Scalping Arbitrage EA

This EA wiped out $10,000 demo account in 99% backtest from 2009…

around 100% in 2 weeks on demo! Will it work on real money account?

This kind of EA can only be tested in real accounts. I would be surprised if back tester could even place a trade with it, but the trade would be wrong because these programs require tick data from two (or more) different brokers. In demo, the results would be very misleading because there is seldom any slippage.

Thank you for the response :slight_smile:
I am not too sure if I should run it on a real money account?
That performance is quite suspect to me. It has always hit the TP, except once (->small loss)
Maybe theres bad side as well?

This is a way to get your questions answered. Live webinar event on Wed Dec 14 with Jason Fielder and I think the evening one has openings still.

[FREE ONLINE TRAINING: How To Arbitrage The Forex](http://www.freeforexwebinar.com/Arbitrage-The-Forex/?utm_source=House%20List&utm_medium=Email%20Broadc) 

Read more: 301 Moved Permanently

I forgot to mention in my earlier posting that some brokers don’t allow this kind of scalp trading in real accounts, so demo results are meaningless for these brokers.

Thanks a lot!
I received his e-mail as well, but unfortunately I was unable to attend the webinar!
Was it good?

Way too much hype. Jason has never met an audience he can’t bore. But yes I got what I was looking for by sticking it out. Did you know he has a demo program that you test with? Should be a link in that email plus several videos to explain. I won’t be buying; for now its just a learning experience.

Yes I already tried it, but it is useless because you can’t execute the trades!

Do you know a broker who accepts arbitrage? Or better: who doesn’t explicit forbid it?
I am on Alpari at the moment…
BTW, my account tripled in 2 weeks with the EA above! But unfortunately only on forward-Demo.

You are way ahead of me - I don’t want it to trade for me. I looked at the web site of the OP and didn’t get a warm feeling so I will not run his EA. Public EAs potentially can do a lot of harm.

As I pointed out before, demo can only provide the theoretical results; this kind of strategy can only be tested on a micro account in production. Jason’s web site has recommended brokers. From what I can remember, he said that high volume ECNs with rapid execution are the best. I am still checking into that.

Check out Raygun’s arbitrage EA if you haven’t already. I’ve been talking to him lately, and he’s currently in contact with a few specialists in the industry. The automation he has down fine, what he’s doing now is just to trying to increase the speed of execution and communication between his client to the broker feeds. This would allow more retail arbitrage.

After reading more on arbitrage though, it seems to me the only way to do well in it is to have an institutional account, and that requires $10 000 000.00. From what I hear though, the opportunities there are enough for one to make a solid living off of it, sometimes arbitraging 300 pip differences!

Better start saving…

I tried RR’s and I would say its not ready for prime time - there lots of bugs. Plus I don’t like his approach to handling this kind of trading; maybe he will improve as he learns. Jason’s is miles ahead, but there are still things that don’t make sense (perhaps mistakes). But I am becoming a believer in the concept and can see the potential.

I have to disagree with your opinion about account size. The best way to take advantage is remain under the radar. This kind of arbitrage can only work with market inefficiencies and as long as the inefficiencies are small, there won’t be enough motivation to fix them. So I think a $1 to $5 thousand dollar account would not attract much attention but provide steady profits that essentially are auto generated. But, of course reality is different than theoretical.

He’s currently scheduling the release date for January 1st. He’s currently talking to a few ex-Casio and Texas Instrument programmers to assist in his issues right now, so it won’t be long, I’d say, before RR’s arbitrage catches up to Jason’s, and considering it’s $2000 cheaper, that’s a no brainer for anyone. I’m sure Jason is ahead right now though as he has an actual GUI for his and a simplified order handling procedure. Regardless of which one you use, arbitrage will work. My only problem is figuring when the best times are to find arbitrage opportunities. From Jason’s video, it’s the opening of every week. From RR, I hear they come in bursts and obviously during market discrepancies and low liquidity.

As for your second statement, that’s what I thought in the beginning as well as one’s orders will be filled better.
But apparently this isn’t the case according to a few institutional traders I talked to recently. From what they have said, arbitrage at an institutional level is a far more powerful tool than for a retail trader. From what I hear, the threshold due to slippage issues is at around the $75-100 million mark. I’m not sure if you know how well RR’s doing in regards to his automated trading, but it seems to do much better for the most part at the institutional level; his execution speed hasn’t slowed yet, he still has no slippage, and the spreads/commissions are lower.

Again, I don’t have any personal experience in institutional trading, so I can’t say anything based on my own experience but only from those that have. Perhaps you have, I’m not sure. I still feel arbitrage, if you find the right brokers and have a decent infrastructure to run it, will be profitable for sure.

Regards,
Clark

You mention Jan 1st, but didn’t give the year:D. RR’s will not be ready for Jan 2012 and putting more developers into the mix will ensure that he isn’t. Right now I would rate Jason’s to be a better value for its price than RR’s unless he changes his approach (48 brokers??).

As for trading times, that will be tricky and yes Jason has missed the boat in that regards. He makes it sound like there are many more opportunities than what I would consider to be prudent. At market opening that can mean dozens of pairs suitable for arbitrage on some days. At say 3% risk per trade, how much of your account would you risk? My tolerance would be around 15% at any given time. At other times, the market by nature is bursty and the reasons can be murky. For instance, was the sudden 100 pip move a government intervention or another earthquake in Japan? My comfort level would be the everyday small opportunities like today’s 7 pipper in the USDCAD and stay away from the 100 pippers.

Other than latency effects and broker manipulation have you come up with any other potential losing scenarios? More importantly do have you a plan for dealing with these contingencies? That is where the “black box” auto trader puts you at a real disadvantage because you are relying on someone else’s approach. Of course manual trading gives you the control, but the room for error is large.

One determination I have made already (which Jason pointed out) is that these opportunities last for minutes in many cases (50%). Latency is not as a big an issue as you make it sound and a semi-automated approach is possible and worth considering.

Hahaha, 2012! His goal is the 1st, but who knows. But he spent the majority of today talking to them from what I hear and pretty much done now (I’ve been Skyping him for the majority of today). Does RR’s EA say to use 48 brokers?!!? I didn’t know, I didn’t read the whole thread.

The example video that Jason showed seemed like the arbitrage was endlessly appearing and that’s just not the case, the market has gotten way too efficient for that. As for risk, I feel I would risk less than 1% per trade as in this type of trading, I would place quantity over quality, so a max exposure of 5% is pretty good I think. I don’t know the exit management of Jason’s application, do you exit whenever?

I agree with you to a point in that, if you can find a high probability scalp setups then it’s a lot less risk and it’s the way to go, but I don’t know what the win rate of arbitrage of this manner is, for all I know it could go -100 pips against me after I pay the damn $2000.

I personally am never going to trade RR’s or Jason’s, for that very reason of it being a “black box”, I’d rather program my own arbitrage system based on it, maybe even incoporate triangulation arbitrage as well. But yeah, agreed, latency isn’t as big of a deal here since trades still last a few seconds to minutes.

CodeMeister, do you currently trade any arbitrage methods?

Sorry, I’m quite new here. Can you give me a link to RR’s EA? I didn’t find it.

He is on Forex Factory not BP. There is no EA.

Ok Thanks :slight_smile:
Jason is saying he will stop selling the Arbitrage software on Monday.
I would buy it, if it wouldn’t cost 2000€, because nobody knows if it really works!

That is typical of Jason. Watch for a New Year treat - a limited number of additional licenses.

It’s just marketing tactics, I’m sure it will be up soon after. :slight_smile: