Some of my thoughts + Trading System

Good morning guys,

I feel we might have a correction taking place of L .9535 to H .9720, so i’ve terminated my position for now with 103 Pips in the bag.

The trend is still bullish and if the correction takes place i will be longing again on the correctional dip.

We have 4 scenarios:

  1. The price corrects the rise from L. 9535 and bounces of 25% currently around .9673, which is just by Intra day support of .9670, a break below here and we will be going for 38.2%

  2. The price corrects the rise from L .9535 and bounces of 38.2 currently around .9650 and approximately the Midline of yesterdays price action.

  3. Consolidative price action from H of .9720 continues and we have a break of .9708 mini-short term H and then run for .9720 > .9913

  4. The price corrects, the bulls loose control, the price falls, it takes out .9670 > .9650 > .9588 and the dark side plagues the galaxy, we all suffer terrible, terrible, unimaginable margin calls of a death X_X induced by unhumane year long tortures in a dark and shady prison cell occupied by the fowl stench of long rotten and corroded bodies of rebell traders who by will of destiny where crushed in the vary claws of doom that ironically now become your short, and lonely future. Consumed by the inevitable arrival of death and engulfed in a cloud of misery and wounds that never heal nor sease to bleed for they themselves see no future but the darkness amidst them, leaving only our daily trade blogs as a legacy and a prosperous reminder of strenght and will to those who still heed the call of pippaling freedom…bahaha im loony lol, don’t mind me.

Btw. i recommend you buy above 9720 after we have good bullish candles there, preferable over .9747 to be on the safe side

Have a nice day, will update later.

Regards,
E. Lang





A technical reason to be long. (see att. chart)

The current scenario in play is #3:

3. Consolidative price action from H of .9720 continues and we have a break of .9708 mini-short term H and then run for .9720 > .9913

Don’t forget to read the post before this.

Regards,
E. Lang

GBP/USD

Cable’s rebound from 1.9537 extended further to 1.9720 before turning sideway. Short term outlook remains mixed with cable bounded between rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9573) and 1.9475 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.9913 to 1.9480 at 1.9748). On the downside, firm break of mentioned trend line is needed to confirm fall from 1.9913 has resumed. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 1.9745 resistance will indicate rebound from 1.9480 is still in favor for 1.9913 high. Otherwise, further choppy sideway trading will continue.

In the bigger picture, with mentioned trend line support remains intact, the rise from 1.8517 is still in progress and further rally could still be seen that brings cable above 1.9913 high. However, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches key 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067) as the whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 could complete at or below this level.

Meanwhile, we already have bearish divergence conditions in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Sustained break of the trend line support will confirm that whole rise from 1.8517 has completed and bring decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237). Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed earlier than we thought and much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.


Hello guys,

Just updating.
After the price broke out of the pennant, it didn’t have the needed huff and puff to break over .9720 (See attached chart)

It bounced off, tested the R Line of the pennant and broke through it, currently testing the S Line of the penannt, if we break below that i see a fall to .9670 > .9654 etc.

In any other case, the price should bounce of the Pennant S, break through the R again and try and take out .9720 once more

Regards,
E. Lang

Pennant
A continuation pattern in technical analysis formed when there is a large movement in a stock, the flagpole, followed by a consolidation period with converging trendlines, the pennant, followed by a breakout movement in the same direction as the initial large movement, the second half of the flagpole.

As can be seen in the above picture, there is a large rise in the stock, followed by a converging consolidation period that resembles a pennant and a resulting continuation of the initial trend. Pennants, which are similar to flags in terms of structure, have converging trendlines during their consolidation period and they last from one to three weeks. The volume at each period of the pennant is also important. The initial move must be met with large volume while the pennant should have weakening volume, followed by a large increase in volume during the breakout.

Forex Elliott Wave Analysis - GBP/USD

65% confidence - First leg of major correction from 1.9917 has ended at 1.9483 and consolidation would be seen but upside should be capped at 1.9831, bring another selloff

Yesterday’s rally after breaking indicated resistance at 1.9670 has retained our view that decline from 1.9917 has ended at 1.9483 as the a-leg and further choppy consolidation in b-leg would be seen. Above 1.9750 resistance would extend gain to 1.9790/00, however, 1.9830/40 should limit upside and bring subsequent c-leg selloff later this month.

On the bigger picture, wave v from 1.8517 is labelled as (1): 1.8859, (2): 1.8674, (i) : 1.9180, (ii): 1.8835 and (iii): 1.9849 and wave (iv) has ended at 1.9260 and wave (v)has either ended at 1.9917 or would extend marginally to 1.9950 but 2.0000 would cap upside.

