Some of my thoughts + Trading System

UPDATE / Chart 6 / Wave 4

L: 9827
H: 9913

Correction probability: up to 50 pips

You can find charts 1 to 5 in the previous post guys.

Regards,
E. Lang


Elang

Hey there. Yes I with you on yesterday being a VERY boring day for the GDP/USD. I got it in early Monday morning (Long) and only bagged 21 pips when I closed the position. Quick question, are you using 15m charts now for your entry/exit analysis? I noticed on your charts with this time frame. How is that working for ya? Well keep up the great educational posts. Thanks

ahefner33

I’ve closed my long with +76 pips.

Even though there is a good chance the price will come back up now to resume the rally i’m leaving my trading desk so i’m closing out all my positions and i don’t care if i’m missing out on the trade of the century, because there will be another one tomorrow :wink:

It will be bad news if the price decisively breaks the upwards trend line which you can see on the attached chart, i would expect a bounce of that and a resumption for 2.0000

More on Monday guys,
Good luck to everyone and trade safely!

Regards,
E. Lang


Good morning guys,

23.01.06: “It will be bad news if the price decisively breaks the upwards trend line which you can see on the attached chart”

Well call me a donut, but it did and it went weee all the way down.

After looking at the charts today, i am glad i closed my long at .9875

I remember saying that it would be a good bullish signal for a whole candle to close over .9850 on the H4 chart. Obviously though the bears over powered the bears and managed to take the price down before a whole candle formation completed.

The price is currently around the .9770 level now.

Considering all the bearish signals we had on the larger time frames we have two probabilities having in mind the facts now.

  1. Either we have the top finaly formed and we are going to pop back down into the consolidation channel of .9833 LOW to .9850 HIGH after ofcourse breaking through R turned S of 9750/9755

OR

  1. We consider this decline a correction of L: .9587 H: .9913 with 50% at .9752, 61% at .9713

For now the decline seems to have lost steam at the 50% level of .9752/ish.
If this level holds we will see a rise back to test the new H of .9587, a break of which will signal the resumption of the rise towards .9917 and 2.000 Psy-R.

We should have some sort of confirmatory movement to the upside or downside when London opens.

The bears seem to be taking over i feel… and i can’t blame the poor bulls, they waited for so long to get a chance at .9846 and sorta of blew it.

Clouded and mysterious the bear side is, my fellow pippawans.
Patient we must be untill these intentions stronger become… hai! :smiley:

If you are short already, your targets should be: .9712 > 9590
If you aren’t short yet, short when the price breaks below .9750 and you have a good E-S/E MA Cross over on H4

5/10 EMA Crossover or 6 EMA 13 SMA Crossover

If price action in the next hour complements the present i will be shorting once i get a good MACD Crossover on H4 [ Note the attached H4 chart ]

Other General Sentiments:


GBP

Sterling rallied up yesterday to get over the historical resistance at 1.9850s to reach to 1.9917, but it got back to close at 1.9812. This move is a little bit risky, so we expect Sterling today to drop down until 1.9760s then might give it another try to move up to 1.9850s and then 1.9880s levels.

The general trend is up as far as 1.8850and 1.8460 remain intact, targets will be at 1.9858 and 2.0000.

The key resistance at 1.9850 and the key support at 1.8960.

Support: 1.9790, 1.9751, 1.9723, 1.9704, 1.9674
Resistance: 1.9822, 1.9860, 1.9893, 1.9917, 1.9946
Recommendation: We expect selling sterling below1.9840 with a target at 1.9760 and stop loss above 1.9893.


Regards,
E. Lang



Guys,

Remember to maintain your composure.

Wait for a good EMA Cross before you short!

We broke below .9750 R turned S / 25% of L: .9260 to H: .9913

There is plenty of pips to come, the important thing is to keep diciplined, nobody else can force you to do it but yourself.

The sooner and more often, the better.

Don’t forget you are the Boss and the Employee here.

Regards,
E. Lang

PS: Note on the attached chart, how precisely the fib levels 75%, 38.2 and 50% align with previous R and S. It’s beautiful

PSS: The news!! : Easy-Forex: The Financial Calendar


GBP/USD

Cable retreats sharply after rally from 1.9261 was limited at 1.9913. Break of 1.9771 support, with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD suggest a short term top is formed. At this point further consolidation is expected to follow with pullback towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.9685).

However, downside should be contained by 1.9588 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.9261 to 1.9913 at 1.9587) and bring another rise.
On the upside, above 1.9913 will indicate recent rise from 1.9261 has resumed for 138.2% projection of 1.8090 to 1.9142 from 1.8517 at 1.9971 and then 2.0000 psychological resistance.

In the bigger picture, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067). Right now, bearish divergence is being displayed in daily MACD and weekly RSI. However, a break below 1.9588 is needed to turn short term outlook neutral first. Otherwise, further rally is still in favor.




This is a Logical Correction, so don’t chicken out just yet.

The MAs: E-5/E-10 or E-6/S-13 may crossover around this area, but that would most likely be due to the consolidative action taking place now, rather than a rally.

Never the less price action above .9800 will indicate the rally has resumed for retest of .9913 > 2.000

Regards,
E. Lang





This is currently a correction of 38.2 % on H4, if we manage to break through this we will be targeting .9588 next.

Considering that we are bouncing of 38.2 % it is possible that the correction on M15 may be larger than the last few.

Price action above .9771 may mean the rally has resumed for the last high of .9913

If you haven’t i reccommend you break even now or at least move your stop loss to -10.

Try and minimize your losses at all times.

My bet is that we will reach at least 50% on H4 before retracing to test the highs or maybe not, maybe this was it and the bears are taking us back down to .9260… we never know, humans, hence the market is difficult to predict at moments like this.

Regards,
E. Lang



Good morning guys,

Not much has changed since yesterday, i expected a little more down movement, but it seems we will need London to open for that to happen.

H4: Bearish, so look only for short trades
D1: RSI is still over 50, but i feel we will have it dip below finally today, which will be an even bigger indication of bearish intentions.

Right now on H4 the price is located right below 38.2% of .9260 to .9913 at 9653/ish

It stalled after it broke 38.2 on H4 the price started ranging on M15.
Our current wave is with a H: .9700 and L:.9643

A break above .9700 will indicate an attempt at .9770
A break below .9643 will resume the decline to 50% of .9260 to .9913 at .9588

Price action above .9770 as i mentioned yesterday will indicate rally resumption to retest .9913 > x > 2.0000

I personally set my target to .9600 before i left yesterday, i was hoping it would have been hit by now, but obviously that wasn’t the case.

It is possible that we may have a larger upwards corrective wave (Corrective waves are opposite the direction of the trend) since we’ve hit 38.2 and then have a resumption to test 50%.

It is also possible that the price doesn’t correct unordinarily and just declines to 50% directly.

Either way the overall momentum is bearish, so look only for short trades as most long signals will be corrections and probably wount go too far at this time.

If you are not short yet a good entry is below .9643

Move your stop losses and minimize your risk if you haven’t already done so.

Regards,
E. Lang



As you can see guys the short term descending trend line has been broken.

If the price continues this movement our next targets will be .9970 > .9800 > .9913 respectively

As i said in my previous post today:

“It is possible that we may have a larger upwards corrective wave (Corrective waves are opposite the direction of the trend) since we’ve hit 38.2 and then have a resumption to test 50%.”

That movement is currently taking place, so if .9970 holds we may have another impulsive decline to retest 50%, otherwise its back up to test the highs.

Regards,
E. Lang





I wanted to brag as my broker Forex.com / GAIN Capital has finaly released the Beta version of their new Trading Platform.

The UI is very user friendly with soft, mild, relaxing colours.

