Some of my thoughts + Trading System - Page 7
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  1. #61
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Dear Mac,

    Hello and Merry Christmas!

    H1/H4 or D1? - I use 4 Hour (H4) and Daily (D1) charts to get a good birdseye scope of the market, to set main supports and to eye possible price targets for the day.

    When im done with that i switch to H1 (1 Hour) and H4 Charts, to make an entry and get in on a trade at the right time.

    Do you have a win loss percentage and also, what is a good drawdown number to use with your system? - This is a very important trading. If your expense to income ratio is too even, you will loose your money.

    You need to keep your expenses and income to at least 2:1, so that even if you loose one trade, on the next winning trade you will cover your loss + come out with profit.

    Setting a resonable ratio there is one of the most important things you should consider about your account when trading.

    A good drawdown with my system, would be 0% , but unfortunately we're not always that lucky.

    Either way, its best to keep it to standards when it comes to this and use a 2% drawdown at a maximum.

    If you trade very well you can afford to risk a little more on your trades with the perspective of a good return of course, but its better safe than sorry, if you're just getting started out.

    I don't mind answering questions no.

    As for everyone else who may have been following this thread, right now i have the biggest hangover ever recorded, so i will not be trading today, hopefully i'll be feeling better tomorrow.

    I have to go take care of my self now, so i will be posting tomorrow hopefully.

    I wish you all a happy new year!

    Regards,
    E. Lang
    Last edited by elang; 12-27-2006 at 04:09 AM.

  2. #62
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    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Hello Guys,

    I feel much better now, so i thought i'd at least write a short analysis for the GBP/USD Pair.

    The bounce of .9748 took us all all the way down to as low as .9514 on the 26th. after which it bounced back up to .9632 on the 27th.

    If you note the chart attached you will see i've traced the price movements constriction with a decending channel, which seems to be tightening the further the price develops.

    All of this price action is consolidation from the rally started at .8835 on the 17.11.2006, which was halted at .9846 (Bullish Rally: Start: .8835 / End: .9846)

    The swing lows and highs of this sideways movement are, LOW: .9433 / HIGH: .9748

    It is important to take a birdseye view of things so you know where you are and what is going on.

    Even if you trade on the small time frames i recommend keeping a "trade out of the box" trading attitude and know whats going on around you.

    H4 BIAS:

    Price: It just bounced of the decending trend line resistance

    RSI: Hovering just over 50

    Stochastics: Bullish

    MACD: Bullish

    OVERALL SENTIMENT: Bullish

    H1 BIAS:

    RSI: Bounced of 70, bounced of 50, heading for 70 again. (Lame attempts at tryinng to make bullish runs which in end will just solidify the probability of a top at .9633, which will in turn fuel a drop to .9513) - I am sort of bearish on this one, and i think RSI will pop back below 50 today.

    Stochastics: Bearish

    MACD: Bearish

    OVERALL SENTIMENT: Bearish

    COUPLED BIAS:

    Boy this is a tough one.
    We're pretty much seing the same thing we had last week, very mixed signals on both main charts.

    All we can do i guess is go into Pipjitsu praying mode and wait for an "opportune moment".

    On the downside: A break below .9570 may take things down to .9513.
    On the updside: A break above .9533 may move things to .9683 > .9697 > .9748

    I am extremely influenced by the fact that RSI has bounced of 30 on H4!

    Langs Cross:

    H1 is showing a nice EMA spread with the White 5 EMA leading on top signifying a healthy up-move.

    H4 just got out of a spread and normaly we would expect an EMA bunch to follow but considering that we are around significant R levels i feel an eventual break of them may lead to volatility that will have the White EMA shoot right through the rest and surface above the remainders (10,20,50,100,200 < in that order for a bullish move)

    Either way, 5 EMA has crossed the 10 on H4, so you should have closed the short position you may have entered at .9630 / .9640 (5/10 Cross) if you used my system for a 40-50 pip profit or +76 like me if you've learn to optimize your exits.

    Thats all i can see for now.

    Regards,
    E. Lang
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  3. #63
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    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Default Gbp / Update

    Hey guys,

    From what we can see here, the price ran back to the highs and tried to break .9633, but with no luck. I assumed that was gonna happen as i mentioned before:

    "Lame attempts at tryinng to make bullish runs which in end will just solidify the probability of a top at .9633, which will in turn fuel a drop to .9513) - I am sort of bearish on this one, and i think RSI will pop back below 50 today."

    The price bounced of 9633 which means we now have a double top there; a very significant price reversal pattern.

    So, we've got the decending trend line resistance, RSI tested 70 twice and failed (H1) and double top and .9633 R.

    I have this "3 to go" rule.
    At least 3 factors are required to confirm a hypothesis.

