------------

    GDP
    Consider the potentially damaging events of the past six months: a government induced housing market collapse, $4.00 a gallon gasoline prices, the effect on businesses of almost two years of Federal Reserve rate increases, an unresolved and unpopular foreign war and a dramatic and divisive national election. In an economy as heavily dependent on consumer spending as the American, any one of these developments could have seriously undermined consumer sentiment. If consumer sentiment and consequently spending had fallen last fall it is possible that we would today be drifting toward recession. In retrospect, it is understandable why speculative interest turned against the dollar in the last quarter of 2006. With the initial reading on 3rd quarter growth 1.6%, the USD looked set to follow the economy down. Beginning in the week after Christmas, reports on the American housing market, consumer confidence and purchasing managers scored solid and, to many observers, surprising gains. The improvement in US statistics was capped this week by the 4th quarter GDP number which outstripped even the optimistic expectation of 3.1% with a reading of 3.5%. Historically the trend level American economic growth is between 3% and 3.5%. Can the US economy sustain its historical trend in today’s difficult economic and political environment and if so what will that bode for the Dollar?

    NFP
    In the 4th quarter of 2006 the US economy created an average of 136,000 new jobs per month. The January Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) due at 8:30 am Friday is anticipated to have added 160,000 jobs. The December the reading was +167,000. January’s estimate is almost two thirds higher than the expectation had been for December, +100,000. The NFP statistic has consistently surprised the market with better than predicted outcomes. Baseline revisions added over 800,000 total jobs in 2006. Last year economists speculated that as the housing market fell it would drag down consumer spending, maybe tipping the US in recession. Consumer spending, however remained strong, supported, I would argue by a buoyant job market. Does the NFP report bear more directly on consumer spending than the housing market and what does that mean for the Dollar?
    Attached Images Attached Images  
    Last edited by elang; 02-01-2007 at 04:06 AM.

  4. #194
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Varna, Bulgaria
    Posts
    754
    In Red i will highlight targets that have been violated and in Blue those that haven't.

    BULLS -In Order of Violation:
    * .9668
    * .9696
    * .9734
    * .9913
    * 2.000

    BEARS - In Order of Violation:
    * .9625 - This is a good bearish signal, however it looks best to consider shorts only under .9598
    * .9598
    * .9574
    * .9480
    * .9455
    * .9315
    * .9260

    Regards,
    E. Lang


    GBP/USD


    Cable rebounded strongly after the fall from 1.9913 was supported by mentioned rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9490) and reached 1.9480 only. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as cable stays above 1.9597 minor support and further rally might still follow. Focus remains on 1.9695 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.9913 to 1.9480 at 1.9697) and mentioned trend line support.

    As long as 1.9695 resistance holds, the fall from 1.9913 is still in favor to extend further. And sustained break of the trend line support will confirm that whole rise from 1.8517 has completed at 1.9913 and deeper decline is expected to follow towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237). However, decisive break of 1.9695 resistance will indicate the fall from 1.9913 has completed after failing to break through mentioned trend line support. In such case further really should be seen to retest 1.9913 high.

    In the bigger picture, we already have bearish divergence conditions in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed earlier than we thought and much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818).

    And in case of further rise, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches key 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067) as the whole medium term
    up trend from 1.7047 should complete at or below this level.



    Forex Elliott Wave Analysis - GBP/USD

    65% confidence - First leg of major correction from 1.9917 has ended at 1.9483 and consolidation would be seen but upside should be capped at 1.9772, bring another selloff.
    Despite yesterday's selloff to 1.9483, lack of downside follow through and subsequent reversal indicate the first leg of major correction from 1.9917 top has indeed ended at 1.9483 and consolidation in minor wave b would be seen for few days. Above 1.9697 resistance would add credence to this view and extend gain to 1.9734 and possibly 1.9750 but reckon 1.9772/75 would limit upside.

    On the bigger picture, wave v from 1.8517 is labelled as (1): 1.8859, (2): 1.8674, (i) : 1.9180, (ii): 1.8835 and (iii): 1.9849 and wave (iv) has ended at 1.9260 and wave (v)has either ended at 1.9917 or would extend marginally to 1.9950 but 2.0000 would cap upside.

    On the downside, pullback should be limited to 1.9577 (50% of 1.9483-1.9671) and 1.9548/55 would hold and bring another strong rebound later.

    Attached Images Attached Images      
    Last edited by elang; 02-01-2007 at 04:46 AM.

  5. #195
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Varna, Bulgaria
    Posts
    754
    Keep your eyes on GBP/JPY - it is looking very juicy right now.

    Regards,
    E. Lang
    Attached Images Attached Images  

  6. #196
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Varna, Bulgaria
    Posts
    754
    Just to re-cap on the Elliot Waves for those of you who use them as a guide:

    1. .9177
    2. .8835
    3. .9846
    4. .9263 (Correction: abc X abc) with X @ .9747
    5. .9913

    There are 2 scenarios from here onwards.

