What Really Turned My Trading Around

[traderjosh]

Ok Rel. I think in simple terms. It looks to me like at the close of New York and Open of Sydney (17:00 New York time) if you go long you are almost assured at least a 20 pip profit. So my question is how should you trade this based upon these numbers alone? Stop Loss etc? I am thinking that you would open two positions and when your TP reaches 20 close it out and let the other position run pulling your stop to break even. I am just wondering how to set the initial stop?

[traderjosh]

and then I see once the price retraces back to sydney close and goes lower a short position looks pretty good. hmmmmmm...

[Relativity]

Ok Rel. I think in simple terms. It looks to me like at the close of New York and Open of Sydney (17:00 New York time) if you go long you are almost assured at least a 20 pip profit.

I think what you meant is that if you follow the direction of the new D1, not long.

So my question is how should you trade this based upon these numbers alone? Stop Loss etc?

Stop loss is already a deal done with at 20 pips. (posted it before)
- H1 avg ranges 20 pips
- Barro Swing Statistics tells us 20 pips for a breakout
- D1 Winner's wick is approx 20 pips

I am thinking that you would open two positions and when your TP reaches 20 close it out and let the other position run pulling your stop to break even. I am just wondering how to set the initial stop?

Yup, I actually practice doing that.

So if the goal is to catch the D1 body and avoid getting the D1 winner's wick at the wrong side = 20 pips SL. You are getting this right already.

[Relativity]

and then I see once the price retraces back to sydney close and goes lower a short position looks pretty good. hmmmmmm...

Thats when you ask yourself the critical questions
Are you in the winner's wick or loser's wick?
Which side is more likely to win?
Are you catching the top of the winner's wick OR it has already passed you and you are on the wrong side?

Thats where you bring in the other stuff in.

[traderjosh]

Rel, is this data pretty consistent with other pairs. Eur/jpy. Gbp/jpy etc. ?

[DeltaSkelta]

Thats when you ask yourself the critical questions
Are you in the winner's wick or loser's wick?
Which side is more likely to win?
Are you catching the top of the winner's wick OR it has already passed you and you are on the wrong side?

Thats where you bring in the other stuff in.

Hey rel, I was just making sure I was right on this because I thought I saw some conflicting words before through the thread about winner's wicks.

a winners wick would be the top wick on a green candle and the bottom wick on a red candle correct?

my reasoning is because that is where the winners are taking their profits. Right?

I don't know why, but sometimes I feel like I force myself to stumble over the little stuff

[traderjosh]

I think the 20 pip rule needs a little room for error. Sometimes reversing 25-35 pips before returning and continuing on. Any thoughts?

[Relativity]

Rel, is this data pretty consistent with other pairs. Eur/jpy. Gbp/jpy etc. ?

There are variations. One must research them himself.

[Relativity]

Hey rel, I was just making sure I was right on this because I thought I saw some conflicting words before through the thread about winner's wicks.

a winners wick would be the top wick on a green candle and the bottom wick on a red candle correct?

my reasoning is because that is where the winners are taking their profits. Right?

I don't know why, but sometimes I feel like I force myself to stumble over the little stuff

Red Candle
Winners wick = top
Losers wick = bottom

Think about as the open line as a 'battle line' between 'bulls' and 'bears'

Winners enter early enough (right near the topwick) or just on time (at the open) knowing they will eventually win.
Loser enter foolishly even they are losing (against the body direction) / the battle is ending soon, too late (bottom wick).

[Relativity]

I think the 20 pip rule needs a little room for error. Sometimes reversing 25-35 pips before returning and continuing on. Any thoughts?

Its due to certain timings of the day having high activity. Thats where I look at timeframes lower than H1 (e.g. M15, M5) to pick off the extreme.