    Anyway thats pretty much it, right now all we can do is just sit and wait. You may be short already, but if your crossing with Lang you will be waiting for RSI to dip below 50 and for a good 5/10 cross, either way, you will bag at least 50 pips today - so that should keep you happy and all it takes is a little patience.

    NOTE: Never marry your trade or your hypothesis. Notice how even when im sure about something, i still draw more than 1 Scenario - you don't wanna be surprized, so be prepared. You need to remain cold blooded, the best way to achieve that is to have entry and exit protocols.

    PS: If you are a more aggressive trader you may try entring the 5/10 short on the M30 or M15 chart, be warned however!

    Regards,
    E. Lang
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    Last edited by elang; 12-27-2006 at 10:02 AM.

  4. #64
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    Default Last Step on Entry

    Elang,

    When all indicators indicates an "all system go" on the current bar, do you wait for a close (confirmation) of the current bar before making an entry?

  5. #65
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Hey Ram,

    I've only recently a few times implemented the "Wait for the candle to close" before entering rule, i personally don't see much of a difference when i apply it in my trades.

    The only time i wait for a particular candle close is if i am waiting for a candlestick pattern to form. Normaly once a pattern is confirmed i will wait for the candle after the pattern to close so it can confirm or solidify the pattern.

    Thats pretty much it. I do assume however that it would be considered a play safe technique, i recommend it.

    Another instance where i wait for the candle to close is, if the price is around a significant R or S level, i wait for the price to close above or below the level depending on whether the play is bullish or bearish, and then i act. It is a very reliable signal that shows you what the mass sentiment is.

    Sometimes you will see a price break an R level for example and shoot out 40 pips above it, only for the candle to come back and close 1 pip below the same R level, it just goes to show the mass is rejecting intentions for an opposing move.

    Thats the way i think of it anyway.

    Regards,
    Effiong Lang (Effi)

  6. #66
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Hey Guys,

    I need to leave the office real quick, so i wount be able to post a final update for today.

    Just wait for a good 5/10 Cross on M30/H1 to open up and hold the position till you get a reverse 5/10 cross or you determine through other methods that you need to close your position.

    Thats all.

    I will update tomorrow on how this worked out.

    Regards,
    E. Lang

  7. #67
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    Default Stochastics Criteria:

    Long:
    Stochastic must NOT be over 80 (Overbought Level) and MUST be HEADING UP.

    Short:
    Stochastic must NOT be less than 20 (Oversold Level) and must be HEADING DOWN.

    Any other stoc behavior other than these which will help us regarding stoc analysis on this system?

  8. #68
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    Thumbs up very nice work, my suggestions .....

    hello elang


    first many thanks for your great work on this thread , i have read all your comments ,now i think it`s time to send a lot of suggestions to your system, look at my screenshoot....
    you can see the trend-channel ...it`s a indicator for MT4 named SHI-channel it`s very helpfully
    second ....you can see RSI (blue= RSI 5 , yellow=RSI 10) .....i have only attached both to see the difference of it ..... i think the RSI 5 did quicker go conformable with the rest of indicators ...what do you say about?

    question:
    have you advised to automat your system with MT4?

    sorry for my bad english ......

    thanks for all your work and suggestions , i hope we can read you longer here

    regards

    guenther
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  9. #69
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by begu View Post
    hello elang


    first many thanks for your great work on this thread , i have read all your comments ,now i think it`s time to send a lot of suggestions to your system, look at my screenshoot....
    you can see the trend-channel ...it`s a indicator for MT4 named SHI-channel it`s very helpfully
    second ....you can see RSI (blue= RSI 5 , yellow=RSI 10) .....i have only attached both to see the difference of it ..... i think the RSI 5 did quicker go conformable with the rest of indicators ...what do you say about?

    question:
    have you advised to automat your system with MT4?

    sorry for my bad english ......

    thanks for all your work and suggestions , i hope we can read you longer here

    regards

    guenther
    Dear Guenther,

    Thank you very much for your contribution.

    I have seen the difference with a lower RSI. It is a little more aggressive, although a trader that felt more comfortable with that could easily implement and still get similar results.

    That is good observation.

    I did think about automating the system but i dont know how to script in MQL, so it is just an idea for now.

    I did not understand what you were trying to accent with the SHI-channel ?

    Thank you!

    E. Lang

  10. #70
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    Default OS or OB zone

    Quote Originally Posted by ramrocket View Post
    Long:
    Stochastic must NOT be over 80 (Overbought Level) and MUST be HEADING UP.

    Short:
    Stochastic must NOT be less than 20 (Oversold Level) and must be HEADING DOWN.

    Any other stoc behavior other than these which will help us regarding stoc analysis on this system?
    Elang,
    In a good trend the stocs can be in the OS or OB zone. Do you just stay away and set on the sideline until the stoc broke away from these zones?

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