Some of my thoughts + Trading System

Elang

Our using Rsi 10 and Macd 10,26,9 for sittings with the zig zag.

Thanks for all your great information.

ZAG (Short): 9641

SL: 15 pips above last high: 9667+ 15 = 9682

Exit: at next confirmed ZIg (Long)

Closed: -25 (sniff)

Regards,
E. Lang


I did some studying and it seems the Zig Zag Indi. isn’t as reliable for price predictions as i was hoping.

I guess the results i had with it before were based merely on the fact that i was using my regular techniques aswell during decision making.

Either way i don’t want to be dissapointing so i’ve given you 3 goodies today to make up for my sillyness.

  1. GBP/USD Trade Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9587; § 1.9627; (R1) 1.9685;
Cable turned sideway after reaching 1.9667 but still, as long as cable stays above 1.9588 minor support, intraday bias remains on the upside and further rally is expected to follow towards 1.9750 resistance. Below 1.9588 will turn intraday outlook consolidative. But pullback should be contained above 1.9452 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, break of 1.9564 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.9750 to 1.9261 at 1.9563) suggest correction from 1.9846 has completed after three waves down to 1.9261. Break of 1.9750 will encourage further rise towards 1.9846 high and then next upside target of 138.2% projection of 1.8090 to 1.9142 from 1.8517 at 1.9917.

On the downside, it will take a break below 1.9452 support will argue that the whole rise from 1.9261 has completed but a break below 1.9315 is needed to confirm. Below 1.9315 support will bring a retest of 1.9261 low and then 1.9177 cluster support 50% retracement of 1.8517 to 1.9846 at 1.9182, 23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9846 at 1.9185). We’ll still hold on to the preferred case that price actions from 1.9846 is merely correction to rise from 1.8834 only as long as 1.9177 remains intact. But sustained break of 1.9177 cluster support will turn medium term outlook neutral and argue that the whole rise from 1.7047 has possibly completed.

2: Some Signals (Entry > SL > Target)

eurusd buy 1.2948 1.2915 1.2998
gbpusd buy 1.9663 1.9627 1.9710
usdchf sell 1.2465 1.2505 1.2417
usdjpy sell 120.32 120.65 119.80

And

3: A modified version of the Zig Zag indicator which automatically draws trend lines to give you the optimal breakout entry points for daily trading.

Regardless of the fact that the Zig Zag isn’t too good at predicting future price movements, i still accept it to be the best way to filter our price noise and provide the most accurate R and S levels, for those of you who don’t have automated Pivot Points.

Thats all for now.

Regards,
E. Lang

Zig_Zag_Trend_Break.zip (1.54 KB)

Hi Elang:

I added and deleted ZigZag from my charts three times before coming to the conclusion that, for some reason, my computer’s virtual memory was virtually sucked dry while the indicator was on the charts. It was like trying to trade while submerged in plasma. Of course that’s just a guess, never actually traded in plasma. No idea why this happened, at first I thought the computer caught a big time bug or that InterBankFX was screwing things up from home base. I’m curious if anyone else experienced the same situation :confused:

I’m ZigZagless now :frowning:

Despite the news GBP found enough buying pressure to recover slightly and regain its intended retest for the highs.

MACD, STOCHS and RSI are all crying for a top and lingering around 9750 makes me think it might be around there.

This rally can continue in 3 ways i think.

  1. The price rallies and breaks through 9750 directly.
  2. The price bounced of 9750 and retraces to 38.2 or 9558
  3. The price fails now and starts the decline

Take a look at the chart i have attached.

We will be looking to short the the price closes below the 5 MA (White) and MACD has a definate cross with RSI below 70 (At least)

Regards,
E. Lang


You can short GBP/USD if the price on H4 closes below 5 MA (Linear Weighted).

Or

You can short now if you are more aggressive.

ENTRY: 9637
SL: 9690
Target(s): 9608 > 9558 > 9463

Price levels above 9680 will indicate a probable retest of the high.

I entered this trade based on a new system i read up on, if you are familiar with IC Wave Retracements, you will be familiar with this.

Check charts.

Regards,
E. Lang


I closed my IC Wave Retracement short at .9639 with a loss of 2 pips.

I felt it was better to play by the rules and look for a long since RSI on the Daily chart was over 50, so i caught the next indication for a long at .9639, based on the Active Wave shown on the attached chart.

All in all… yesterday i said there where three things possible.

[B]"This rally can continue in 3 ways i think.

  1. The price rallies and breaks through 9750 directly.
  2. The price bounced of 9750 and retraces to 38.2 or 9558
  3. The price fails now and starts the decline"[/B]

The price didn’t retrace to 38.2 but it retraced to 25.0, so it was just looking for a small breather before the final attempts at 9750

I believe we will have our go at 9750 today.