It is totaly configurable a la Marketiva, so you can switch things around resize, pile, stack, pin down, detach from platform if you want to move a particular window to another monitor.

Regards,
E. Lang


Hey i just wanted to let you know that I am using your system you developed. I have had good success with it when I stick to it lol. I am still a noob to forex and still demo trade with emotional impulses that get me into trouble. Anyway thanks for posting.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9543; § 1.9612; (R1) 1.9667; More

Cable continues to struggle around 1.9588 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.9261 to 1.9913 at 1.9587) and is still bounded in tight range trading today.At this point, further decline is still in favor as long as cable stays below 1.9679 minor resistance. Sustained break of 1.9588 will bring further weakness towards rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9467).

On the upside, above 1.9679 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 1.9913 has completed after drawing support from 1.9588 cluster support. Rebound should follow in such case. But still, break of 1.9913 is needed to indicate recent rise from 1.9261 has resumed for 138.2% projection of 1.8090 to 1.9142 from 1.8517 at 1.9971 and then 2.0000 psychological resistance. Otherwise, risk of another fall remains.

In the bigger picture, as discussed before, in case of further rise, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches key 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067) as the whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 could complete at or below this level.
Right now, we already have bearish divergence conditions in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. sustained break of 1.9588 cluster support will be the a warning that whole rise from 1.8517 has completed earlier than we thought. Break of mentioned rising trend line support will confirm such case and bring much deeper decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237). Decisive break of this 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed and much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818).

Good morning guys,

We are still looking only for short positions for the time being, try not to enter long as it will most likely be a correction.

I am currently eye-ing 61.8% on H4.

Daily RSI is dipping below 50%.
MACD is below 0
Stochastics are bearish

Naturally there are two possibilities, one bearish and one bullish.
Although the factors are overwhelmingly biased to the bearish side at this point in time we need to be prepared for any outcome.

On the downside: A break below .9558 will signal the break of the trading range and resumption of the decline for 61.8% on H4 and perhaps even 75%.

On the upside, the possibility is that we have a bounce off 50% on H4, in which case we will consider the decline from 9913 merely a correction of the rally. We will never the less still need take out the recent top of 9679 to solidify the move upwards, towards targets .9734 > 9913 > 2.0 Psy R

Regards,
E. Lang



There is a potential Long play on GBP/JPY

The charts speak for themselves.

Regards,
E. Lang


Hello guys,

Not much has changed since i posted earlier today.

The bias is still bearish regardless of the scary looking dojis on H4.

As long as the decending trendline resistance remains in tact everything still looks bearish to me.

Regards,
E. Lang



UPDATE:

The price continues to decline.
Trading days like today are not for the novice trader, today only people with great patience trade.

My sentiment is that the price will continue to declines untill at least a little bit below 61.8 where it will coincide with the ascending Trendline Support on D1.

Two things will happen as always when we reach our target.

A: We have a bounce off, which means we will concider the bearish price action from 9913 a correction and in opposite direction to the main trend (bullish)

OR

B: We will break below the trend line and weeeeeee down to targets the likes of 9422 > 9260, which means we will consider the decline from 9913 as impulsive and in the direction of the new trend (bearish)

Of course there is also the possibility that neither of these manifest and that im just a sorry wannabe caramel donut of a trader :slight_smile:

Don’t forget to set your Stop Losses!

Regards,
E. Lang



Good morning Guys,

Yesterday, didn’t go much as planned, rather the price bounced of 50% not reaching 61.8% nor the ascending trendline Support.

If you are not already long you may long after the break of .9679 with targets: .9734 > .9913 > 2.000 Psy-R

We have a clear EMA/SMA Cross Over on M30, H1 and H4 so its all good.

You will notice that RSI didn’t mange to close / break below 50, rather it bounced, this is very common when the price action is confirmed by RSI as Corrective, you will notice this on small as well as large time frames.

STOP LOSSES should be around .9613 or .9547 depending on your targets.

