Some of my thoughts + Trading System

The best Elliot Wave analysis I found around were at FXS Community - Home. I found out that these guys are great, they analyze major currency pair and give calls on active chat, all for free. My recommendations.

Good morning guys,

I can’t type much now, but will do later.

Check out the chart for now and note the trendlines i’ve drawn.

Yesterdays H and todays R: .9732
Yesterdays L and todays S: .9672

Targets to the low are cluster Resistance turned Support at .9617 > .9582 > Trendline at 75%.

On the upside break of .9732 is needed.

Regards,
E. Lang


BoE is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 5.25% today. There were brief expectation of another rate hike from BoE in Feb after the Jan’s surprise raise. Such expectation has significantly scaled back after BoE minutes which revealed a much tighter than expected vote of 5-4 instead of 7-2. The Jan hike was generally viewed as only a Feb hike pulled ahead instead of the start of a series of hike. Hence,the BoE announcement will likely be a non-event today.

[B]GBP/USD[/B]

[B]Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9674; § 1.9702; (R1) 1.9732; [/B]
Cable continues to trade in choppy sideway trading below mentioned 1.9745 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.9913 to 1.9480 at 1.9748). Short term outlook remains mixed On the downside, firm break of mentioned trend line (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9556) is needed to confirm fall from 1.9913 has resumed. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 1.9745 resistance will indicate rebound from 1.9480 is still in force for 1.9913 high. Otherwise, further choppy sideway trading will continue.

In the bigger picture, with mentioned trend line support remains intact, the rise from 1.8517 is still in progress and further rally could still be seen that brings cable above 1.9913 high. However, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches key 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067) as the whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 could complete at or below this level.

Meanwhile, we already have bearish divergence conditions in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Sustained break of the trend line support will confirm that whole rise from 1.8517 has completed and bring decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237). Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed earlier than we thought and much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.

The price broke the trend lines i had drawn on my chart and broke through yesterdays low of 9672, reaching 38.2% below that after which it bounced off.

My intuation says 38.2 wount hold much, i don’t know why, but i think that if the bears have any chance of solidifying a taking over, they will need to break 50/55 EMA on H4 which is actualy around 50% as you will note on the chart.

Watch out for the BOE and ECB rates today, place your stop losses.

Regards,
E. Lang



Dear Traders,

Very soon i will be reinstalling the internet connection back at home and i will be quitting my second job, so i will have a lot more time to trade.

I will be using SkypeCast to hold live voice conferences, where i as well as any participants will be free to comment and theorise over the course of GBP/USD price movement throughout the day.

I would like to invite everyone and anyone to add me to their Skype list, so we can communicate in the future - Username: effilang

I am also an avid user of Yahoo Messenger so feel free to add me on that too - Username: [email protected]

The SkypeCasts i plan on holding will start at London Open and will go on for a bout 5 hours or so during the day.

I will be happy to talk to any of you, newbees or experienced traders. If you haven’t done this before i recommend you do it, communication and sharing experiences is a very good learning boost.

Regards,
E. Lang

Ok guys,

BOE left interest rates at 5.25.

The mass was expecting a hike, for some reason i didn’t think that was gonna happen.

The reaction wasnt too volatile untill we had a “no comment” statement from the officials, which gave NOTHING to the bulls worth hanging on to, so the bears took advantage and pummeled the price down to where we’ve all been waiting for it to go > 50%, we also took out some stops and im sure a lot of people Liquidated their longs, so this also contributed to the volatility.

On the downside:
For now if we have a good break of 50% we will run for 61% and then 75% which is around the trend line.

On the upside:
We could have a bounce of 50% but i doubt there would be any bulls at the moment with enough steam to take the price back up immediately, for now i am a bear with a set stop loss.

Regards,
E. Lang




Ok 61.8% is out but we don’t have a confirmed break yet.

If you wan’t to play it safe and smart terminate your shorts here considering you entered around the 9680-90 area.

I shorted at .9680 but i woun’t square untill i know it woun’t go down any further and i will be relying mainly on candle stick patterns and my MAs to determine that.

If the price closed above .9620 it will start consolidating over 61.8 i feel and that is when i will terminate, as during a consolidation the breakout may be Bullish or Bearish.

Either way, having gone down this far, i think we will test the Trendline around 75%, unless we have a lot of bulls live and ready to fight back, but after the BOE rate decision and ECB no-raise sentiment it doesn’t seem probable.

