Some of my thoughts + Trading System

Good morning guys,

Hope you are all doing well.
I have attached two files here. The first is my update from 20th and the second is todays results based on those predictions.

Ok.

From there we can see that we predicted a fall to 50 EMA which happened, in fact it broke through 50 EMA and found support around 38.2% of .9433 to .9747 at .9627-ish

Although it found solid support, my bias is sort of bearish at the moment.

H1:

  • Stochastics on H1 Look Very Bearish with a visible crossover
  • RSI is under 50
  • The EMAs are in a BUNCH, but we can see a clearly emerging bearish EMA SPREAD, we are just waiting for the 5/10 Crossover.
  • MACD Is also looking rather bearish trying to head below 0

H4:

  • Stochastics on H4 are bearish
  • MACD is far under 0
  • RSI bounced of 50 (38.2%), tried to pick up some momemntum, but now attempts to retest 50, perhaps for a break below (very bearish)

Either way i see two scenarios.

1: We break above 9671/77 and run for 9727 and continue with our previous bullish outlook with next target being .9846

  1. We break below 9618 and weeeee down to 9578 with our eyes back on 9433. In other words a intentfull break of 9618 would put thing back in a trading range of HIGH (9727) / LOW (9433) which are the consolidative bounds established so far from the rally that began at .1833 (LOW) .9846 (HIGH)

That is pretty much it for GBP today guys.

Right now we just lay low in the tall grasslands like lion and wait for a juicy Long or Short to emerge so we can pounce and bit it in the rear for breakfast :slight_smile:

Regards and MERRY CHRISTMAS,
E. Lang



Good day,

Stops for Longs should be placed below EMA Bunches.
Stops for Shorts should be palced above EMA Bunches.

Comment based on a bearish scenario:
My system gives you the opportunity to catch the trade exactly at its start, in a period during which if the price reversed and broke out of the range of the EMA Bunch you would be certain that things are not going your way.

In other words as i mentioned before, trade during EMA SPREADS and wait for an entry during EMA BUNCHES.

If you do that, then you will have no problem determining stop values as they will almost in all cases be located under the EMA Bunch (Long) or over the EMA Bunch (Short)

Regards,
E. Lang

POSSIBLE GBP/USD LONG SCENARIO on CHART.

Regards,
E. Lang


Thanks, Elang

I’m learning a lot from you as I read your post. Currently, I’m developing my own trading system and goals.And words of advice would be great!

Bests,
Investor

Is GBP/USD going up or down ?

Although the indicators all point to a Bearish Scenario in the play it is difficult to determine with the price still hovering around the 38.2% and 50 EMA and 100 sMA.

All we can do for now is wait, so we can catch the big move down.

Overall anyone today trading Langs Cross could have bagged at least 50 pips, with no emotional stress whatsoever.

The price can develop in two ways from here, either bounce back up to test 9697 then 9747.

Or

If its BEARISH 9578 then 9433.

We just need to watch what happens and when we have enough data to execute an action, do it.

As TAs that is all we can do. Analyze, Come to a conclusive determination, Execute our preferences. From that moment on it is our responsibility to monitor the price and in real time determine if the determination we made was correct. That is our job, and that is all the power we have as individual traders. The market is nobody’s pet.

Thats all.

PS: My sentiment remains Bearish.

Regards,
E. Lang


It will be my pleasure to help you in any way i can.

Stick around :slight_smile:

Merry Christmas,
E. Lang

GBP Seems to have chosen the Bearish Scenario.

Here is where you should have entered using Langs Cross on the H4 Chart.

If you entered using Langs Cross on the H1 Chart you would be in about 70+ Pips profit right now as i am.

The current time is:

(Bulgaria) GMT +2: 15:26 PM
(New York) EST: 8:26 AM

Regards,
E. Lang

PS: Check out galvestoneforex’s thread as well, there are some good trendline tips which you need to know to trade the FX! Very useful!

http://www.babypips.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1440#post1440


Elang,
Looking at your charts, do you use H1 for entry and timing then switch to H4 to measure profit target levels using fib?

You got it!

I rarely go below H1, unless i want to scope a movement out in detail.

There is hardly any difference, profit wise, whether you enter on H1 or M30 using this system, all in all the eventual profit is good either way!

UPDATE:

GBP/USD is now tackling 9578 R turned S.
If we break below that its weeee to 9433.

Merry Christmas.
E. Lang

PS: If you like what you are reading here and you feel it has helped out, i would appreciate a modest gesture of gratitude through a deemed by you deserved amount of reputation points.

Alll you need to do is click on the GOOD or BADD Thumb Sign on the top right corner of my thread to judge.

Much appreciated!
Merry Christmas.


Hey guys just a quick update.
Sorry about the uuuuuuuugly chart, but i am ina big rush and i just wanted to let you know whats going on quickly.

WE got through that R turned S 9578.
We may encoutner a little problem at 61.8%, but i doubt it will hold much water.

Unless a comet crashes into Trafalgar Square it is smooth sailing from here down to our target LOW of 9433ish.

Thats it people we are officially back in the consolidation range from price action High of 9846 started on 12.01.2006.

More tommorrow guys.
Dont forget to set your move your stop losses to your entry, so even if the trade goes against you u dont loose anything.

UPDATE: I’ve cashed in some of my profits to cover a little of my loss for today so im even if anything goes wrong and ive set a 50 pip Trailing Stop so that even if the trade goes against me i still square out with profit.

Merry Christmas
E. Lang


Hey Effi.
it’s great you’re sharing all the forex stuff with us, but I think it’s time you cut the crap and tell us the information we’re REALLY looking for!
what about that chick from the office?? did you get her?? :stuck_out_tongue:

lol. “REALLY looking for” - That is rather relative, no ? :stuck_out_tongue:

The question is, what are YOU looking for ?

I may have it, i may not :slight_smile:

The chic(s) are all doing good :stuck_out_tongue:


I’d like to update on GBP/USD but i can’t at the moment, so i guess that will be tomorrow.

What are you up to parsush ?

Regards,
E. Lang

hey, a man’s gotta “eat”… lol
obviously that was a joke :slight_smile: keep up to good FX work.

I’m currently long on EURCHF. I got strong signals it’s still time for everyone to get it. long in 18:07 (GMT) at 1.6024. SL: 1.6014 TP1: 1.6045 TP2: 1.6075

would your system agree with mine on this one?

For EUR/CHF Mine says you should have shorted where you longed with a target of: 5939, then 5857, then 5808, STOP: 6052

Regards,
E. Lang

PS: Sorry for the late reply.


Good morning guys,

Hope you’re all doing well.

Yesterday i said this:

"We got through that R turned S 1.9578.
We may encoutner a little problem at 61.8%, but i doubt it will hold much water.

…it is smooth sailing from here down to our target LOW of 1.9433-ish.

…we are officially back in the consolidation range from price action High of 9846 started on 12.01.2006."

Right… Well it just so turned out that the little problem of 61.8% not only held water, but water purification plants worth of it.

The price bounced right of 61.8%, i was so certain it was going through that i underestimated 61.8%.

Our lesson learnt is, Never underestimate anything. As individual TAs we are too small to allow ourselves the luxury of saying “we are certain”.

Everything and anything can happen in the markets and as i said yesterday the best we can do as TAs is to:

  1. Analyze
  2. Summarize
  3. Determine Variations
  4. Execute the nearest logical possibility
  5. Set STOPS + Move Stops to your ENTRY as soon as you can.
  6. MONITOR the results of our execution and trace the course of probability untill we meet our target or establish that we were wrong.

Its that easy, you are either wrong or you are right.
When you’re wrong, you exit, you sit down, you go through an error optimization protocol and you wait for your next possible entry.

Note: Try to avoid reentering a trade when you were wrong.

Your TA and Period in Wait before executing the trade should remain as long as you can bare without missing the optimal entry point in order to provide a minimal stop value. With patient and maticulous analysis all you need is one trade per day to bag in enough pippos to kick ur feet up.

For the moment my GBP/USD Bias is a mixed and i feel we might try and go back up to test 9697 then 9748 and should God Almighty will it so eventually HIGH of 1.9846

On the other hand RSI on H4 is showing something i called a FLAT in one of my previous posts, which means the price might try and come back down, but Stochastics and MACD on H4 dont confirm it with their Bullish style.

