Some of my thoughts + Trading System

GBP/USD Trade #1

CHART 2

Active Wave 2

We have determined that a new wave is active by noticing a correction taking place.

We signify the new active wave and redraw our fibonnaccis.
We desrgard the previous AW 1 fibonacci levels.

Criteria to hold the long trade: Resumption of the uptrend
Criteria to exit the long trade: At least one whole candle closes under 75.0% of the newly drawn active wave Fibonacci level.

Regards,
E. Lang

PS: Not that i wanna scare you or anything but you should know whats up:
Easy-Forex: The Financial Calendar


GBP/USD Trade #1

CHART 3

Active Wave 3

We have determined that a new wave is active by noticing a correction taking place.

NEW W40 LOW @ 9637
NEW W40 HIGH @ 9676

I will call these waves W40 from now on since we need at least 40 pips and a visible correction to identify a new wave.

In a successful trade my chart may look like. W40.1 > W40.2 > W40.3 etc. untill the trade is terminated.

  • We redraw our fibonnaccis.
  • We desregard the previous W40.2 fibonacci levels.

Criteria to hold the long trade: Resumption of the uptrend
Criteria to exit the long trade: At least one whole candle closes under 75.0% of the newly drawn active wave Fibonacci level.

NEWS UPDATE:

US Dec PPI is 0.9% vs. exp. 0.5% and prior 2.0%; core PPI is 0.2% vs. exp. 0.1% and prior 1.3

Slightly higher than expected PPI gives the dollar a small boost, but US Treasuries are not reacting in a significant way, up only 0.8 bps at 4.755% in 10 years

Regards,
E. Lang


GBP/USD Trade #1

CHART 4

Active Wave 4

We determine that a new wave is active by noticing a correction of a valid W40.
(At Least 40 Pips prior to the correction)

  • We redraw our fibonnaccis levels*
  • We disregard the previous W40.3 fibonacci levels*

NEW W40 LOW: 9642
NEW W40 HIGH: 9689

OUR BIAS: No one “whole” candle has closed under 75.0% Fibonnacci Level of the newly drawn W40 (40 Pip Wave) so we hold Long.

I’ve taken the liberty of moving my STOP LOSS 10 pips behind my entry now: ENTRY: 9639 SL: 9629

Regards,
E. Lang


GBP/USD Trade #1

CHART 5

Active Wave 5

We determine that a new wave is active by noticing a correction of a valid W40.
(At Least 40 Pips prior to the correction)

  • We redraw our fibonnaccis levels*
  • We disregard the previous W40.4 fibonacci levels*

NEW W40 LOW: 9650
NEW W40 HIGH: 9697

OUR BIAS: No one “whole” candle has closed under 75.0% Fibonnacci Level of the newly drawn W40 (40 Pip Wave) so we hold Long, until a whole candle closes below.

I’ve taken the liberty of moving my STOP LOSS to Break Even at 9639:

Regards,
E. Lang

PS: I AM OFF FOR TODAY GUYS. MORE TOMORROW!


GBP/USD Trade #1

CHART 6

Active Wave 6

We determine that a new wave is active by noticing a correction of a valid W40.
(At Least 40 Pips prior to the correction)

  • We redraw our fibonnaccis levels*
  • We disregard the previous W40.5 fibonacci levels*

NEW W40 LOW: 9672
NEW W40 HIGH: 9716

OUR BIAS: No one “whole” candle has closed under 75.0% Fibonnacci Level of the newly drawn W40.6 (40 Pip Wave) so we hold Long, until a whole candle closes below.

I’ve taken the liberty of moving my STOP LOSS to Break Even at 9639 entered off a “whole” candle close above 25% of AW 1 or W 40.1

Regards,
E. Lang


GBP/USD Trade #1

CHART 7

Active Wave 7

We determine that a new wave is active by noticing a correction of a valid W40.
(At Least 40 Pips prior to the correction)

  • We redraw our fibonnaccis levels*
  • We disregard the previous W40.6 fibonacci levels*

NEW W40 LOW: 9691
NEW W40 HIGH: 9741

OUR BIAS: No one “whole” candle has closed under 75.0% Fibonnacci Level of the newly drawn W40.7 (40 Pip Wave) so we hold Long, until a whole candle closes below.

