Some of my thoughts + Trading System

Dear Mac,

Hello and Merry Christmas! :smiley:

[B]H1/H4 or D1?[/B] - I use 4 Hour (H4) and Daily (D1) charts to get a good birdseye scope of the market, to set main supports and to eye possible price targets for the day.

When im done with that i switch to H1 (1 Hour) and H4 Charts, to make an entry and get in on a trade at the right time.

[B]Do you have a win loss percentage and also, what is a good drawdown number to use with your system? - [/B]This is a very important trading. If your expense to income ratio is too even, you will loose your money.

You need to keep your expenses and income to at least 2:1, so that even if you loose one trade, on the next winning trade you will cover your loss + come out with profit.

Setting a resonable ratio there is one of the most important things you should consider about your account when trading.

A good drawdown with my system, would be 0% :), but unfortunately we’re not always that lucky.

Either way, its best to keep it to standards when it comes to this and use a 2% drawdown at a maximum.

If you trade very well you can afford to risk a little more on your trades with the perspective of a good return of course, but its better safe than sorry, if you’re just getting started out.

I don’t mind answering questions no.

As for everyone else who may have been following this thread, right now i have the biggest hangover ever recorded, so i will not be trading today, hopefully i’ll be feeling better tomorrow.

I have to go take care of my self now, so i will be posting tomorrow hopefully.

I wish you all a happy new year!

Regards,
E. Lang

Hello Guys,

I feel much better now, so i thought i’d at least write a short analysis for the GBP/USD Pair.

The bounce of .9748 took us all all the way down to as low as .9514 on the 26th. after which it bounced back up to .9632 on the 27th.

If you note the chart attached you will see i’ve traced the price movements constriction with a decending channel, which seems to be tightening the further the price develops.

All of this price action is consolidation from the rally started at .8835 on the 17.11.2006, which was halted at .9846 (Bullish Rally: Start: .8835 / End: .9846)

The swing lows and highs of this sideways movement are, LOW: .9433 / HIGH: .9748

It is important to take a birdseye view of things so you know where you are and what is going on.

Even if you trade on the small time frames i recommend keeping a “trade out of the box” trading attitude and know whats going on around you.

H4 BIAS:

Price: It just bounced of the decending trend line resistance

RSI: Hovering just over 50

Stochastics: Bullish

MACD: Bullish

OVERALL SENTIMENT: Bullish

H1 BIAS:

RSI: Bounced of 70, bounced of 50, heading for 70 again. (Lame attempts at tryinng to make bullish runs which in end will just solidify the probability of a top at .9633, which will in turn fuel a drop to .9513) - I am sort of bearish on this one, and i think RSI will pop back below 50 today.

Stochastics: Bearish

MACD: Bearish

OVERALL SENTIMENT: Bearish

COUPLED BIAS:

Boy this is a tough one.
We’re pretty much seing the same thing we had last week, very mixed signals on both main charts.

All we can do i guess is go into Pipjitsu praying mode and wait for an “opportune moment”.

On the downside: A break below .9570 may take things down to .9513.
On the updside: A break above .9533 may move things to .9683 > .9697 > .9748

I am extremely influenced by the fact that RSI has bounced of 30 on H4!

Langs Cross:

H1 is showing a nice EMA spread with the White 5 EMA leading on top signifying a healthy up-move.

H4 just got out of a spread and normaly we would expect an EMA bunch to follow but considering that we are around significant R levels i feel an eventual break of them may lead to volatility that will have the White EMA shoot right through the rest and surface above the remainders (10,20,50,100,200 < in that order for a bullish move)

Either way, 5 EMA has crossed the 10 on H4, so you should have closed the short position you may have entered at .9630 / .9640 (5/10 Cross) if you used my system for a 40-50 pip profit or +76 like me if you’ve learn to optimize your exits.

Thats all i can see for now.

Regards,
E. Lang


Hey guys,

From what we can see here, the price ran back to the highs and tried to break .9633, but with no luck. I assumed that was gonna happen as i mentioned before:

“Lame attempts at tryinng to make bullish runs which in end will just solidify the probability of a top at .9633, which will in turn fuel a drop to .9513) - I am sort of bearish on this one, and i think RSI will pop back below 50 today.”

The price bounced of 9633 which means we now have a double top there; a very significant price reversal pattern.

So, we’ve got the decending trend line resistance, RSI tested 70 twice and failed (H1) and double top and .9633 R.

I have this “3 to go” rule.
At least 3 factors are required to confirm a hypothesis.

Anyway thats pretty much it, right now all we can do is just sit and wait. You may be short already, but if your crossing with Lang you will be waiting for RSI to dip below 50 and for a good 5/10 cross, either way, you will bag at least 50 pips today - so that should keep you happy and all it takes is a little patience.

