London Breakout 1

That wasn’t an EA. There used to be a Kelly Criterion applet that showed you the odds of having a successful system, providing you had accurate stats to use. Obviously with the results of the 5% risk strategy being all over the map, there was a better chance of consistency with the less risky 2% option proposed by Haydel. It was his EA:)

Hi there gbl83

Thanks for taking the time to respond. Yes, I take your point about the Judas swing - looking back, drawing horizontal lines at the high and low of the 5 candle period (which was the basis of the original system) as opposed to the swing high low trend lines does seem to filter out a few of those swings but I am only it for 15-20 pips in any event and the trading time is good for me and fits into my day. Im not looking at making huge pip gains and I cant spend all day in front of the charts - not looking for much am I lol - just a consistent 15-20 pips a day would suit me just fine!! Any other suggestions apart from this approach? I notice you say you used to trade this system - have you moved on to a better alternative then?

Cheers

The system seems simple and doesn’t consume your time however I just found that the london open can get quite choppy so yeah you might get 10-20 pips on a good day. However because of the “choppiness” at that time of the day you might find yourself 20-30 pips in the red in no time at all.

Being in the red anymore than 10 pips on this system ruins your risk:reward ratio (ie your losses are generally bigger than your winners). Those are just my thoughts and observations and to be honest I didnt persevere long enough with it as I found ICT’s original thread.

You ask if i have moved to an alternative? Yes I have started using ICT’s methods, cant really say it is a system though, more method. Im no pro by any means but i’ve been around long enough to know something with some substance which is what ICT’s methods are full of.

He gives you many tools to work with that you dont need to spend hours on charts with. You have the time at London Open session free i assume if you were looking at trading this system? Well you can use the tools he describes like optimal trade entries, market flow, top down analysis, traders trinity, pivots etc to trade London open. It sounds like a lot which it is but once you know them and what to look for you can plot these on your charts and you wont be staring at the screen for hours.

If you want anymore info let me know

Where can i download ea ?

Where is the chart?

Yiehom,

The strat that RC posted here was originally posted by Ed Revy on the “Forex Strategies Revealed” site

Here’s a link to Ed Revy’s original post with a nice chart showing the set up.

Advanced system #5 (Trend Lines Breakout System) | Forex Strategies & Systems Revealed

I traded the method for a while, IMO it’s good strat but I live in the US eastern time zone and struggled with being wide awake and able to think before the EUR/London open. :56:

Recently the average daily ranges have been noticeably lower than a year ago and GBP hasn’t been as volatile as it was a while back. Because of the lower ADR & volatility this strat might be harder to trade these days.

Having said that, I’d suggest you check out Ed’s original post, read through the babypips thread and then try demo trading the strat. I’ve also seen this method work with some success with AUD/USD & EUR/JYP.

good luck!

Thaks a lot

Forex Gump meta-bumped this thread via Twitter.

Me and my trading team played around with a version of this method back in 2007; looks just like Big Dog from forexfactory in '08. Ah, memories.

Thread Bump

I’ve been looking for a reliable London breakout trade and stumbled across this.

I’ve read the first 15 pages or so of this thread, and every other 20 till the end. I just skimmed through after the first 15 because it looked like most people were just simply drawing the trendlines incorrectly.

I have a couple of questions about this strategy;

First, where did the 90% come from? As far as I can see, with the stated R:R, it is far from that.

Second, as with every strategy, I would like to understand the fundamentals behind this, so I know [I]why[/I] I am entering a position. I understand that the range specified is as such because that is fundamentally the time that London typically makes its daily range. However, I remember reading something about market makers wanting to go towards the daily pivot somewhere (can’t remember where), and would be grateful if someone could clarify this.

Thank you in advance.

Good method, I’m trading it right now. But as any “universla” stuff it requires adjustments for current market situations. For example, recently in my London Breakout I’m facing the situations when before hitting my TP the market swings back, triggers SL, and after several hours resches TP levels. I’m placing my TP about 130-150% of the asia range above/below the range levels and my SL levels are inside the asia range. Also I’m waiting for some movement in one or another direction - for example if market moves 30% outside of the Asia range it can be the trigger.

BTW forgot to say. It is also important to check the width of the Asia session. For example, I prefer to trade when Asia session range something like 30-50 pips (300-500 on 5-digit brokers).

I think whipsaws are nothing than f you presents from the market makers with no real fundamental bearing. Have you been managing to hit the advertised success of 90%?

I believe 90% win rate is almost impossible. Maybe in the short term - 3-6 months when the market conditions are ideal for the system - but in the long run the market is constantly changing, so you needto catch up and tune the system. And usually in the time interval - when market started to changed and you realized that it has changed - you’re getting most of the drawdowns. Plus it takes time for tuning - whic is also losses. I’ve been trading this method (not exactly this one but variation) for over a year and also performed the backtesting for prev 6 years on historical data - andI’m getting something like 50% win rate. But with proper MM I’m getting the positive math expectarion so the whole system looks proiftable. BUT again! In the long run it is absolutely no way to avoid several months of losses. So we need to be prepared :slight_smile:

Thanks!

I think I’ll do a bit of forward testing without the 90% in mind and see where it goes from there!

[QUOTE=“renatusmusic;766781”]Thanks! I think I’ll do a bit of forward testing without the 90% in mind and see where it goes from there![/QUOTE]

Would appreciate if you report back your test results

Regards

Im no longer trading this as my style of trading requires a tight stop loss to maximise lots, which this doesnt give. I did a couple, but theu whipsawed on me unless I used the top of the swing high/low candle for a stop. That sometimes gave out a less than 1:1, and Im not really interested in anything under 3:1.

[QUOTE=“renatusmusic;768066”] Im no longer trading this as my style of trading requires a tight stop loss to maximise lots, which this doesnt give. I did a couple, but theu whipsawed on me unless I used the top of the swing high/low candle for a stop. That sometimes gave out a less than 1:1, and Im not really interested in anything under 3:1.[/QUOTE]

Oh right, thanks for your reply and good luck

Hi
I am interested in your London breakout strategy which you say has a 90% success rate.
Unfortunately, I cannot follow the rules you lay out.
Would it be possible to show your rules using a chart so I can see what one has to do
regards Ken

In the23rd post on this thread, the simplest explanation is you draw the trendlines from the first swing high and swing low within the 5 candle range to the most recent swings on the previous day … no need to wait for the full 5 candles to close.

Below I attached a chart for EUR-USD to show the basic concept, my chart is GMT+2 so the midnight candle is the second from the vertical lines (keyboard: CTR-Y). The 0900 bar is marked with arrows. You see not all days that the trade is clear and the significant movement during the day may actually turn out successful the other way. London Breakout is however a seminal trading strategy; most of the signals are like the one on 4th-jan.


I’m not at my computer during the necessary hours. Is there some way to turn this into an EA?