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  1. #211
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    .9624 - *Violated
    .9667 (05.02 H) - *Violated

    .9747 - Next
    .9913

    Hello guys,

    The price rebound from .9535 has gone as far as .9695 so far, knocking out .9624 and .9667 on its way.

    Zooming in to the 5 Minute charts i can see a possible correction of that price movement forming. If a corrective wave occurs at this point i would consider its pullback to be limited by 25% ~ .9667 R now S, 38.2% ~.9651 L & also 55 EMA on M5 (Most likely it will be 38.2%)

    Either way the bias is still bullish and the next targets we need to take out are .9474 > .9913.

    I don't know where you've longed but i recommend moving your SL to .9600 or .9588

    For now this long is going great and i'm currently 90 pips in profit at .9590 entry.

    I am b/e, but i haven't locked in any profits yet. Hopefully if we have a break over .9474 i will be able to move my SL to .9667 for a good 76 or so pips.

    Regards,
    E. Lang
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  2. #212
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    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Good morning guys,

    I feel we might have a correction taking place of L .9535 to H .9720, so i've terminated my position for now with 103 Pips in the bag.

    The trend is still bullish and if the correction takes place i will be longing again on the correctional dip.

    We have 4 scenarios:

    1. The price corrects the rise from L. 9535 and bounces of 25% currently around .9673, which is just by Intra day support of .9670, a break below here and we will be going for 38.2%

    2. The price corrects the rise from L .9535 and bounces of 38.2 currently around .9650 and approximately the Midline of yesterdays price action.

    3. Consolidative price action from H of .9720 continues and we have a break of .9708 mini-short term H and then run for .9720 > .9913

    4. The price corrects, the bulls loose control, the price falls, it takes out .9670 > .9650 > .9588 and the dark side plagues the galaxy, we all suffer terrible, terrible, unimaginable margin calls of a death X_X induced by unhumane year long tortures in a dark and shady prison cell occupied by the fowl stench of long rotten and corroded bodies of rebell traders who by will of destiny where crushed in the vary claws of doom that ironically now become your short, and lonely future. Consumed by the inevitable arrival of death and engulfed in a cloud of misery and wounds that never heal nor sease to bleed for they themselves see no future but the darkness amidst them, leaving only our daily trade blogs as a legacy and a prosperous reminder of strenght and will to those who still heed the call of pippaling freedom....bahaha im loony lol, don't mind me.

    Btw. i recommend you buy above 9720 after we have good bullish candles there, preferable over .9747 to be on the safe side

    Have a nice day, will update later.

    Regards,
    E. Lang
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    Last edited by elang; 02-07-2007 at 03:36 AM.

  3. #213
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    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    A technical reason to be long. (see att. chart)

    The current scenario in play is #3:

    3. Consolidative price action from H of .9720 continues and we have a break of .9708 mini-short term H and then run for .9720 > .9913

    Don't forget to read the post before this.

    Regards,
    E. Lang

    GBP/USD

    Cable's rebound from 1.9537 extended further to 1.9720 before turning sideway. Short term outlook remains mixed with cable bounded between rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9573) and 1.9475 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.9913 to 1.9480 at 1.9748). On the downside, firm break of mentioned trend line is needed to confirm fall from 1.9913 has resumed. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 1.9745 resistance will indicate rebound from 1.9480 is still in favor for 1.9913 high. Otherwise, further choppy sideway trading will continue.

    In the bigger picture, with mentioned trend line support remains intact, the rise from 1.8517 is still in progress and further rally could still be seen that brings cable above 1.9913 high. However, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches key 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067) as the whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 could complete at or below this level.

    Meanwhile, we already have bearish divergence conditions in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Sustained break of the trend line support will confirm that whole rise from 1.8517 has completed and bring decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237). Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed earlier than we thought and much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.

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    Last edited by elang; 02-07-2007 at 04:04 AM.

  4. #214
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    Hello guys,

    Just updating.
    After the price broke out of the pennant, it didn't have the needed huff and puff to break over .9720 (See attached chart)

    It bounced off, tested the R Line of the pennant and broke through it, currently testing the S Line of the penannt, if we break below that i see a fall to .9670 > .9654 etc.

    In any other case, the price should bounce of the Pennant S, break through the R again and try and take out .9720 once more

    Regards,
    E. Lang


    Pennant
    A continuation pattern in technical analysis formed when there is a large movement in a stock, the flagpole, followed by a consolidation period with converging trendlines, the pennant, followed by a breakout movement in the same direction as the initial large movement, the second half of the flagpole.



    As can be seen in the above picture, there is a large rise in the stock, followed by a converging consolidation period that resembles a pennant and a resulting continuation of the initial trend. Pennants, which are similar to flags in terms of structure, have converging trendlines during their consolidation period and they last from one to three weeks. The volume at each period of the pennant is also important. The initial move must be met with large volume while the pennant should have weakening volume, followed by a large increase in volume during the breakout.

    Forex Elliott Wave Analysis - GBP/USD

    65% confidence - First leg of major correction from 1.9917 has ended at 1.9483 and consolidation would be seen but upside should be capped at 1.9831, bring another selloff

    Yesterday's rally after breaking indicated resistance at 1.9670 has retained our view that decline from 1.9917 has ended at 1.9483 as the a-leg and further choppy consolidation in b-leg would be seen. Above 1.9750 resistance would extend gain to 1.9790/00, however, 1.9830/40 should limit upside and bring subsequent c-leg selloff later this month.

    On the bigger picture, wave v from 1.8517 is labelled as (1): 1.8859, (2): 1.8674, (i) : 1.9180, (ii): 1.8835 and (iii): 1.9849 and wave (iv) has ended at 1.9260 and wave (v)has either ended at 1.9917 or would extend marginally to 1.9950 but 2.0000 would cap upside.

    On the downside, pullback should be limited to 1.9670 and as long as 1.9617 holds, bullishness remains for gain to 1.9750, then 1.9790. Break of 1.9617 would suggest the b-leg from 1.9483 is possibly developing into a triangle, then sideways trading inside 1.9537-1.9750 would be seen. Only break of 1.9537 would yield re-test of 1.9483.

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  5. #215
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    Default Elliot

    The best Elliot Wave analysis I found around were at FXS Community - Home. I found out that these guys are great, they analyze major currency pair and give calls on active chat, all for free. My recommendations.

  6. #216
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    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Good morning guys,

    I can't type much now, but will do later.

    Check out the chart for now and note the trendlines i've drawn.

    Yesterdays H and todays R: .9732
    Yesterdays L and todays S: .9672

    Targets to the low are cluster Resistance turned Support at .9617 > .9582 > Trendline at 75%.

    On the upside break of .9732 is needed.

    Regards,
    E. Lang
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  7. #217
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    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    BoE is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 5.25% today. There were brief expectation of another rate hike from BoE in Feb after the Jan's surprise raise. Such expectation has significantly scaled back after BoE minutes which revealed a much tighter than expected vote of 5-4 instead of 7-2. The Jan hike was generally viewed as only a Feb hike pulled ahead instead of the start of a series of hike. Hence,the BoE announcement will likely be a non-event today.

    GBP/USD

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9674; (P) 1.9702; (R1) 1.9732;
    Cable continues to trade in choppy sideway trading below mentioned 1.9745 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.9913 to 1.9480 at 1.9748). Short term outlook remains mixed On the downside, firm break of mentioned trend line (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9556) is needed to confirm fall from 1.9913 has resumed. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 1.9745 resistance will indicate rebound from 1.9480 is still in force for 1.9913 high. Otherwise, further choppy sideway trading will continue.

    In the bigger picture, with mentioned trend line support remains intact, the rise from 1.8517 is still in progress and further rally could still be seen that brings cable above 1.9913 high. However, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches key 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067) as the whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 could complete at or below this level.

    Meanwhile, we already have bearish divergence conditions in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Sustained break of the trend line support will confirm that whole rise from 1.8517 has completed and bring decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237). Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed earlier than we thought and much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.


  8. #218
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    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    The price broke the trend lines i had drawn on my chart and broke through yesterdays low of 9672, reaching 38.2% below that after which it bounced off.

    My intuation says 38.2 wount hold much, i don't know why, but i think that if the bears have any chance of solidifying a taking over, they will need to break 50/55 EMA on H4 which is actualy around 50% as you will note on the chart.

    Watch out for the BOE and ECB rates today, place your stop losses.

    Regards,
    E. Lang
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    Last edited by elang; 02-08-2007 at 07:30 AM.

  9. #219
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    Default Skypecast

    Dear Traders,

    Very soon i will be reinstalling the internet connection back at home and i will be quitting my second job, so i will have a lot more time to trade.

    I will be using SkypeCast to hold live voice conferences, where i as well as any participants will be free to comment and theorise over the course of GBP/USD price movement throughout the day.

    I would like to invite everyone and anyone to add me to their Skype list, so we can communicate in the future - Username: effilang

    I am also an avid user of Yahoo Messenger so feel free to add me on that too - Username: effilang@yahoo.com

    The SkypeCasts i plan on holding will start at London Open and will go on for a bout 5 hours or so during the day.

    I will be happy to talk to any of you, newbees or experienced traders. If you haven't done this before i recommend you do it, communication and sharing experiences is a very good learning boost.

    Regards,
    E. Lang
    Last edited by elang; 02-08-2007 at 07:45 AM.

  10. #220
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    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Ok guys,

    BOE left interest rates at 5.25.

    The mass was expecting a hike, for some reason i didn't think that was gonna happen.

    The reaction wasnt too volatile untill we had a "no comment" statement from the officials, which gave NOTHING to the bulls worth hanging on to, so the bears took advantage and pummeled the price down to where we've all been waiting for it to go > 50%, we also took out some stops and im sure a lot of people Liquidated their longs, so this also contributed to the volatility.

    On the downside:
    For now if we have a good break of 50% we will run for 61% and then 75% which is around the trend line.

    On the upside:
    We could have a bounce of 50% but i doubt there would be any bulls at the moment with enough steam to take the price back up immediately, for now i am a bear with a set stop loss.

    Regards,
    E. Lang
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    Last edited by elang; 02-08-2007 at 08:02 AM.

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