The outcome is a break over or a bounce back down.

Thats pretty much it.

Please take a look at the attached chart.

The reason i went long was because at least one (1) whole candle had closed above the 75.0%

I will keep on redrawing the fibonaccis at every available new wave with at least 40 pips in length, to determine whether we should continue holding the trade or when we should exit.

This system is pretty interesting, so lets see how things go.

Regards,
E. Lang


GBP/USD Trade #1

CHART 1

Active Wave 1

We are 24+ pips up on long from .9639

The trade was entered because we had a whole candle close above 75% of the most recent retracement of an at least 40 pip wave.

Untill we have a new correction take place so we can redraw our Fibonaccis, we will hold this trade long.

Regards,
E. Lang


GBP/USD Trade #1

CHART 2

Active Wave 2

We have determined that a new wave is active by noticing a correction taking place.

We signify the new active wave and redraw our fibonnaccis.
We desrgard the previous AW 1 fibonacci levels.

Criteria to hold the long trade: Resumption of the uptrend
Criteria to exit the long trade: At least one whole candle closes under 75.0% of the newly drawn active wave Fibonacci level.

Regards,
E. Lang

PS: Not that i wanna scare you or anything but you should know whats up:
Easy-Forex: The Financial Calendar


GBP/USD Trade #1

CHART 3

Active Wave 3

We have determined that a new wave is active by noticing a correction taking place.

NEW W40 LOW @ 9637
NEW W40 HIGH @ 9676

I will call these waves W40 from now on since we need at least 40 pips and a visible correction to identify a new wave.

In a successful trade my chart may look like. W40.1 > W40.2 > W40.3 etc. untill the trade is terminated.

  • We redraw our fibonnaccis.
  • We desregard the previous W40.2 fibonacci levels.

Criteria to hold the long trade: Resumption of the uptrend
Criteria to exit the long trade: At least one whole candle closes under 75.0% of the newly drawn active wave Fibonacci level.

NEWS UPDATE:

US Dec PPI is 0.9% vs. exp. 0.5% and prior 2.0%; core PPI is 0.2% vs. exp. 0.1% and prior 1.3

Slightly higher than expected PPI gives the dollar a small boost, but US Treasuries are not reacting in a significant way, up only 0.8 bps at 4.755% in 10 years

Regards,
E. Lang


GBP/USD Trade #1

CHART 4

Active Wave 4

We determine that a new wave is active by noticing a correction of a valid W40.
(At Least 40 Pips prior to the correction)

  • We redraw our fibonnaccis levels*
  • We disregard the previous W40.3 fibonacci levels*

NEW W40 LOW: 9642
NEW W40 HIGH: 9689

OUR BIAS: No one “whole” candle has closed under 75.0% Fibonnacci Level of the newly drawn W40 (40 Pip Wave) so we hold Long.

I’ve taken the liberty of moving my STOP LOSS 10 pips behind my entry now: ENTRY: 9639 SL: 9629

Regards,
E. Lang


GBP/USD Trade #1

CHART 5

Active Wave 5

We determine that a new wave is active by noticing a correction of a valid W40.
(At Least 40 Pips prior to the correction)

  • We redraw our fibonnaccis levels*
  • We disregard the previous W40.4 fibonacci levels*

NEW W40 LOW: 9650
NEW W40 HIGH: 9697

OUR BIAS: No one “whole” candle has closed under 75.0% Fibonnacci Level of the newly drawn W40 (40 Pip Wave) so we hold Long, until a whole candle closes below.

I’ve taken the liberty of moving my STOP LOSS to Break Even at 9639:

Regards,
E. Lang

PS: I AM OFF FOR TODAY GUYS. MORE TOMORROW!


GBP/USD Trade #1

CHART 6

Active Wave 6

We determine that a new wave is active by noticing a correction of a valid W40.
(At Least 40 Pips prior to the correction)

  • We redraw our fibonnaccis levels*
  • We disregard the previous W40.5 fibonacci levels*

NEW W40 LOW: 9672
NEW W40 HIGH: 9716

OUR BIAS: No one “whole” candle has closed under 75.0% Fibonnacci Level of the newly drawn W40.6 (40 Pip Wave) so we hold Long, until a whole candle closes below.

I’ve taken the liberty of moving my STOP LOSS to Break Even at 9639 entered off a “whole” candle close above 25% of AW 1 or W 40.1

Regards,
E. Lang


GBP/USD Trade #1

CHART 7

Active Wave 7

We determine that a new wave is active by noticing a correction of a valid W40.
(At Least 40 Pips prior to the correction)

  • We redraw our fibonnaccis levels*
  • We disregard the previous W40.6 fibonacci levels*

NEW W40 LOW: 9691
NEW W40 HIGH: 9741

OUR BIAS: No one “whole” candle has closed under 75.0% Fibonnacci Level of the newly drawn W40.7 (40 Pip Wave) so we hold Long, until a whole candle closes below.

I’ve taken the liberty of moving my STOP LOSS to Break Even at 9639 entered off a “whole” candle close above 25% of AW 1 or W 40.1

Regards,
E. Lang


[B]GBP/USD DAILY REPORT[/B]

[B][B]Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9625; § 1.9673; (R1) 1.9744; [/B][/B]

Cable’s rise from 1.9261 resumes and strengthens to as high as 1.9742 so far. At this point, further rally is expected to follow towards 1.9750 resistance. As discussed before, break of 1.9750 will encourage further rise towards 1.9846 high.

On the downside, below 1.9675 will argue that a short term top is formed, probably with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD too. Focus will then shift to 1.9587 support. Touching of 1.9587 will confirm that a short term top is formed and should bring lengthier consolidation. But even in such case, downside is expected to be above 1.9452 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, correction from 1.9846 has completed after three waves down to 1.9261. Break of 1.9846 high will confirm that rally from 1.8517 has resumed for next upside target of 138.2% projection of 1.8090 to 1.9142 from 1.8517 at 1.9917. However, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches key cluster resistance of 2.0106 (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067).

On the downside, it will take a break below 1.9452 support will argue that the whole rise from 1.9261 has completed and shift short term focus back to the downside.

GBP/USD Trade #1

CHART 8

Active Wave 8:
L: 9691 H: 9777

ENTRY: 1.9639
SL: 1.9639
CURRENT PROFIT: +130

We determine that a new wave is active by noticing a correction of a valid W40.
(At Least 40 Pips prior to the correction)

  • We redraw our fibonnaccis levels*
  • We disregard the previous W40.7 fibonacci levels*

NEW W40 LOW: 9691
NEW W40 HIGH: 9777

OUR BIAS: No one “whole” candle has closed under 75.0% Fibonnacci Level of the newly drawn W40.8 (40 Pip Wave) so we hold Long, until a whole candle closes below.

Regards,
E. Lang


[B][U]GBP/USD Trade #1[/U][/B]

[B]CHART 8[/B]

[U][B]A[/B]ctive [B]W[/B]ave 8:[/U]
[B]L: [/B]9691 [B]H: [/B]9777

[B]ENTRY: 1.9639 [/B]
[B]SL: 1.9639[/B]

[B]EXIT: 1.9719 / [/B][B]CLOSING PROFIT: +175 [/B]

[B]We determine that: [/B]One “whole” candle has closed under 75.0% Fibonnacci Level of the newly drawn [B]W40.8[/B] (40 Pip Wave) so we terminate our Long.

Closing Profit +175 pips

Regards,
E. Lang

[B][U]GBP/USD Trade #2[/U][/B]

[B]CHART 1[/B]

[B]ENTRY: 1.9714 [/B]
[B]SL: Floating[/B]

Having exited our long position we are automatically given signals for a short entry since there is a whole candle close below 75%.

We Short and wait for a correction in order to draw our new active W40 wave.

A new wave is determined and active by noticing a correction of a valid W40.
(At Least 40 Pips prior to the correction)

Regards,
E. Lang

GBP/USD Trade #2

CHART 1

Active Wave 1:
L: 9703 H: 9777

ENTRY: 1.9714
SL: Currently Floating
CURRENT PROFIT: 0

We determine that a new wave is active by noticing a correction of a valid W40.
(At Least 40 Pips prior to the correction)

  • We redraw our fibonnaccis levels*
  • We disregard the previous W40.8 fibonacci levels*

OUR BIAS: No one “whole” candle has closed over 75.0% Fibonnacci Level of the newly drawn W40.1 (40 Pip Wave) so we hold Short, until a whole candle closes over.

Please look at the acompanying Head and Shoulder chart as well.

This is a very valid possibility considering that we got rejected by 9750.
We may well have a top here.

Regards,
E. Lang




Hey Guys and Girls

Don’t forget that if you like what you see in my posts and you want to see more :wink: … you can help me get pumped and enthused for the next post by kindly rewarding my modest donations with the thanks they deserve by giving me a few Reputation Points!

Gotta move up you know :cool:

Much Appreciated.

Regards,
E. Lang

PS: Today we’ve made 175 Pips (Closed Trade) and Currently Floating with a short at 25+