Regards,
E. Lang



CHART UPDATE

ECB: Previous 3.5 / Current 3.5 (No change Duurh)

Next Downside targets are trendline at ~ .9584

I will be closing my position there for the day.

UPDATE: closed out at 90+ pips.
I am a happy man.

I will only short if i see hood bearish action under the trend line.

SET YOUR STOP LOSSES!

Regards,
E. Lang






Hello guys,

We have about 90 minutes left to the close of the current H4 candle the closer we get to the close the more of a fight the bulls will put up to try and keep the candle close above the trend line, the bears will be attempting the opposite.

If the H4 candles closes below the trend line and we see good bearish candles on the lower time frames close aswell it will be a good signal to short.

Logical Targets are:

100% .9535 > .9480 > .9454 > .9312 > .9260

The declining movement strength is slowing down you will notice that by the ever more oftenly occuring corrections on the smaller time frames, on par to what we had before: big moves, small corrections… now its small moves almost equal correction.

If you haven’t terminated your short yet you must be one hell of a cowboy/girl, i recommend you do so as soon as you start noticing Higher Lows.

Remember if the movement is dominated by bears, it is not acceptable to have Higher Lows, talk less of Higher Highs.

On the Upside:
Bulls will need to take the price over .9657 (38.2%) to earn any authority, for now any bullish movement we see will be at the mercy of the bears. They are holding the bulls on a leash for now.

Targets: .9691 > .9727 > .9732

Keep it safe guys.

Regards
E. Lang


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Elang

What is skypecast and how do we hook up?

Thank You,
Paul

Basically someone needs to host it, and others join in.

https://skypecasts.skype.com/skypecasts/home

Can’t talk much right now, at work.

Regards,
E. Lang

Good morning guys,

Sorry for not posting the first attached image which specifies where you should have shorted today, but the boss was hovering like a hawk.

This is where you should have shorted today. (image 1)

Yesterdays L: .9541 H: .9727 M: .9634

As i recommended yesterday, short again only after we see good bear action under the trend line.

Price action after the break yesterday, held beautifully under the trend line and moves lower today.

You should have shorted around .9570

Targets on the downside: .9541 > .9480 > .9454 > .9312 > .9260

When we hit .9480 we may have a bounce, when this happens draw a fib with 100% .9600 and probable 0% .9480

For now, you can pretty much accept that the bulls are kissing ass.
It’s downhill from here onwars if we break .9480 decisively.

All you need to do is redraw your fibs on every main correction on M15/M30.

Only price action over .9600 can get bulls back in action, but we’d need Martians to zap the statue of liberty for that to happen right now anyway.

Regards,
E. Lang



[B]GBP/USD[/B]

Cable’s steep fall from 1.9731 resumed in early European session today . Break of rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9563) suggest that fall from 1.9913 has already resumed for a retest of 1.9480 low first. Break will confirm and bring further weakness towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237). Touching 1.9603 resistance will turn intraday outlook consolidative first.

In the bigger picture, bearish divergence conditions are being displayed in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Sustained break of the mentioned trend line support will confirm that whole rise from 1.8517. Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed earlier than we thought, before reaching 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067). Much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.

However, a strong rebound from or above 1.9237/61 will indicate that cable might made another high before finally topping out on the above mentioned divergence conditions.

If you are not short yet, u may do so under .9454

If you have not set your SL to b\e yet you might as well.

I recommend you place your SL around or over .9600 if you are not moving to b/e yet.

Regards,
E. Lang


Courtesy of MTI

Forex Videos:

Intro To The Forex
Charting Software
Crown Formation - Yen Charts
Trendlines & Fund. Announ.
GBP/Evening Star/Fib./Trendline
Swiss Consolidation Pennants
EUR 60 minute AB down swing
CHF Trendline Break
GBP 1 hour buying signals
EUR 1hr Buy Zone
JPY candlestick pattern
EUR 60 minute consolidation
JPY Evening Star/Crown
GBP 1 hour trend line /618 bounce
US Dollar VS Swiss
EUR 1 hour consolidation break out
JPY Sell-Off > Indicator Confirm.
GBP 1 hour Up Trend
Pound 60 min chart
Euro Downtrend
Support levels
Euro
Bearish Kings Crown
AB Swings
Analysis Summer 04

Regards,
E. Lang

The Blue decending trendline is what will be maintaining the composure of this bearish move.

The Red lines are support zones or break low points, which we will be using for Short Entry and Position Adding.

Regards,
E. Lang


The price correction reached 25% and bounced off for now.
It will need to break the short term trend line shown in Red to continue the decline.

Targets on the downside: .9457 > .9454 > .9312 > .9260

Regards,
E. Lang


The H4 candle is closing in about 14 minutes, so i guess that is why the bulls are having such a fuss about it, they will attempt to keep the close over .9480 to try and show superiority. They will try to make Higher Highs and Higher Lows.

The bears need to make sure that doesn’t happen and to keep the close on H4 below .9480. They will try to make Lower Highs and Lower Lows.

Updated the trend lines a tad on the attached chart.

The price correction reached 25% and bounced off for now.
It will need to break the short term trend line shown in Red to continue the decline.

Targets on the downside: .9457 > .9454 > .9312 > .9260

Regards,
E. Lang

Sterling Tumbles Further, Euro Still in Range

Sterling continues to weaken across the board today with GBP/USD breaking last week’s low of 1.9480 and EUR/GBP breaking through 0.6670 resistance. Sterling’s weakness was triggered by BoE’s on-hold decision yesterday and further fueled by worse than expected trade deficit which widened to 7.142b from 7.9b. The report highlighted that UK’s exporters are struggling with the high exchange rate of Sterling as exports fell 1.2%. Euro weakens mildly against dollar today but is basically still kept in range. Meanwhile the Japanese yen continues to edge lower as G7 meeting starts today and speculation on yen will be mentioned in the communique fades.
Canadian dollar is boosted higher today after stronger than expected employment report which started the year by adding 89k jobs in Jan, much higher than expectation of 13.5k.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9511; § 1.9618; (R1) 1.9694;

Cable’s decline from 1.9731 continues today by breaking through 1.9480 low, reaching as low as 1.9475 so far. As discussed before, break of rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9563) suggest that fall from 1.9913 has already resumed. Hence, at this point, further decline is expected to be seen towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237) as long as cable stays below 1.9542 support turned resistance.

Touching of 1.9542 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first.
In the bigger picture, bearish divergence conditions are being displayed in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Sustained break of the mentioned trend line support will confirm that whole rise from 1.8517.

Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed earlier than we thought, before reaching 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067). Much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.

However, a strong rebound from or above 1.9237/61 will indicate that cable might made another high before finally topping out on the above mentioned divergence conditions.


Hello everyone,

Hope you’re all doing well and enjoying the weekend, feet kicked up with a beverage in hand, indulging the modest delight of environmental silence far…far away from the busy and exhausting every day office chores and responsibilities.

I love weekends, i don’t know why. I just love relaxing, lazying about… doing practically nothing, i feel like a little kid who told a white lie and managed to slip by and evade any and all responsibility in the world, entirely self satisfied in himself and with no sense or regret or conciousness… just floating away on a fluffy pinky-white cloud of euphoria, saturated in utter lazyness :slight_smile:

I love laying on my couch in a pair of shorts, fingers clinched behing my head, with the courtains retracted, stretching like a cat and once in a while giving out a squeecky sound in turn with a vague curiosity of the location of its origin, just soaking up the warmth of the sun.

I don’t know why im writing this, just thought i should.

I just wanna say, they life can be very hard, its like a big grinder and everyone that goes through it, gets chipped during the journey, sometimes loosing more of themselves than they have wanted to or imagined having needed to sacrifice to get to the other end and reach the exit.

Individuality is one of the most difficult things to retain nowadays. The mass of interactivity encountered on a daily basis with so many vividly different things and people, makes it increasingly problematic for us to retain the naturaly unadulterated colours of our presonality and self, in tact and whole.

I just want to say, know who you are. Spend more time understanding yourself so you can appreciate what you really are, because life is short.

Choose your friends carefully, Don’t suck up to anyone.

Socialize with people who want to have you there, not just who don’t mind.

Befriend only those who you consider no less than yourselves.

Don’t be ashamed to stand alone. People will aknowledge and appreciate the respect and trust you have towards your own ability, self and existence.

Find someone to love and never let them go.

Life is like the FX, i’ts simple, don’t complicate it or you woun’t ever see the benefit.

Regards,
E. Lang