    1. The decline from .9913 is Corrective wave A in the forming

    OR

    2. The decline from .9913 is a small correction after which wave 5 will resume for a possible break of .9913 with a target of 2.000 (AFTER WHICH, we will have a logical correction take place in the form of ABC or another variation.

    If you are following this thread and you are trading with me i recommend you set up your charts.

    - EMA 6
    - SMA 13
    - EMA 50/55

    - MACD 12,26,9
    - RSI 14
    - Stochastics 10,3,3
    - RVI 14

    You may also add EMAs 5 and 10 if you wish for further optimization.
    I trade mainly E/S MA crosses, Fibonaccis and Trend Lines

    I've been getting a lot of great feedback from users who implemented the system i had detailed in Post 1 of this thread, i'm very happy people have been getting such great results. Keep up the good work guys, you know who you are.

    Regards,

    E. Lang

    PS: even though the bias is/was Bullish, the bears seem to be taking over things.

    So far they are the first to score a point by taking out * .9625, If they want to continue dominating they need to take out their next target of * .9598. So far the Bears are in the lead.

    BULLS -In Order of Violation:
    * .9668
    * .9696
    * .9734
    * .9913
    * 2.000

    BEARS - In Order of Violation:
    * .9625 - This is a good bearish signal, however it looks best to consider shorts only under .9598
    * .9598
    * .9574
    * .9480
    * .9455
    * .9315
    * .9260
    Attached Images Attached Images  
    Last edited by elang; 02-01-2007 at 05:17 AM.

  7. #197
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Varna, Bulgaria
    Posts
    754
    The game score is tied 1 to 1 at the moment with the Bulls taking out their first target of .9668

    You can long after a whole candle closes above .9668 on M5, targets are below in blue.

    BULLS -In Order of Violation:
    * .9668
    * .9696
    * .9734
    * .9913
    * 2.000

    BEARS - In Order of Violation:
    * .9625 - This is a good bearish signal, however it looks best to consider shorts only under .9598

    * .9598
    * .9574
    * .9480
    * .9455
    * .9315
    * .9260

    Regards,
    E. Lang
    Attached Images Attached Images    
    Last edited by elang; 02-01-2007 at 07:41 AM.

  8. #198
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Varna, Bulgaria
    Posts
    754
    I've been waiting here for the past 40 minutes with this message just to hit Submit Reply, lol.

    The game score is 2 to 1 at the moment with the Bulls taking out their second target of * .9696

    Even though the price had quite a battle at this R, being rejected a solid 3 times, the bulls overwhealmed for a while and more buyers came in. Frankly i was expecting a clean break here rather than the sloppy cabbage throwing contest it turned out to be.

    You can long after we see good bulish play and a whole candle close above * .9696 on M5, targets are below in blue.

    Keep your eyes and ears open for the next set of news in about 46 minutes (Current time: 16:14 GMT+2)

    US ISM Man. - Forecast: 51.9 | Previous: 51.4

    BULLS -In Order of Violation:

    * .9668
    * .9696
    * .9734
    * .9913
    * 2.000

    BEARS - In Order of Violation:

    * .9625
    * .9598
    * .9574
    * .9480
    * .9455
    * .9315
    * .9260

    Regards,
    E. Lang
    Attached Images Attached Images    
    Last edited by elang; 02-01-2007 at 10:19 AM.

  9. #199
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Varna, Bulgaria
    Posts
    754
    The statement below could have been the reason for the break we just had, but the bears are showing no sympathy here:

    "Rumours flowing in that ISM Numbers will be coming in weaker than expected"

    Regards,
    E. Lang
    Attached Images Attached Images  
    Last edited by elang; 02-01-2007 at 10:18 AM.

  10. #200
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Varna, Bulgaria
    Posts
    754
    As long as we have higher highs and higher lows everything is ok.

    Don't exepect the difference to be too large now from H to L as we are pre news, but things are looking bullish for now.

    Please, don't forget to set your Stop Losses, use M30, H1, H4 to determine the best previous Lows on the chart for a Stop Loss execution.

    I'm off to work. See you guys tomorrow.

    Regards,
    E. Lang
    Attached Images Attached Images  

Forum Sponsors

Similar Threads

  1. Is A Futures/options Trading System Right For You?
    By geline in forum Free Forex Trading Systems
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 05-14-2014, 03:25 AM
  2. need some help coding my trading system...plz help !!
    By kdlfx2000 in forum Expert Advisors and Automated Trading
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 06-20-2011, 01:34 PM
  3. Replies: 4
    Last Post: 01-19-2008, 12:34 PM
  4. AbleSys Trading System
    By Runic in forum Show me the money! [Swing Trading]
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 06-03-2006, 06:04 AM
  5. Basic Trading System Components
    By geline in forum Forextown
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 05-26-2006, 01:30 AM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
"It's easy to make a buck. It's tougher to make a difference."
Tom Brokaw