Good morning guys,
Hope you’re all doing well.
Yesterday i said this:
"We got through that R turned S 1.9578.
We may encoutner a little problem at 61.8%, but i doubt it will hold much water.
…it is smooth sailing from here down to our target LOW of 1.9433-ish.
…we are officially back in the consolidation range from price action High of 9846 started on 12.01.2006."
Right… Well it just so turned out that the little problem of 61.8% not only held water, but water purification plants worth of it.
The price bounced right of 61.8%, i was so certain it was going through that i underestimated 61.8%.
Our lesson learnt is, Never underestimate anything. As individual TAs we are too small to allow ourselves the luxury of saying “we are certain”.
Everything and anything can happen in the markets and as i said yesterday the best we can do as TAs is to:
- Analyze
- Summarize
- Determine Variations
- Execute the nearest logical possibility
- Set STOPS + Move Stops to your ENTRY as soon as you can.
- MONITOR the results of our execution and trace the course of probability untill we meet our target or establish that we were wrong.
Its that easy, you are either wrong or you are right.
When you’re wrong, you exit, you sit down, you go through an error optimization protocol and you wait for your next possible entry.
Note: Try to avoid reentering a trade when you were wrong.
Your TA and Period in Wait before executing the trade should remain as long as you can bare without missing the optimal entry point in order to provide a minimal stop value. With patient and maticulous analysis all you need is one trade per day to bag in enough pippos to kick ur feet up.
For the moment my GBP/USD Bias is a mixed and i feel we might try and go back up to test 9697 then 9748 and should God Almighty will it so eventually HIGH of 1.9846
On the other hand RSI on H4 is showing something i called a FLAT in one of my previous posts, which means the price might try and come back down, but Stochastics and MACD on H4 dont confirm it with their Bullish style.
H1 on the other hand shows signs of a possible test reattempt of 61.8 (9557-ish)
Based on these mixed factors at the moment we should be in Praying Ninja mode, waiting for an opportune moment.
Sit on your hands and wait for a while, the trade will develop soon, and we will be able to enter, SHORT OR LONG either way we will bag at least 50 pips today.
Regards,
E. Lang