I’ve taken the liberty of moving my STOP LOSS to Break Even at 9639 entered off a “whole” candle close above 25% of AW 1 or W 40.1

Regards,
E. Lang


[B]GBP/USD DAILY REPORT[/B]

[B][B]Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9625; § 1.9673; (R1) 1.9744; [/B][/B]

Cable’s rise from 1.9261 resumes and strengthens to as high as 1.9742 so far. At this point, further rally is expected to follow towards 1.9750 resistance. As discussed before, break of 1.9750 will encourage further rise towards 1.9846 high.

On the downside, below 1.9675 will argue that a short term top is formed, probably with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD too. Focus will then shift to 1.9587 support. Touching of 1.9587 will confirm that a short term top is formed and should bring lengthier consolidation. But even in such case, downside is expected to be above 1.9452 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, correction from 1.9846 has completed after three waves down to 1.9261. Break of 1.9846 high will confirm that rally from 1.8517 has resumed for next upside target of 138.2% projection of 1.8090 to 1.9142 from 1.8517 at 1.9917. However, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches key cluster resistance of 2.0106 (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067).

On the downside, it will take a break below 1.9452 support will argue that the whole rise from 1.9261 has completed and shift short term focus back to the downside.

GBP/USD Trade #1

CHART 8

Active Wave 8:
L: 9691 H: 9777

ENTRY: 1.9639
SL: 1.9639
CURRENT PROFIT: +130

We determine that a new wave is active by noticing a correction of a valid W40.
(At Least 40 Pips prior to the correction)

  • We redraw our fibonnaccis levels*
  • We disregard the previous W40.7 fibonacci levels*

NEW W40 LOW: 9691
NEW W40 HIGH: 9777

OUR BIAS: No one “whole” candle has closed under 75.0% Fibonnacci Level of the newly drawn W40.8 (40 Pip Wave) so we hold Long, until a whole candle closes below.

Regards,
E. Lang


[B][U]GBP/USD Trade #1[/U][/B]

[B]CHART 8[/B]

[U][B]A[/B]ctive [B]W[/B]ave 8:[/U]
[B]L: [/B]9691 [B]H: [/B]9777

[B]ENTRY: 1.9639 [/B]
[B]SL: 1.9639[/B]

[B]EXIT: 1.9719 / [/B][B]CLOSING PROFIT: +175 [/B]

[B]We determine that: [/B]One “whole” candle has closed under 75.0% Fibonnacci Level of the newly drawn [B]W40.8[/B] (40 Pip Wave) so we terminate our Long.

Closing Profit +175 pips

Regards,
E. Lang

[B][U]GBP/USD Trade #2[/U][/B]

[B]CHART 1[/B]

[B]ENTRY: 1.9714 [/B]
[B]SL: Floating[/B]

Having exited our long position we are automatically given signals for a short entry since there is a whole candle close below 75%.

We Short and wait for a correction in order to draw our new active W40 wave.

A new wave is determined and active by noticing a correction of a valid W40.
(At Least 40 Pips prior to the correction)

Regards,
E. Lang

GBP/USD Trade #2

CHART 1

Active Wave 1:
L: 9703 H: 9777

ENTRY: 1.9714
SL: Currently Floating
CURRENT PROFIT: 0

We determine that a new wave is active by noticing a correction of a valid W40.
(At Least 40 Pips prior to the correction)

  • We redraw our fibonnaccis levels*
  • We disregard the previous W40.8 fibonacci levels*

OUR BIAS: No one “whole” candle has closed over 75.0% Fibonnacci Level of the newly drawn W40.1 (40 Pip Wave) so we hold Short, until a whole candle closes over.

Please look at the acompanying Head and Shoulder chart as well.

This is a very valid possibility considering that we got rejected by 9750.
We may well have a top here.

Regards,
E. Lang




Hey Guys and Girls

Don’t forget that if you like what you see in my posts and you want to see more :wink: … you can help me get pumped and enthused for the next post by kindly rewarding my modest donations with the thanks they deserve by giving me a few Reputation Points!

Gotta move up you know :cool:

Much Appreciated.

Regards,
E. Lang

PS: Today we’ve made 175 Pips (Closed Trade) and Currently Floating with a short at 25+

You are doing a great job Elang and I am learning a lot from you. Thanks so much for sharing your time and insights.

Ya man - would gladly vote for you.

Question:
Is the magic number 75% coming from both direction (long or short)? I thought it was 25% from a long retrace and 75% on a short retrace.

Hello Ram,

Hope all is well.

It is rather relative, depending on your current bias, what position you have floating.

It is generally 75 to terminate the position and 25 to enter.

EG: If you draw a bullish wave and you don’t have a floating position, you could short when a whole candle closed below 75.

So as you can see in this case you would use 75 for a short entry.

Vice Versa for Bearish W40 waves.

Dear [B]Pwegner[/B]:

Thank you very much for your kind words! I hope you learn things here that help out with your trading!
And when you get good share everything you know, because there is enough bread for everyone.

We tend to sometimes underestimate that even the simplest of words we say in a place like BabyPips can be the key to unlocking someones padlock of Trading Faults and Dilemmas.

So, share, teach and give thanks :smiley:

Regards,
E. Lang

GBP/USD Trade #2

CHART 2

Active Wave 2:
H: 9728 L: 9635

ENTRY: 1.9714
SL: Currently Floating
CURRENT PROFIT: +79

We determine that a new wave is active by noticing a correction of a valid W40.
(At Least 40 Pips prior to the correction)

  • We redraw our fibonnacci levels*
  • We disregard the previous W40.1 fibonacci levels*

OUR BIAS: No one “whole” candle has closed over 75.0% Fibonnacci Level of the newly drawn W40.2 (40 Pip Wave) so we hold Short, until a whole candle closes over.

Regards,
E. Lang


Hi guys just a quick heads up,

It is possible that we only have 1 Active Wave with H: 9777 and L: 9635 and not two ( W 40.1 and W 40.2 )

This would give us a 75 Short termination level of 9741.

Nobody draws perfect waves :rolleyes: … don’t hate me :smiley:

Either way we will see what happens.

Regards,
E. Lang

We had a whole candle close above 75% of W 40.2, but the reason why that happened is:

[B]“Rumors in the market of a U.S. Naval vessel struck by an Iranian missle”[/B]

*The dollar just sold off on vague rumors of US action in Iran. The rumors are variously that there has been some kind of contact between US and Iranian naval vessels in the Persian Gulf or that the US is going to take some action in the near future. Looks like the story has run it course and the dollar-selling/Treasury buying has run its course.

*US officials denying Iranian conflict rumors

*US officials saying Iran story not true

*The rumor was that Iran had launched a missile strike against a US nay ship, now being denied by Pentagon official via Reuters

My bias is still short and i consider this termination signal negative as it was largely emotion and news influenced a spike of fear and confusion.

Some people who were short, got scared by the news, thats all.

Regards,
E. Lang

GBP/USD Trade #2

CHART 3

Active Wave 3:
H: 9738 L: 9635

ENTRY: 1.9714
SL: Currently Floating
CURRENT PROFIT: +25

We determine that a new wave is active by noticing a correction of a valid W40.
(At Least 40 Pips prior to the correction)

  • We redraw our fibonnacci levels*
  • We disregard the previous W40.2 fibonacci levels*

OUR BIAS: No one “whole” candle has closed over 25.0% Fibonnacci Level of the newly drawn W40.3 (40 Pip Wave) so we hold Short, until a whole candle closes over.

Regards,
E. Lang


The attached chart is also a possibility for W 40.1

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9625; § 1.9673; (R1) 1.9744; More
Despite rising further to 1.9777, cable failed to stay firmly above 1.9750 resistance. Subsequent retreat has pushed cable to below 1.9675 minor support with mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. A short term top should be formed at 1.9777 and further consolidation is in favor to follow with risk of pulling back towards 1.9587 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9261 to 1.9777 at 1.9580. However, we’d expect downside to be contained above 1.9452 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.9261 to 1.9777 at 1.9458) and bring rally resumption.

On the upside, above 1.9777 again will indicate rally from 1.9261 has already resumed for next upside target of 1.9846 high and then 138.2% projection of 1.8090 to 1.9142 from 1.8517 at 1.9917.
In the bigger picture, correction from 1.9846 has completed after three waves down to 1.9261. Break of 1.9846 high will confirm that rally from 1.8517 has resumed. However, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches key cluster resistance of 2.0106 (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067).

On the downside, it will take a break below 1.9452 support to indicate argue that the whole rise from 1.9261 has completed and shift short term focus back to the downside.

Regards,
E. Lang