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  1. #201
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Ok my taxi hasnt arrived yet, so i couldnt help it.

    The rumours were right and ISM came in weaker at 49.3 at an expected 51.9

    The Bulls are leading 3 to 1 having taken out their third target * .9734, some people have taken profit there as you can see it wasn't a clean and continuous break. My sentiment is that the mass is still bullish though and i am sure that those who took 50% of their profits of all of their profits at .9734 will buy back for another long when they see some confirmatory bullish action above the newly tested ground.

    It is a little troubling though that even on new 9734 wasn't concretely taken out.

    Anywho...This is my bias, things could go upside down so keep your heads up and set your SL.

    US ISM Man. - Forecast: 51.9 | Previous: 51.4

    BULLS -In Order of Violation:

    * .9668
    * .9696
    * .9734
    * .9913
    * 2.000

    BEARS - In Order of Violation:

    * .9625
    * .9598
    * .9574
    * .9480
    * .9455
    * .9315
    * .9260

    Regards,
    E. Lang
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  2. #202
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    Hello Elang,

    I'm fairly new here and just found your trading place here. To say I like this would be an understatement!! Will be looking forward to testing this and trying it out. So far, looks like your previous posts have been good. Others say the same.

    Thanks for sharing this!!

  3. #203
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    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    M'thanx ye have for ye kind Comments mtdavs! - they be like wind for m'sails and onwards sail i will Arrr!!!

    Now...
    Lets see what is happening to GBP/USD, yes ?

    BULLS -In Order of Violation:

    * .9668
    * .9696
    * .9734
    * .9913
    * 2.000

    I've set my stop for this long at .9600, i want to give it enough breathing space as i know there is a correction coming in on H4 that will take more time and space.

    As long as the price remains above 9600/18/20 we can expect a resumption of the rally towards .9913

    I have attached something i created to this chart to show why you shouldn't be chickening out of the trade - it is all based on Higher Highs, Lower Lows and Lower Lows and Higher Lows. I hope that what you will read there will help you perceive the market in another way.

    It's all just a battle between the bears and the bulls.

    They each have their goals and the one that scores the most wins at the end.

    Think of it this way.
    In Football - your aim is to get the ball accross the other teams goal line to score and earn a point, which places you in the lead. Thats the aim.

    Inbetween there are rules as well - Fouls, Offsides, Red Cards, Yellow Cards etc.
    When rules are NOT breached in an FX Uptrend we have HH and HL, if we have a LH in an uptrend the Bulls get a yellow card...

    If in an uptrend the Bears register a LL after that LH then thats a red card and the player is out of the game... the bulls loose power and the bears start gaining on points... in fact they may even win at the end if the Bulls don't recover.

    Same goes for a downtrend... we have LL and LH.. but if we have a HH registered... thats a yellow card right there.... things get troublesome.. will the bears recover ? will they make a LL or will the bulls confirm their superiority by a HH after the bear violating HL...

    Nobody knows, but this is what is expected.

    Right now my knowledge tells me i should be holding my long still and waiting for a Higher High between 61.8 and 75% or AT 75% and then perhaps another LL before we reach .9913

    I have considered todays low at .9642 a LL to the bullish uptrend on H4 started at .9480, so i am looking for a HH now, it is logical... it is the way the market works.

    Try and keep things simple guys, the worst thing u can do is complicate things and always remember things are always on a scale and can tilt from one side to the other in a moment, more so during a news day like friday.

    This is a radio i like to listen to while i trade: StreamingSoundtracks.com - Listen

    It is called streamingsoundtracks, its got a mix of calming, classical and modern video game, movie music. Very Nice and relaxing

    Regards,
    E. Lang
    PS: PLEASE SEE THE ATTACHED CHART!
    PSS: THE NEWS: Easy-Forex: The Financial Calendar


    GBP/USD PRE NFP Sentiment


    The Cable has been making erratic intraday movements for the past 3 days. Notice the long spikes on the past 3 daily candles.
    Stochastics on the daily chart are trending up but the 4hr stochastics are in overbought territory and have crossed down.

    Like the Euro, the technicals are pretty much showing a standstill for the pair. Tomorrows NFP will play a key role in the future direction of the Cable. If NFP is good, the pair may drop back down to its 61% Fib line and if NFP is bad, then we could see the Cable get as high as 9800.

    GBP/USD

    Cable's rebound from 1.9480 has reached as high as 1.9747, breaking marginally above 1.9695 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.9913 to 1.9480 at 1.9697) before retreating mildly. As discussed before, break of 1.9659 cluster resistance suggest that fall from 1.9913 has already completed at 1.9480 after failing to break through mentioned trend line support rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834). Hence, at this point, as long as cable stays above 1.9618 support, short term outlook will remain bullish and further rally is expected to be seen towards 1.9913 high. Below 1.9618 will turn short term outlook mixed again.

    In the bigger picture, with mentioned trend line support remains intact, further rally could still be seen that brings cable above 1.9913 high. However, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches key 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067) as the whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 should complete at or below this level.

    Meanwhile, we already have bearish divergence conditions in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Sustained break of the trend line support will confirm that whole rise from 1.8517 has completed and bring decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237).

    Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed earlier than we thought and much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818).


    Just to re-cap on the Elliot Waves for those of you who use them as a guide:

    1. .9177
    2. .8835
    3. .9846
    4. .9263 (Correction: abc X abc) with X @ .9747
    5. .9913

    There are 2 scenarios from here onwards.

    1. The decline from .9913 is Corrective wave A in the forming

    OR

    2. The decline from .9913 is a small correction after which wave 5 will resume for a possible break of .9913 with a target of 2.000 (AFTER WHICH, we will have a logical correction take place in the form of ABC or another variation.

    If you are following this thread and you are trading with me i recommend you set up your charts.

    - EMA 6
    - SMA 13
    - EMA 50/55

    - MACD 12,26,9
    - RSI 14
    - Stochastics 10,3,3
    - RVI 14

    You may also add EMAs 5 and 10 if you wish for further optimization.
    I trade mainly E/S MA crosses, Fibonaccis and Trend Lines



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    Last edited by elang; 02-02-2007 at 07:40 AM.

  4. #204
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    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    GBP/JPY is just correcting off intraday R of 238.27

    It may be a good idea to long on the correctional dip with upside targets:

    61.8% @ 238.61 > 238.90 > 75% @ 239.10 > H of 240.02

    Regards,
    E. Lang
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    Last edited by elang; 02-02-2007 at 08:53 AM.

  5. #205
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    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    GBP/JPY is just correcting off intraday R of 238.27

    It may be a good idea to long on the correctional dip with upside targets:

    61.8% @ 238.61 > 238.90 > 75% @ 239.10 > H of 240.02

    - - - - - -

    I keep on saying buy on the dip, sell on the tip etc, but i never explain what i actualy do, or at least not graphically.

    So i've taken the time to document this expression with the action in GBP/JPY

    This is how to catch corrections.
    Even though the price came back down, this is the general system used to catch corrections.

    Regards,
    E. Lang
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  6. #206
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    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    GBP/USD

    Despite edging higher to 1.9745, cable's upside was limited there and retreats sharply on broad based dollar rebound. As discussed before, previous break of 1.9695 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.9913 to 1.9480 at 1.9697) suggest that fall from 1.9913 has already completed at 1.9480 after failing to break through mentioned trend line support rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834). Hence, at this point, as long as cable stays above 1.9618 support, short term outlook will remain bullish and further rally is expected to be seen towards 1.9913 high. However, below 1.9618 will turn short term outlook mixed again.

    In the bigger picture, with mentioned trend line support remains intact, further rally could still be seen that brings cable above 1.9913 high. However, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches key 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067) as the whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 should complete at or below this level.

    Meanwhile, we already have bearish divergence conditions in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Sustained break of the trend line support will confirm that whole rise from 1.8517 has completed and bring decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at
    1.9237).

    Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed earlier than we thought and much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818).


  7. #207
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    Elang

    Would you please share with us your reasons for changing to the present sittings on your charts. I value your opinion and was wondering what you have found better about the present sittings.

    Thank You,
    Paul

  8. #208
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Hello Guys,

    Basically we are still holding a Long Bias.
    The price dip on H4 is just a correction of 9480 to 9747.

    I've drawn a possible Elliot Wave scheme and we ill be lucky to catch in on the third wave if i am right with the waves drawn.

    The correction could have ended already at .9625 or it could go further down to as far as .9600 before attempting another rise. Once again if i've drawn my waves right this should be a big rally.

    Not much to say for now.

    Regards,
    E. Lang

    GBPUSD is taking a nice dip after a rise towards 1.9740 level. The dip is expected to continue towards 1.9607 level where the retracement is expected to be completed and GBPUSD is then expected to resume its log-term upward trend.
    Most traders will look to buy GBPUSD today on dips towards 1.9600 level for targets above 1.9725 which could then be extended to 1.9850 level. Break of 1.9600 today will take GBPUSD towards 1.9512 level. RSI is around 51 in daily charts and don't seemed to play much part in GBPUSD's movement today.

    GBP/USD


    Cable's retreat from 1.9745 continues today and reaches as low as 1.9625 so far, but is still kept above 1.9618 support. As discussed before, a low made at 1.9480 after being supported by rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834) and 55 days EMA. Hence, further rally is still in favor as long as 1.9618 support holds. Above 1.9745 resistance will bring retest of 1.9913 high. However, below 1.9618 will argue that the rebound from 1.9480 has completed after being limited by 61.8% projection of 1.9913 to 1.9480 at 1.9748 and should put focus back to the mentioned trend line support (now at 1.9517).

    In the bigger picture, with mentioned trend line support remains intact, the rise from 1.8517 is still in progress and further rally could still be seen that brings cable above 1.9913 high. However, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches key 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067) as the whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 could complete at or below this level.

    Meanwhile, we already have bearish divergence conditions in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Sustained break of the trend line support will confirm that whole rise from 1.8517 has completed and bring decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237). Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed earlier than we thought and much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.

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    Last edited by elang; 02-05-2007 at 05:10 AM.

  9. #209
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    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Good morning,

    Yesterdays post:

    "Basically we are still holding a Long Bias.
    The price dip on H4 is just a correction of 9480 to 9747.

    I've drawn a possible Elliot Wave scheme and we ill be lucky to catch in on the third wave if i am right with the waves drawn.

    The correction could have ended already at .9625 or it could go further down to as far as .9600 before attempting another rise. Once again if i've drawn my waves right this should be a big rally."

    The price bounce from 9747 went much further down than i expected and reached as far as .9535 before bouncing off.

    Luckily the move down wasn't more than 100% of the price from 9480 L to 9747 H, this gives us the right to consider the decline as a correction, whereas corrections are considered in the opposite direction of the main trend... or in other words the trend is Bullish.

    I opened a Long at .9590 at the double bottoms which was followed by a bullish engulfing.

    You will notice on the charts that i've drawn the L, H and M of yesterdays previous Daily Candle.

    This is a technique a trading buddy of mine Mr. Rico I. uses to sort of orient himself in his trading, it gives us an exact view of where the peak of the Bull/Bear battle was, where the low was and logically the 50% mark of the difference between those two point.

    Having all other things in mind, its a good intraday technique to long above the mid and short below the mid with targets being the previous days H and L.

    My sentiment now is that we are going to weeee all the way back up and start testing the Rs and Respectively created Ss.

    .9624
    .9667 (05.02 H)
    .9747
    .9913

    On the attached chart i've accented important reversal candle stick formation, try and get use to them they occur all the time during intraday trading as in any other time frame or period of chosen trade.

    Ohh.ohh.. i've got mail, the morning report just come in, one moment so i can read it and post it here.

    ...(3 mins later) OOok, this is what the big guys are saying:

    GBP/USD

    Cable's fall from 1.9745 was contained at 1.9533 and recovers mildly since then. But still, since the rebound from 1.9480 has likely completed after being limited by 61.8% projection of 1.9913 to 1.9480 at 1.9748, further weakness is expected to follow to retest trend line support (now at 1.9522) as long as 1.9625 support turned resistance holds. Above 1.9625 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first.

    In the bigger picture, with mentioned trend line support remains intact, the rise from 1.8517 is still in progress and further rally could still be seen that brings cable above 1.9913 high. However, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches key 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067) as the whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 could complete at or below this level.

    Meanwhile, we already have bearish divergence conditions in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Sustained break of the trend line support will confirm that whole rise from 1.8517 has completed and bring decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237). Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed earlier than we thought and much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.


    Pretty much what i said by the looks of it lol

    Trade recommendations: Strategy: Buy at 1.9600/1.9550; stop well below 1.9500. Short term target 1.9700/1.9750

    Weekly Trend direction: Bearish
    Weekly trend reversal level: 1.9750
    Resistance levels: 1.9700, 1.9750
    Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

    Medium term: The trend remains bullish whilst above roughly 1.9200, but it is becoming mature and our medium term target is possibly 2.0000. As we approach the BIG figure at 2.0000 and indicators become extremely overbought, great caution is required, as swings both ways may be huge, random and very fast.

    Today: Despite a small 'spike low' to trend line support, we have not move anywhere different from last week's close. Not very attractive to trade, with large swings in both directions and plenty of opportunity for traders to get stopped out. We continue to urge caution when trading cable (read medium term strategy above) and there is no sense in trying to predict the next move at this time. As weekly momentum is bearish, we will go with that for now, and look to sell rallies to between 1.9700 and 1.9750, allowing for another spike high to 1.9820. Watch for signs of topping before entering and keep stops fairly tight.


    Regards,
    E. Lang
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  10. #210
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    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Just updating guys,

    Everything is looking good.

    It seems we may finally be getting a correction. I'm not sure where this will terminate, perhaps 38.2 perhaps 50%, we will see, either way the bias is still bullish with the next targets shown here below.

    .9624 - *Violated
    .9667 (05.02 H) - *Violated
    .9747 - Next
    .9913

    Regards,
    E. Lang
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    Last edited by elang; 02-06-2007 at 08:20 AM.

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