Update,
The price will either break over the latest red line or, it will move lower off it, to retest the lows.
Regards,
E. Lang
GBP/USD
Cable's fall from 1.9731 resume today after recovery from 1.9457 was limited below 1.9600 resistance and reaches as low as 1.9437 so far. At this point further decline is expected towards next downside target of 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237) as long as cable stays below 1.9566 resistance. Touching of 1.9566 will indicate lengthier consolidation will follow first before another fall.
In the bigger picture, rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9579) was taken out, confirming that the rally from 1.8517 has already completed at 1.9913. Hence, as long as cable stays below 1.9731 resistance, the fall from 1.9913 should still be in force. Also, bearish divergence conditions are being displayed in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI already, suggesting that the whole up trend from 1.7047 might have completed. Focus is now on 1.9237/61 cluster support.
Strong rebound from or above 1.9237/61 cluster support will indicate that the current fall from 1.9913 is merely correction to the rise from 1.8517 only and cable could make another high above 1.9913 and attempt to meeting 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067) before having a medium term reversal. However, sustained break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.