"Basically we are still holding a Long Bias.
The price dip on H4 is just a correction of 9480 to 9747.
I've drawn a possible Elliot Wave scheme and we ill be lucky to catch in on the third wave if i am right with the waves drawn.
The correction could have ended already at .9625 or it could go further down to as far as .9600 before attempting another rise. Once again if i've drawn my waves right this should be a big rally."
The price bounce from 9747 went much further down than i expected and reached as far as .9535 before bouncing off.
Luckily the move down wasn't more than 100% of the price from 9480 L to 9747 H, this gives us the right to consider the decline as a correction, whereas corrections are considered in the opposite direction of the main trend... or in other words the trend is Bullish.
I opened a Long at .9590 at the double bottoms which was followed by a bullish engulfing.
You will notice on the charts that i've drawn the L, H and M of yesterdays previous Daily Candle.
This is a technique a trading buddy of mine Mr. Rico I. uses to sort of orient himself in his trading, it gives us an exact view of where the peak of the Bull/Bear battle was, where the low was and logically the 50% mark of the difference between those two point.
Having all other things in mind, its a good intraday technique to long above the mid and short below the mid with targets being the previous days H and L.
My sentiment now is that we are going to weeee all the way back up and start testing the Rs and Respectively created Ss.
.9667 (05.02 H)
On the attached chart i've accented important reversal candle stick formation, try and get use to them they occur all the time during intraday trading as in any other time frame or period of chosen trade.
Ohh.ohh.. i've got mail, the morning report just come in, one moment so i can read it and post it here.
...(3 mins later) OOok, this is what the big guys are saying:
Cable's fall from 1.9745 was contained at 1.9533 and recovers mildly since then. But still, since the rebound from 1.9480 has likely completed after being limited by 61.8% projection of 1.9913 to 1.9480 at 1.9748, further weakness is expected to follow to retest trend line support (now at 1.9522) as long as 1.9625 support turned resistance holds. Above 1.9625 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first.
In the bigger picture, with mentioned trend line support remains intact, the rise from 1.8517 is still in progress and further rally could still be seen that brings cable above 1.9913 high. However, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches key 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067) as the whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 could complete at or below this level.
Meanwhile, we already have bearish divergence conditions in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Sustained break of the trend line support will confirm that whole rise from 1.8517 has completed and bring decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237). Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed earlier than we thought and much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.
Pretty much what i said by the looks of it lol
Trade recommendations: Strategy: Buy at 1.9600/1.9550; stop well below 1.9500. Short term target 1.9700/1.9750
Weekly Trend direction: Bearish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.9750
Resistance levels: 1.9700, 1.9750
Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.
Medium term: The trend remains bullish whilst above roughly 1.9200, but it is becoming mature and our medium term target is possibly 2.0000. As we approach the BIG figure at 2.0000 and indicators become extremely overbought, great caution is required, as swings both ways may be huge, random and very fast.
Today: Despite a small 'spike low' to trend line support, we have not move anywhere different from last week's close. Not very attractive to trade, with large swings in both directions and plenty of opportunity for traders to get stopped out. We continue to urge caution when trading cable (read medium term strategy above) and there is no sense in trying to predict the next move at this time. As weekly momentum is bearish, we will go with that for now, and look to sell rallies to between 1.9700 and 1.9750, allowing for another spike high to 1.9820. Watch for signs of topping before entering and keep stops fairly tight.