NOTE: Never marry your trade or your hypothesis. Notice how even when im sure about something, i still draw more than 1 Scenario - you don’t wanna be surprized, so be prepared. You need to remain cold blooded, the best way to achieve that is to have entry and exit protocols.

PS: If you are a more aggressive trader you may try entring the 5/10 short on the M30 or M15 chart, be warned however!

Regards,
E. Lang


Elang,

When all indicators indicates an “all system go” on the current bar, do you wait for a close (confirmation) of the current bar before making an entry?

Hey Ram,

I’ve only recently a few times implemented the “Wait for the candle to close” before entering rule, i personally don’t see much of a difference when i apply it in my trades.

The only time i wait for a particular candle close is if i am waiting for a candlestick pattern to form. Normaly once a pattern is confirmed i will wait for the candle after the pattern to close so it can confirm or solidify the pattern.

Thats pretty much it. I do assume however that it would be considered a play safe technique, i recommend it.

Another instance where i wait for the candle to close is, if the price is around a significant R or S level, i wait for the price to close above or below the level depending on whether the play is bullish or bearish, and then i act. It is a very reliable signal that shows you what the mass sentiment is.

Sometimes you will see a price break an R level for example and shoot out 40 pips above it, only for the candle to come back and close 1 pip below the same R level, it just goes to show the mass is rejecting intentions for an opposing move.

Thats the way i think of it anyway.

Regards,
Effiong Lang (Effi)

Hey Guys,

I need to leave the office real quick, so i wount be able to post a final update for today.

Just wait for a good 5/10 Cross on M30/H1 to open up and hold the position till you get a reverse 5/10 cross or you determine through other methods that you need to close your position.

Thats all.

I will update tomorrow on how this worked out.

Regards,
E. Lang

Long:
Stochastic must NOT be over 80 (Overbought Level) and MUST be HEADING UP.

Short:
Stochastic must NOT be less than 20 (Oversold Level) and must be HEADING DOWN.

Any other stoc behavior other than these which will help us regarding stoc analysis on this system?

hello elang

first many thanks for your great work on this thread , i have read all your comments ,now i think its time to send a lot of suggestions to your system, look at my screenshoot.... you can see the trend-channel ...its a indicator for MT4 named SHI-channel it`s very helpfully
second …you can see RSI (blue= RSI 5 , yellow=RSI 10) …i have only attached both to see the difference of it … i think the RSI 5 did quicker go conformable with the rest of indicators …what do you say about?

question:
have you advised to automat your system with MT4?

sorry for my bad english …

thanks for all your work and suggestions , i hope we can read you longer here

regards

guenther

Dear Guenther,

Thank you very much for your contribution.

I have seen the difference with a lower RSI. It is a little more aggressive, although a trader that felt more comfortable with that could easily implement and still get similar results.

That is good observation.

I did think about automating the system but i dont know how to script in MQL, so it is just an idea for now.

I did not understand what you were trying to accent with the SHI-channel ?

Thank you!

E. Lang

Elang,
In a good trend the stocs can be in the OS or OB zone. Do you just stay away and set on the sideline until the stoc broke away from these zones?

Right on Ram!

When they are in OS or OB i just cruise it and make sure the EMA Spread looks healthy, with no particular bunching.

In some cases if you are a more aggressive trader or you missed the entry, you can enter in the OB or OS zone but its good to make sure before you do so, that you have a good EMA Spread visible + RSIs’ condition and of course logical R and S on the chart.

But yeah, you got it!

Regards,
Effiong Lang

Elang

Do you set your EMA on the open, close, weighted or doesn’t it matter.
Thank you for sharing your system and knowledge it is very helpful.

Paul

Hi Elang:

You are an intelligent person! What is your educational background? I’d swear you were in your 40’s or more by the wisdom you’ve transfered from your brain to the keyboard. Very impressive, and you’ve mastered the English language as well.

pwegner, I believe all EMAs are applied to price close. Anyways, that how I have set mine.

Question:
After EMA5 & EMA10 crosses and RSI crosses 50, what do you guys see as spread or distance between the 2 EMAs when you make your grand entry? 2-3 pips?? I usually want to wait for visible gapping.

Thanks Ramrocket that is where I have them set but was wondering what others were doing. I have not use this system long enough to comment on the entry point.

Hi PWeger:

For what it’s worth, I also set my EMA’s and SMA’s to reflect the closing. As best I can tell that is essentially the norm.

Hello guys,

Happy New Year to everyone!

I’m sorry for not writing for so long, but work has been very hectic the past few weeks, plus I’ve been spending a lot of time optimizing my system for better results.

Let’s see what GBP/USD is up to.

