Some of my thoughts + Trading System

This is currently a correction of 38.2 % on H4, if we manage to break through this we will be targeting .9588 next.

Considering that we are bouncing of 38.2 % it is possible that the correction on M15 may be larger than the last few.

Price action above .9771 may mean the rally has resumed for the last high of .9913

If you haven’t i reccommend you break even now or at least move your stop loss to -10.

Try and minimize your losses at all times.

My bet is that we will reach at least 50% on H4 before retracing to test the highs or maybe not, maybe this was it and the bears are taking us back down to .9260… we never know, humans, hence the market is difficult to predict at moments like this.

Regards,
E. Lang



Good morning guys,

Not much has changed since yesterday, i expected a little more down movement, but it seems we will need London to open for that to happen.

H4: Bearish, so look only for short trades
D1: RSI is still over 50, but i feel we will have it dip below finally today, which will be an even bigger indication of bearish intentions.

Right now on H4 the price is located right below 38.2% of .9260 to .9913 at 9653/ish

It stalled after it broke 38.2 on H4 the price started ranging on M15.
Our current wave is with a H: .9700 and L:.9643

A break above .9700 will indicate an attempt at .9770
A break below .9643 will resume the decline to 50% of .9260 to .9913 at .9588

Price action above .9770 as i mentioned yesterday will indicate rally resumption to retest .9913 > x > 2.0000

I personally set my target to .9600 before i left yesterday, i was hoping it would have been hit by now, but obviously that wasn’t the case.

It is possible that we may have a larger upwards corrective wave (Corrective waves are opposite the direction of the trend) since we’ve hit 38.2 and then have a resumption to test 50%.

It is also possible that the price doesn’t correct unordinarily and just declines to 50% directly.

Either way the overall momentum is bearish, so look only for short trades as most long signals will be corrections and probably wount go too far at this time.

If you are not short yet a good entry is below .9643

Move your stop losses and minimize your risk if you haven’t already done so.

Regards,
E. Lang



As you can see guys the short term descending trend line has been broken.

If the price continues this movement our next targets will be .9970 > .9800 > .9913 respectively

As i said in my previous post today:

“It is possible that we may have a larger upwards corrective wave (Corrective waves are opposite the direction of the trend) since we’ve hit 38.2 and then have a resumption to test 50%.”

That movement is currently taking place, so if .9970 holds we may have another impulsive decline to retest 50%, otherwise its back up to test the highs.

Regards,
E. Lang





I wanted to brag as my broker Forex.com / GAIN Capital has finaly released the Beta version of their new Trading Platform.

The UI is very user friendly with soft, mild, relaxing colours.

It is totaly configurable a la Marketiva, so you can switch things around resize, pile, stack, pin down, detach from platform if you want to move a particular window to another monitor.

Regards,
E. Lang


Hey i just wanted to let you know that I am using your system you developed. I have had good success with it when I stick to it lol. I am still a noob to forex and still demo trade with emotional impulses that get me into trouble. Anyway thanks for posting.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9543; § 1.9612; (R1) 1.9667; More

Cable continues to struggle around 1.9588 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.9261 to 1.9913 at 1.9587) and is still bounded in tight range trading today.At this point, further decline is still in favor as long as cable stays below 1.9679 minor resistance. Sustained break of 1.9588 will bring further weakness towards rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9467).

On the upside, above 1.9679 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 1.9913 has completed after drawing support from 1.9588 cluster support. Rebound should follow in such case. But still, break of 1.9913 is needed to indicate recent rise from 1.9261 has resumed for 138.2% projection of 1.8090 to 1.9142 from 1.8517 at 1.9971 and then 2.0000 psychological resistance. Otherwise, risk of another fall remains.

In the bigger picture, as discussed before, in case of further rise, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches key 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067) as the whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 could complete at or below this level.
Right now, we already have bearish divergence conditions in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. sustained break of 1.9588 cluster support will be the a warning that whole rise from 1.8517 has completed earlier than we thought. Break of mentioned rising trend line support will confirm such case and bring much deeper decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237). Decisive break of this 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed and much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818).

Good morning guys,

We are still looking only for short positions for the time being, try not to enter long as it will most likely be a correction.

I am currently eye-ing 61.8% on H4.

Daily RSI is dipping below 50%.
MACD is below 0
Stochastics are bearish

Naturally there are two possibilities, one bearish and one bullish.
Although the factors are overwhelmingly biased to the bearish side at this point in time we need to be prepared for any outcome.

On the downside: A break below .9558 will signal the break of the trading range and resumption of the decline for 61.8% on H4 and perhaps even 75%.

On the upside, the possibility is that we have a bounce off 50% on H4, in which case we will consider the decline from 9913 merely a correction of the rally. We will never the less still need take out the recent top of 9679 to solidify the move upwards, towards targets .9734 > 9913 > 2.0 Psy R

Regards,
E. Lang



There is a potential Long play on GBP/JPY

The charts speak for themselves.

Regards,
E. Lang


Hello guys,

Not much has changed since i posted earlier today.

The bias is still bearish regardless of the scary looking dojis on H4.

As long as the decending trendline resistance remains in tact everything still looks bearish to me.

Regards,
E. Lang



UPDATE:

The price continues to decline.
Trading days like today are not for the novice trader, today only people with great patience trade.

My sentiment is that the price will continue to declines untill at least a little bit below 61.8 where it will coincide with the ascending Trendline Support on D1.

Two things will happen as always when we reach our target.

A: We have a bounce off, which means we will concider the bearish price action from 9913 a correction and in opposite direction to the main trend (bullish)

OR

B: We will break below the trend line and weeeeeee down to targets the likes of 9422 > 9260, which means we will consider the decline from 9913 as impulsive and in the direction of the new trend (bearish)

Of course there is also the possibility that neither of these manifest and that im just a sorry wannabe caramel donut of a trader :slight_smile:

Don’t forget to set your Stop Losses!

Regards,
E. Lang



Good morning Guys,

Yesterday, didn’t go much as planned, rather the price bounced of 50% not reaching 61.8% nor the ascending trendline Support.

If you are not already long you may long after the break of .9679 with targets: .9734 > .9913 > 2.000 Psy-R

We have a clear EMA/SMA Cross Over on M30, H1 and H4 so its all good.

You will notice that RSI didn’t mange to close / break below 50, rather it bounced, this is very common when the price action is confirmed by RSI as Corrective, you will notice this on small as well as large time frames.

STOP LOSSES should be around .9613 or .9547 depending on your targets.

We may have an awkward possibilty of the price meeting R at .9734 and then bouncing back down to test 50% or .9547, in any other case its .9913 next.

For now the facts have us assume that bearish price action from .9913 to .9547 is a corrective decline to 50% of the Rally started at .9260 with High of .9913 - Since it is corrective, it is in the OPPOSITE direction of the trend, hence the main trend is upwards.

The intraday trend is Bullish - So we look ONLY for long opportunities today, do not sell corrections today, rather buy on dip of the retracement as today will mostly be Higher Highs and Lower Lows (Supposedly) > :slight_smile: There are no guarantees.

Regards,
E. Lang


GBP/USD

After failing to stay firmly below 1.9588 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.9261 to 1.9913 at 1.9587), cable stages a strong rebound today, breaking above 1.9769 resistance with 4 hours MACD pushed back above signal line. The fall from 1.9913 should have already completed at 1.9547. At this point, further rebound is expected to follow as long as cable stays above 1.9614 support. Break of 1.9735 resistance will encourage a retest of 1.9913 high. On the downside, below 1.9614 again will put 1.9547 low back into focus and bring will indicate fall from 1.9913 has resumed for rising trend line (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9471) support.

In the bigger picture, a strong break above 1.9679 resistance will that case that rally from 1.9261 is still in progress. In such case, further rise could be seen to retest 1.9913 high and break will confirm whole rally from 1.8517 has resumed. But still, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches key 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067) as the whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 could complete at or below this level.

Right now, we already have bearish divergence conditions in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Sustained break of 1.9588 cluster support will be the a warning that whole rise from 1.8517 has completed earlier than we thought. Break of mentioned rising trend line support will confirm such case and bring much deeper decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237). Decisive break of this 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed and much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818).


[B]Sterling Rebounds, Dollar Retreats [/B]

Sterling staged a strong rebound across the board after the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, whose clients include UK Treasury and BoE, raised its forecast for U.K. economic growth to 2.75% this year, from Oct’s 2.5% forecast. Also, one more rate hike is needed to bring inflation back to BoE’s target of 2%. Sterling remains firm despite a weaker than expected housing report showing Nationwide House Price Index slowed to 0.3% mom, 9.3% yoy growth in Jan. Meanwhile, dollar retreats today ahead of Jan conference board consumer confidence which is expected to rise slightly from 109.0 to 109.1.

Just so you know why what happened… happened.

The price action today can give any trader a headache.

Don’t put yourself down if you had a trade go bad, occasions like these take the steam out of everyone, the key here is to be patient.

The bias is still bullish and we’re looking to break over 9665 to resume.

On the downside, if we break 9630 we may hit a few losses that will trigger a sell downwards and if we break 9613 it all bearish from there on.

For now though we are still keeping our heads up, don’t forget to place your Stop Losses!

Regards,
E. Lang


The bears are obviously not taking any crap today.

They did not allow one candle to close above .9679 and everyone was waiting for a break there, no luck.

On the low next targets are 9613 then 9547.
However if 9613 holds we may see a retest of 9695 today and if we have an upbreak of that, THEN we may consider looking forward to 9734 > 9913

If we break below 9547 then we will consider 9547 to 9695 a correction, and corrections are in the opposite direction of the main trend.

The bulls traded with confidence today, but only till the point when they had to show what they were good for… and they bannana peel slipped right where they shouldnt have.

The upward trend line on H1 has been broken and thats bearish enough as an intent, at the moment its all a little confusing. H4 says long, H1 says short, D1 has mixed signals… it is difficult to trade right now, your best bet is to trade solely S and R at this point. The bears have shown their superiority today so im putting my chips on them for the day. Tomorrow however could be another story.

Once more don’t put your self down, today was a whacky and whiplashy trading day. Take a look at the PRO Trading forums and even some of the biggest brokers out there, you will notice everyone is frustrated today with this pair… talk less about EUR/USD.

Trade carefully and set your stop losses!!

Regards,
E. Lang




Good Morning Guys,

For the moment the bears are still in control of the price.
London hasn’t opened yet, so we may see some buying / selling when that happens.

Under 9610 may push us down to 9588 > 9545
Over 9640 may push us up to test 9695

H4 Has gone consolidative for now, so we may see a break up or down, it depends on what the bias proves to be. At the moment i am more inclined towards a test of the Lows rather than the Highs.

Good trading

Regards,
E. Lang




I will be happy to communicate with all and any of you on a daily basis.

I use Yahoo Messenger: [email protected]

You may download it from here: Yahoo! Messenger - Chat, Instant message, SMS, PC Calls and More

Regards,
E. Lang
PS: Check the post before this for new chart updates.

My Limit order was hit for my Short .9624 @ .9564 for 60 Pips profit

For now i am going to wait and see how the market reacts to .9547.
I will most likely short again after i see some more comfirmatory bearish action.

I will be looking to short on a retracement spike.

Regards,
E. Lang


[B]GBP/USD[/B]

[B]Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9583; § 1.9638; (R1) 1.9682; [/B]
Cable is also bounded in tight range today. Rebound from 1.9547 lacked decisive momentum and was limited at 1.9695. Nevertheless, with 4 hours MACD pushed back above signal line, a short term top could be formed at 1.9547 low and hence, further rebound is still in favor to come as long as cable stays above this low. On the upside, Break of 1.9735 resistance will encourage a retest of 1.9913 high. Meanwhile, break of 1.9547 low will indicate fall from 1.9913 has resumed for rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9480).

In the bigger picture, a strong break above 1.9679 resistance will save the case that rally from 1.9261 is still in progress. In such case, further rise could be seen to retest 1.9913 high and break will confirm whole rally from 1.8517 has resumed. But still, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches key 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067) as the whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 could complete at or below this level.

Right now, we already have bearish divergence conditions in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Sustained break of 1.9588 cluster support will be the a warning that whole rise from 1.8517 has completed earlier than we thought. Break of mentioned rising trend line support will confirm such case and bring much deeper decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237). Decisive break of this 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed and much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818).

[B]Markets Look Forward to US GDP and FOMC Statement [/B]

Dollar remains bounded in tight range ahead of FOMC announcement and a handful of economic data today. Markets will likely remain quiet before US Q4 GDP data where volatility should jump up. A solid 2.9% growth is expected in the Q4 GDP and if that’s confirmed, dollar will likely be boosted as expectation will then be built up for a more upbeat FOMC statement that reflect recent improvements of growth outlook.

Fed is widely expected to keep its target rate unchanged at 5.25% today. Once again the focus will be on the accompanying statement. There were three major developments since last meeting in Dec. Economic indicators has be resilient and showed that the US economy grew near potential in the fourth quarter. Inflation eased moderately but the pace certainly slow. More importantly, Fed members has shifted to a more hawkish stance in their speeches, saying that growth outside housing sector remains firm and inflation pressure may moderate slower than they would like to see. Hence, the statement’s wordings on inflation is not expected to change but the wordings about “recent indicators have been mixed” could be modified to reflect the current growth outlook, leaving the statement a slightly more hawkish statement than the prior one.

A series of better than expected key economic data, in particular the retails sales and trade balance, pointed to a stronger growth in the US economy in the last quarter of 2006. Consensus expects that US GDP has grown at a quicker pace of 2.9% in Q4, comparing to prior quarter’s 2.0%. GDP price index growth is expected to drop from 1.9% to 1.7% while core PCE rise is expected to stay at 2.2%, suggesting that price pressure continues to moderate slowly. Chicago PMI is expected to rise slightly from 51.6 to 52.0 in Jan while construction spending is expected to rebound from Nov’s -0.2% to 0.1% rise in Dec. ADP employment data, which is used as preview to Non-farm payroll, is expected to 122k job growths in Jan.

Euro was steady after yesterday’s Germany CPI data which saw a surprised drop of -0.1% mom in Jan. Just released, Germany retail sales rose much more than expected by 2.4% in Dec, comparing to prior - 0.7% and expectation of 1.3%. More data from the Eurozone will be featured today including Germany and Eurozone unemployment, Eurozone consumer confidence. HICP inflation is expected to accelerate from Dec’s 1.9% to Jan’s 2.1%.

Swiss franc remains pressured on carry trade and is pressing record low against euro with EUR/CHF at 1.6253. KOF Leading indicator, which serves as a predictor of further economic activities, is expected to continues it’s downtrend that started last Jul and fell further from 1.6 to 1.56 in Jan. UK Gfk consumer confidence is expected to drop further from -8 to -9 in Jan.

Since the trend is bearish we accept that we must have:

  1. Lower Lows
  2. Lower Highs
  3. All movements in the opposite direction of the trend are corrections as long as the level of correction does not exceed critical levels of its wave eg. 61.8% - 75%

As i mentioned before, i had my Limit order set above S of .9547 as i didn’t want to loose pips in a possible whiplashing bounce.

There are only two ways i consider R or S broken:

  1. The price violates the level then retraces to confirm it before continuing with the trend.
  2. The price breaks through so decisively that the earliest or first level of correction is far below that of the R / S level broken.

In this case what happened is #1, the price broke…
At this point i was waiting for a retrace, preferable a test of the S so i could buy on the tip of the correction.

Considering that the trend is bearish i assume that the correction should start latest around the 75% level. However seeing as 50% - 61.8% was also R/S of .9547 it was logical to accept that as a good retracement entry point.

My second short for today was made at .9542 on the M1 chart so i could surgically pin point the entry.

I am hoping for a break of.9524 now, then 61.8% on H4 @ .9509 > .9452 > 75% @ .9424 > .9315 etc.

On the upside we will need a break of .9550 > .9696 to confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

Regards,
E. Lang






hello elang,
this is a great thread and i loved reading it ,your outlook on life is very mature and your information really helped me, looking forward to reading more
cheers and good luck

langAs per my post today:

“I am hoping for a break of .9524 B[/B] now, then 61.8% on H4 @ .9509 B[/B] > .9452 (To Come) > 75% @ .9424 (To Come) > .9315 (To Come)etc.”

From here onwards its pretty clean.
Redraw your Fibonaccis on every retrace and move your stop loss.

Regards,
E. Lang

Your comments are much appreciated Pipsareaus,

I am happy i’ve been able to help you with anything.
Stick around.
Regards,
E. Lang