The H4 candle is closing in about 14 minutes, so i guess that is why the bulls are having such a fuss about it, they will attempt to keep the close over .9480 to try and show superiority. They will try to make Higher Highs and Higher Lows.
The bears need to make sure that doesn’t happen and to keep the close on H4 below .9480. They will try to make Lower Highs and Lower Lows.
Updated the trend lines a tad on the attached chart.
The price correction reached 25% and bounced off for now.
It will need to break the short term trend line shown in Red to continue the decline.
Targets on the downside: .9457 > .9454 > .9312 > .9260
Regards,
E. Lang
Sterling Tumbles Further, Euro Still in Range
Sterling continues to weaken across the board today with GBP/USD breaking last week’s low of 1.9480 and EUR/GBP breaking through 0.6670 resistance. Sterling’s weakness was triggered by BoE’s on-hold decision yesterday and further fueled by worse than expected trade deficit which widened to 7.142b from 7.9b. The report highlighted that UK’s exporters are struggling with the high exchange rate of Sterling as exports fell 1.2%. Euro weakens mildly against dollar today but is basically still kept in range. Meanwhile the Japanese yen continues to edge lower as G7 meeting starts today and speculation on yen will be mentioned in the communique fades.
Canadian dollar is boosted higher today after stronger than expected employment report which started the year by adding 89k jobs in Jan, much higher than expectation of 13.5k.
GBP/USD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9511; § 1.9618; (R1) 1.9694;
Cable’s decline from 1.9731 continues today by breaking through 1.9480 low, reaching as low as 1.9475 so far. As discussed before, break of rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9563) suggest that fall from 1.9913 has already resumed. Hence, at this point, further decline is expected to be seen towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237) as long as cable stays below 1.9542 support turned resistance.
Touching of 1.9542 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first.
In the bigger picture, bearish divergence conditions are being displayed in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Sustained break of the mentioned trend line support will confirm that whole rise from 1.8517.
Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed earlier than we thought, before reaching 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067). Much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.
However, a strong rebound from or above 1.9237/61 will indicate that cable might made another high before finally topping out on the above mentioned divergence conditions.