On the downside, pullback should be limited to 1.9670 and as long as 1.9617 holds, bullishness remains for gain to 1.9750, then 1.9790. Break of 1.9617 would suggest the b-leg from 1.9483 is possibly developing into a triangle, then sideways trading inside 1.9537-1.9750 would be seen. Only break of 1.9537 would yield re-test of 1.9483.



The best Elliot Wave analysis I found around were at FXS Community - Home. I found out that these guys are great, they analyze major currency pair and give calls on active chat, all for free. My recommendations.

Good morning guys,

I can’t type much now, but will do later.

Check out the chart for now and note the trendlines i’ve drawn.

Yesterdays H and todays R: .9732
Yesterdays L and todays S: .9672

Targets to the low are cluster Resistance turned Support at .9617 > .9582 > Trendline at 75%.

On the upside break of .9732 is needed.

Regards,
E. Lang


BoE is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 5.25% today. There were brief expectation of another rate hike from BoE in Feb after the Jan’s surprise raise. Such expectation has significantly scaled back after BoE minutes which revealed a much tighter than expected vote of 5-4 instead of 7-2. The Jan hike was generally viewed as only a Feb hike pulled ahead instead of the start of a series of hike. Hence,the BoE announcement will likely be a non-event today.

[B]GBP/USD[/B]

[B]Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9674; § 1.9702; (R1) 1.9732; [/B]
Cable continues to trade in choppy sideway trading below mentioned 1.9745 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.9913 to 1.9480 at 1.9748). Short term outlook remains mixed On the downside, firm break of mentioned trend line (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9556) is needed to confirm fall from 1.9913 has resumed. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 1.9745 resistance will indicate rebound from 1.9480 is still in force for 1.9913 high. Otherwise, further choppy sideway trading will continue.

In the bigger picture, with mentioned trend line support remains intact, the rise from 1.8517 is still in progress and further rally could still be seen that brings cable above 1.9913 high. However, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches key 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067) as the whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 could complete at or below this level.

Meanwhile, we already have bearish divergence conditions in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Sustained break of the trend line support will confirm that whole rise from 1.8517 has completed and bring decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237). Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed earlier than we thought and much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.

The price broke the trend lines i had drawn on my chart and broke through yesterdays low of 9672, reaching 38.2% below that after which it bounced off.

My intuation says 38.2 wount hold much, i don’t know why, but i think that if the bears have any chance of solidifying a taking over, they will need to break 50/55 EMA on H4 which is actualy around 50% as you will note on the chart.

Watch out for the BOE and ECB rates today, place your stop losses.

Regards,
E. Lang



Dear Traders,

Very soon i will be reinstalling the internet connection back at home and i will be quitting my second job, so i will have a lot more time to trade.

I will be using SkypeCast to hold live voice conferences, where i as well as any participants will be free to comment and theorise over the course of GBP/USD price movement throughout the day.

I would like to invite everyone and anyone to add me to their Skype list, so we can communicate in the future - Username: effilang

I am also an avid user of Yahoo Messenger so feel free to add me on that too - Username: [email protected]

The SkypeCasts i plan on holding will start at London Open and will go on for a bout 5 hours or so during the day.

I will be happy to talk to any of you, newbees or experienced traders. If you haven’t done this before i recommend you do it, communication and sharing experiences is a very good learning boost.

Regards,
E. Lang

Ok guys,

BOE left interest rates at 5.25.

The mass was expecting a hike, for some reason i didn’t think that was gonna happen.

The reaction wasnt too volatile untill we had a “no comment” statement from the officials, which gave NOTHING to the bulls worth hanging on to, so the bears took advantage and pummeled the price down to where we’ve all been waiting for it to go > 50%, we also took out some stops and im sure a lot of people Liquidated their longs, so this also contributed to the volatility.

On the downside:
For now if we have a good break of 50% we will run for 61% and then 75% which is around the trend line.

On the upside:
We could have a bounce of 50% but i doubt there would be any bulls at the moment with enough steam to take the price back up immediately, for now i am a bear with a set stop loss.

Regards,
E. Lang




Ok 61.8% is out but we don’t have a confirmed break yet.

If you wan’t to play it safe and smart terminate your shorts here considering you entered around the 9680-90 area.

I shorted at .9680 but i woun’t square untill i know it woun’t go down any further and i will be relying mainly on candle stick patterns and my MAs to determine that.

If the price closed above .9620 it will start consolidating over 61.8 i feel and that is when i will terminate, as during a consolidation the breakout may be Bullish or Bearish.