Price consolidation from the high of .9846 took us as far as .9750, it tried testing it a couple of times producing two candle stick stars, all and all you should know that dojis and stars around major R and S are good reversal indicators, so on its own just with that you should start becoming weary.

Now as I mentioned before, one confirmatory factor is not enough to let me trade enter a trade, so we need to look for more evidence and lets see what we can find…

  1. Dojis / Stars at .9750 (Price consolidation high from .9846)
  2. We see a 5/10 cross around the .9730 area (H1)
  3. PAR SAR confirm the down move
  4. RSI is below 50
  5. MACD is below 0
  6. Stochastics are looking fresh
  7. Trend line was clearly broken (the white ray)

As you can see we have a lot of factors and as in any strong move, the white 5 ema cuts right through the other emas like a hot knife through butter, these are all very good signals.

So what are our targets here ?

  1. First major Support at .9632
  2. Second major Support at .9565
  3. Third major Support at .9450
  4. If we break .9450 then it’s a whole new bearish world down there, much of which we can discuss later should such a scenario be confirmed

Talking about scenarios once more we try and avoid becoming surprised so we assume there are more than one scenes available.

  1. Is what we just talked about up there.
  2. Price bounces of .9632 (S1) and retests .9750

I very much doubt scenario 2 due to the strength of this move, plus look at the emas we don’t even have a clear spread yet, which leads me to believe there is more to come on the downside.

You will notice I’ve made a few additions and changes to my charts.

-I’ve added a few more emas. I now have 5,10,20,30,40,50. I added 30 and 40 not so much because I need them, but more of a visual aid.
-You will notice I’ve added horizontal lines at each 50 pips. The reason I’ve done this is because my experience tells me the price always moves 50 pips, as long as you can determine the move direction and catch the break out you will always be able to bag the 50 minus the breakout pips, so lets say at least 40. It’s strange but it works, in fact even if you scrapped all TA and just determined the trend direction and bough and sold at each 50, you bag at least 30-50 pips. Another factor here is that every 50 is almost always a significant support and resistance level.
-I am testing RSI levels of 7 and 9 at the moment, 7 seems to give me very good flexibility in catching tops and bottoms for the moment.

Anyway. From what I can see now as I’m writing this is that the price is correcting of S1 .9632. I think that .9650 or .9660 (10 EMA on M30) will handle the price after which we can aim to follow the bearish scenario.

Now as I’ve said before. We do our TA the best we can, we enter our trade and then we monitor to see if we were right or wrong, there is always only two outcomes here.

Minimize your Stop Loss value every time you can and the more the trade advances in your direction.
Preferably move your stop loss to your entry so you don’t loose anything even if the trade goes against you.

That’s it guys, I’ve already bagged my 50 pipos for today.
I will wait for the retrace and eventual break of S1 before I enter short again, in which case I will be targeting .9565

Regards,
E. Lang

PS: I use Exponential EMAs calculated at the Closing price.


Hey Guys and Girls :wink: ,

Quick update.
Perhaps meaningless to some, but i wanted to show you how important it is to draw trend lines.

Whenever we get into consolidation or a retrace the first thing you should do is draw your trend lines so you can determine when best to enter of the retrace bounce.

Please take a look at the chart i’ve attached.
As you can see i’ve gone down to the 5 minute chart to get the best entry point. Like i said before i closed my position out around S1 and said i’d wait for a proper break, and when i say that i mean that:

  1. Price breaks decisively through S
  2. Retraces upwards
  3. Breaks back down below the new low (formed due to the retrace)
  • This is what i call a checkpoint. The price leaves checkpoints here and there and thats where we have our critical R and S levels. When we have a rally or a decline, the price will retrace and create a checkpoint.

Think of it as saving your progress in a video game, this way if you die you know where you have to go back to (your latest checkpoint) and if you continue moving onwards, you know where you have to create your next checkpoint eg: end of level or mid level (in other words the next R or next S)

Hey, thats how i think of it :slight_smile:

Regards,
E. Lang

PS: Also notice how 5 EMA and 10 EMA handled the price so gracefully, like a ballerina doing the swan dance. This is a good signal signifying a healthy move.

PSS: We also have the next 50 pips coming ahead (.9600), we may expect some sort of a checkpoint to be ceated there, if this all works out we will run for .9565


I just noticed something a little bothering which i overlooked.

There seems to be a visible uptrend going on here and 9600 is sort of the next S.

Do take a look at the attached chart.

It will be v. good news if we break below that, im sure there are some stops below that, which would fuel a heavy drop.

Heads Up.

Regards,
E. Lang

UPDATE:

We are looking for a break of the lower trend line on the M5 Chart to revive the drop back down.

Check the first attached chart for the update M5 S and R.
The second chart is an answer to the reason why .9600 is being a female dog :slight_smile:



Me too +52 pips on USD/CHF.:slight_smile: