This is where you entry should have been today, once again using simple trend line techniques plus RSI/Stochastics you could have pipped that trade like a ninja and got in on the break straight off the bat.
My entry: Short @ .9508 (at the trend line break M5 Chart)
All you have to do is watch for a trend line break and thats it... Kabooom..
Don't forget to watch your EMas.
The sentiment is that this retracement will terminate at 50.% or 38.2% of 1.8836 to 1.9846 which we just broke before resuming the rally to break 1.9846, thats the bullish scenario as well.
As i always say keep more than one scenario open.
If it breaks (50.% of 1.8836 to 1.9846) at 9340 then things will turn bearish and if 61.8% is broken you are in an all new secondary bearish trend.
So just keep your eyes open for now.
If you've been paying close attention you would have already bagged your 50 pips for today.
Easy as pie.
PS: Watch out for the next 50 at .9450, the price might decide to leave a check point there and save game progress )
I see you are using new parameters on RSI, MACD, Stoc. How are those settings working for you?
They are doing great RAM, in fact im a lot more satisfied with these than my previous values for now.
Good morning everyone,
As i mentioned yesterday the overall sentiment was that this decline would be terminated at 32.8% or 50%.
We managed to break decisively through 32.8, but 50% is causing a problem.
Notice how at every 50 pips the price stopped to create a checkpoint, this way if the decline is terminated and the price starts rallying it already has predetermined destinations to check on the way back up.
I'm trying to break this down into a simple logic so you can understand things, the more you simplify and accept things for what they are the easier all of this pipology will become to grasp.
So whats happening now. This can be a scary point for a lot of begginer and novice traders, so we had a great decline but what now. You hit a dead end and you don't know what to do....
Rule 1, if you don't know what to do, close all your current positions and sit on your hands to do some TA.
Lets try and draw out an overall bull/bear bias for today with the available factors and data at hand.
- We have a clear bounce of .9350
- We have a possible morning start forming, we need a bullish engulfing candle close on H4 to confirm that. If this happens we have a very strong reversal candle stick pattern
- RSI is under 30, with visible previous attempts for a break above 30 which ended up in bearish rejections... now however a break seems to be coming up.
- Stochastics have broken out over the oversold zone
Downside targets are 9350 > 9300 > 9222/00 61.8% > 9180 > etc. etc
Thats pretty much it.
From what i can see while i was writing this is that we are getting a good morning star formation on H4 as i mentioned before if we get a good close, im sure we will see a lot of big candle stick players kick in to help through some fuel in the bulls fire.
My bias is bullish, as we've broken previous higher highs on m5, m15 and have create higher lows on the new upmove, as long as this continues its all good.
Here is a possible break out trade which could take us all the way down to 9350 if we're lucky.
It's not late to get in on the trade so hurry
After the break down the price reached 9385 and spiked back up. That was unexpected for me, either way i am still holding short untill i see a break above the trend line after which i will be forced to close out my position.
We are expecting the December Non-farm payrolls report tomorrow morning and now more than the ever the amount of jobs added or subtracted by US corporations last month could determine where the US dollar is headed next. After having sold off significantly at the end of November, the US dollar is on its way to recuperating all of its losses. Whether it is able to do take the EUR/USD below 1.30 will be dependent on if we see a sub 50k print in payrolls.
With a skyrocketing stock market at the end of 2006 and low oil prices, the negative ADP print caught the market off guard along with the weakness in the other employment reports that followed. This surprise has forced many banks to lower their NFP forecasts, but before becoming too concerned, there are many reasons why payrolls could remain positive. As usual, non-farm payrolls is one of the most market moving indicators for the US dollar and the level of payroll growth in the economy last month will help to determine if a soft landing scenario is in full play. Examining the NFP Leading Indicators
Arguments for a Sub 100k Print
First Negative ADP Since April 2003
Drop in Monster.com Employment Index
Drop inHudson Employment Index
Employment Component of Manufacturing ISM Remains Contractionary
Payrolls Derivatives Auction Settles at 82.2k
There are number of “leading indicators” for the non-farm payrolls report that we watch very closely and most of them paint a very grim picture of the labor market. The biggest surprise was the 40k drop in the ADP survey. Even though the ADP survey has had a poor track record of forecasting the absolute number of payrolls, it has had a very good track record in forecasting the direction of payrolls. Since January 2003, there have only been 3 months where the ADP report forecasted an increase in jobs while non-farm payrolls actually dropped in the same month and that was over 3 years ago (as shown in the chart below). In addition, the Hudson Employment Index posted a 2.6 percent drop while the Monster.com employment index fell 8 points in the month of December. The employment component of the manufacturing ISM report also points to another month of job losses in the manufacturing sector. As a result, the payrolls derivative auction indicates that traders are expecting jobs to increase by only 82.2k, which compares to the market's downwardly revised forecast of 100k Not Bad Enough for a Negative Payrolls Report
However, even though the ADP report has done a great job of forecasting the directionality of payrolls, the December NFP may actually buck the trend and remain positive. The following factors support a positive reading:
Jobless Claims Improved in December
Employment Component of Service Sector ISM Accelerated
Challenger Reports a Drop in Layoffs
Mild Weather Should Prolong Construction Projects
Jobless claims for the month of December averaged at 314k, which was less than the 327k average in November and suggests that companies may not be firing aggressively enough to warrant a drop in overall payrolls. The US economy is also mostly service oriented and today's service sector ISM report revealed an improvement in its employment component. The sub-index increased from 53.3 to 51.6, which indicates that companies in the service sector are continuing to add jobs. Finally, the planned job cuts according to employment consulting firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas fell by 29 percent in the month of December compared to the prior month. The mild weather should also keep construction programs going and delay any major layoffs in that sector. Therefore even though non-farm payrolls could easily come in below 100k, it should not be negative. We expect payrolls to be somewhere between 50k-70k. What is Expected
Here is what the market is currently expecting: Change in Non-Farm Payrolls: 100k Forecast, 132k Previous Unemployment Rate: 4.5% Forecast, 4.5% Previous Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: -15k Forecast, -15k Previous Average Hourly Earnings: 0.3% Forecast, 0.2% Previous Average Weekly Hours: 33.9 Forecast, 33.9 Previous
If construction sector jobs do hold steady, then the biggest potential sector where job growth could be hit would be in the retailing sector. From the initial holiday retail sales reports, sales have been modest and weak job growth would explain the weakness in consumer demand. What does this mean for the US Dollar?
For the US dollar, how non-farm payrolls fares will be extremely important. The EUR/USD is trading not far from its one month low while the GBP/USD has already broken that level. Both currency pairs are very vulnerable to a further correction after having broken through a trendline support. We would need to see job growth in excess of 100k to validate a push through 1.30 in the EUR/USD. If job growth is anywhere between 50-70k or less, the EUR/SUD could see a much needed bounce as the market begins to price in the possibility of weaker US growth in 2007. The labor market is the backbone of the US economy. Weak job growth poses a big threat to consumer spending. Even though the Federal Reserve is currently worried about inflation, at the rate that oil prices are moving lower, it should not remain a problem for long and growth will soon become the central bank's bigger concern. However with both service and manufacturing sector ISM reports expanding in the month of December, if job growth surprises to the upside instead, economic fundamentals would support a continuation of 5.25 percent rates and a move below 1.30.