Either way, having gone down this far, i think we will test the Trendline around 75%, unless we have a lot of bulls live and ready to fight back, but after the BOE rate decision and ECB no-raise sentiment it doesn’t seem probable.

Regards,
E. Lang



CHART UPDATE

ECB: Previous 3.5 / Current 3.5 (No change Duurh)

Next Downside targets are trendline at ~ .9584

I will be closing my position there for the day.

UPDATE: closed out at 90+ pips.
I am a happy man.

I will only short if i see hood bearish action under the trend line.

SET YOUR STOP LOSSES!

Regards,
E. Lang






Hello guys,

We have about 90 minutes left to the close of the current H4 candle the closer we get to the close the more of a fight the bulls will put up to try and keep the candle close above the trend line, the bears will be attempting the opposite.

If the H4 candles closes below the trend line and we see good bearish candles on the lower time frames close aswell it will be a good signal to short.

Logical Targets are:

100% .9535 > .9480 > .9454 > .9312 > .9260

The declining movement strength is slowing down you will notice that by the ever more oftenly occuring corrections on the smaller time frames, on par to what we had before: big moves, small corrections… now its small moves almost equal correction.

If you haven’t terminated your short yet you must be one hell of a cowboy/girl, i recommend you do so as soon as you start noticing Higher Lows.

Remember if the movement is dominated by bears, it is not acceptable to have Higher Lows, talk less of Higher Highs.

On the Upside:
Bulls will need to take the price over .9657 (38.2%) to earn any authority, for now any bullish movement we see will be at the mercy of the bears. They are holding the bulls on a leash for now.

Targets: .9691 > .9727 > .9732

Keep it safe guys.

Regards
E. Lang


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Elang

What is skypecast and how do we hook up?

Thank You,
Paul

Basically someone needs to host it, and others join in.

https://skypecasts.skype.com/skypecasts/home

Can’t talk much right now, at work.

Regards,
E. Lang

Good morning guys,

Sorry for not posting the first attached image which specifies where you should have shorted today, but the boss was hovering like a hawk.

This is where you should have shorted today. (image 1)

Yesterdays L: .9541 H: .9727 M: .9634

As i recommended yesterday, short again only after we see good bear action under the trend line.

Price action after the break yesterday, held beautifully under the trend line and moves lower today.

You should have shorted around .9570

Targets on the downside: .9541 > .9480 > .9454 > .9312 > .9260

When we hit .9480 we may have a bounce, when this happens draw a fib with 100% .9600 and probable 0% .9480

For now, you can pretty much accept that the bulls are kissing ass.
It’s downhill from here onwars if we break .9480 decisively.

All you need to do is redraw your fibs on every main correction on M15/M30.

Only price action over .9600 can get bulls back in action, but we’d need Martians to zap the statue of liberty for that to happen right now anyway.

Regards,
E. Lang



[B]GBP/USD[/B]

Cable’s steep fall from 1.9731 resumed in early European session today . Break of rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9563) suggest that fall from 1.9913 has already resumed for a retest of 1.9480 low first. Break will confirm and bring further weakness towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237). Touching 1.9603 resistance will turn intraday outlook consolidative first.

In the bigger picture, bearish divergence conditions are being displayed in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Sustained break of the mentioned trend line support will confirm that whole rise from 1.8517. Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed earlier than we thought, before reaching 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067). Much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.

However, a strong rebound from or above 1.9237/61 will indicate that cable might made another high before finally topping out on the above mentioned divergence conditions.

If you are not short yet, u may do so under .9454

If you have not set your SL to b\e yet you might as well.

I recommend you place your SL around or over .9600 if you are not moving to b/e yet.

Regards,
E. Lang


Courtesy of MTI

Forex Videos:

Intro To The Forex
Charting Software
Crown Formation - Yen Charts
Trendlines & Fund. Announ.
GBP/Evening Star/Fib./Trendline
Swiss Consolidation Pennants
EUR 60 minute AB down swing
CHF Trendline Break
GBP 1 hour buying signals
EUR 1hr Buy Zone
JPY candlestick pattern
EUR 60 minute consolidation
JPY Evening Star/Crown
GBP 1 hour trend line /618 bounce
US Dollar VS Swiss
EUR 1 hour consolidation break out
JPY Sell-Off > Indicator Confirm.
GBP 1 hour Up Trend
Pound 60 min chart
Euro Downtrend
Support levels
Euro
Bearish Kings Crown
AB Swings
Analysis Summer 04

Regards,
E. Lang

The Blue decending trendline is what will be maintaining the composure of this bearish move.

The Red lines are support zones or break low points, which we will be using for Short Entry and Position Adding.

Regards,
E. Lang