We may have an awkward possibilty of the price meeting R at .9734 and then bouncing back down to test 50% or .9547, in any other case its .9913 next.

For now the facts have us assume that bearish price action from .9913 to .9547 is a corrective decline to 50% of the Rally started at .9260 with High of .9913 - Since it is corrective, it is in the OPPOSITE direction of the trend, hence the main trend is upwards.

The intraday trend is Bullish - So we look ONLY for long opportunities today, do not sell corrections today, rather buy on dip of the retracement as today will mostly be Higher Highs and Lower Lows (Supposedly) > :slight_smile: There are no guarantees.

Regards,
E. Lang


GBP/USD

After failing to stay firmly below 1.9588 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.9261 to 1.9913 at 1.9587), cable stages a strong rebound today, breaking above 1.9769 resistance with 4 hours MACD pushed back above signal line. The fall from 1.9913 should have already completed at 1.9547. At this point, further rebound is expected to follow as long as cable stays above 1.9614 support. Break of 1.9735 resistance will encourage a retest of 1.9913 high. On the downside, below 1.9614 again will put 1.9547 low back into focus and bring will indicate fall from 1.9913 has resumed for rising trend line (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9471) support.

In the bigger picture, a strong break above 1.9679 resistance will that case that rally from 1.9261 is still in progress. In such case, further rise could be seen to retest 1.9913 high and break will confirm whole rally from 1.8517 has resumed. But still, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches key 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067) as the whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 could complete at or below this level.

Right now, we already have bearish divergence conditions in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Sustained break of 1.9588 cluster support will be the a warning that whole rise from 1.8517 has completed earlier than we thought. Break of mentioned rising trend line support will confirm such case and bring much deeper decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237). Decisive break of this 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed and much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818).


[B]Sterling Rebounds, Dollar Retreats [/B]

Sterling staged a strong rebound across the board after the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, whose clients include UK Treasury and BoE, raised its forecast for U.K. economic growth to 2.75% this year, from Oct’s 2.5% forecast. Also, one more rate hike is needed to bring inflation back to BoE’s target of 2%. Sterling remains firm despite a weaker than expected housing report showing Nationwide House Price Index slowed to 0.3% mom, 9.3% yoy growth in Jan. Meanwhile, dollar retreats today ahead of Jan conference board consumer confidence which is expected to rise slightly from 109.0 to 109.1.

Just so you know why what happened… happened.

The price action today can give any trader a headache.

Don’t put yourself down if you had a trade go bad, occasions like these take the steam out of everyone, the key here is to be patient.

The bias is still bullish and we’re looking to break over 9665 to resume.

On the downside, if we break 9630 we may hit a few losses that will trigger a sell downwards and if we break 9613 it all bearish from there on.

For now though we are still keeping our heads up, don’t forget to place your Stop Losses!

Regards,
E. Lang


The bears are obviously not taking any crap today.

They did not allow one candle to close above .9679 and everyone was waiting for a break there, no luck.

On the low next targets are 9613 then 9547.
However if 9613 holds we may see a retest of 9695 today and if we have an upbreak of that, THEN we may consider looking forward to 9734 > 9913

If we break below 9547 then we will consider 9547 to 9695 a correction, and corrections are in the opposite direction of the main trend.

The bulls traded with confidence today, but only till the point when they had to show what they were good for… and they bannana peel slipped right where they shouldnt have.

The upward trend line on H1 has been broken and thats bearish enough as an intent, at the moment its all a little confusing. H4 says long, H1 says short, D1 has mixed signals… it is difficult to trade right now, your best bet is to trade solely S and R at this point. The bears have shown their superiority today so im putting my chips on them for the day. Tomorrow however could be another story.

Once more don’t put your self down, today was a whacky and whiplashy trading day. Take a look at the PRO Trading forums and even some of the biggest brokers out there, you will notice everyone is frustrated today with this pair… talk less about EUR/USD.

Trade carefully and set your stop losses!!

Regards,
E. Lang