H1 on the other hand shows signs of a possible test reattempt of 61.8 (9557-ish)

Based on these mixed factors at the moment we should be in Praying Ninja mode, waiting for an opportune moment.

Sit on your hands and wait for a while, the trade will develop soon, and we will be able to enter, SHORT OR LONG either way we will bag at least 50 pips today.

Regards,
E. Lang




Pippers and Pippets,

At ATTENTION! Bellies in, Chest out… Shooouullldeeerss BACK!

We are clearly breaking above the down trend line, even though we don’t have a correction and retrace to solidify the move yet, its Bullish, so our next targets are obvious.

R1: 9697

Then: 9748

Ah, just as i am writing this i notice the correction above the trend line is taking place now, it should wobble about over the trendline and bounce back up towards 9697 if this move is strong.

In any other case the price will get spat back down to test the bottom trend line support, sniff…
( THERE IS ALWAYS MORE THAN ONE SCENARIO !! )

I longed a little earlier today, so i am already in profit, dont forget to set your STOPS!

UPDATE: Bullish Scenario Confirmed : we have a clear break of the down trend line resistance.
Next tragets: 9697 > 9748 (12:00 GMT +2)


I hear ya buddy!!! :slight_smile:

PS: The EUR/CHF Short Scenario i metioned, seems to be devloping well a break of 6011 will trigger a good fall > this is a good short trade.
(SEE CHART)

Regards,
E. Lang


Please take a look at the chart attached, this is a classic theory which you should know.

Unfortunately it seems things arent going that way, thre was a massive struggle over the trendline and it seems the bears are more powerful thatn the bulls in this case.

Either way, take a look at the chart, this theory is applicable in both bearish and bullish trends.

Just take a look at all those dojis over the trend line, bulls taking over, then bears taking over then the price coming back to where it opened, its so chaotic, massive power struggle going on. It is best to avoid trading in such conditions unless you wanna loose all your money.

NOTE: All the BIG players with the big wallets know about this theory and they rely on it extremely often to pick out possible market reveersals, you can expect a serious move, should the reversal be confirmed with the factors detailed in the chart text.

Regards,
E. Lang


First, lemme tell ya, I love everything you write, and I think I will be using your system full time, it works perfectly for what I want to do. About that though, I do have a few questions…

  1. Preferable H1/H4 or D1? What does that mean and what is the preferable part. I am assuming that the H1/H4 are charts along with the D1? But please elaborate just in case. Second, Do you have a win loss percentage and also, what is a good drawdown number to use with your system? I have more questions but I think Ill let you answer these fisrt, if you wouldn’t mind that is?
    Thanks aaaaaaalot!!

Mac

Dear Mac,

Hello and Merry Christmas! :smiley:

[B]H1/H4 or D1?[/B] - I use 4 Hour (H4) and Daily (D1) charts to get a good birdseye scope of the market, to set main supports and to eye possible price targets for the day.

When im done with that i switch to H1 (1 Hour) and H4 Charts, to make an entry and get in on a trade at the right time.

[B]Do you have a win loss percentage and also, what is a good drawdown number to use with your system? - [/B]This is a very important trading. If your expense to income ratio is too even, you will loose your money.

You need to keep your expenses and income to at least 2:1, so that even if you loose one trade, on the next winning trade you will cover your loss + come out with profit.

Setting a resonable ratio there is one of the most important things you should consider about your account when trading.

A good drawdown with my system, would be 0% :), but unfortunately we’re not always that lucky.

Either way, its best to keep it to standards when it comes to this and use a 2% drawdown at a maximum.

If you trade very well you can afford to risk a little more on your trades with the perspective of a good return of course, but its better safe than sorry, if you’re just getting started out.

I don’t mind answering questions no.

As for everyone else who may have been following this thread, right now i have the biggest hangover ever recorded, so i will not be trading today, hopefully i’ll be feeling better tomorrow.

I have to go take care of my self now, so i will be posting tomorrow hopefully.

I wish you all a happy new year!

Regards,
E. Lang