…
hi there Relativity,
nice to see that you are sharing your thoughts after 4 years after being successful nw… tht is realy good and im happy for you… my question to you would be quite straight… what is your strategy lol? thanks 
(i dont knw if u’d like to answer that question…)
it must took you a long time to come to this strategy tht u have…it must be hard work… yeh please do expand on it…il be very much glad to hear it…and share it with you?
very cool
I wonder how your numbers hold up when you take smaller random sets of data? Is the result close or are there times when these numbers are very different.
say you have 3 years of data you tested if you only look at data from the month of June is the curve the same.
Hi Rel,
seems you’ve made a great job, but I must admit I’ve understood almost nothing about the way you trade… I’m too dumb to understand it…:22:
E.g. 1 H candle close retracing at least 20 pips from S/R Area (Pivot, Round numbers etc.): If candle was long we go short?
Is this the way?
Thanks!
Starting to understand… Thanks for quick reply…
The Daily candle must be closed or, as soon as we see the 20 pips retracement, we look at 1H candle (must be closed?) and enter in that direction immediately?
Thanks again!
Thanks Rel,
I’m looking back thru the charts and it seems easy enough to spot entries following your hints… The problem maybe is how to manage the trade…as always, but I think taking 1/3 or 1/2 @20 pips, set SL @BE and let the rest run until an opposite entry signal, could work pretty good… What do you think about?
Another couple of question…
- What pair do you suggest to follow, according to your studies?
- Have you specially created an indi to analize the datas and see what pairs & values are good for this technique?
Thanks once more…
Wow… Great job you’ve done…
So, what % is acceptable to trade a pair? < 5% ?
Actually I’m jobless, and it’s time to become profitable in forex… After a couple of years of study & testing, i feel your thread will be the turning point of this problem…
So, my old job will become my hobby…
I’m with Alpari Uk & fixed spreads. They seems to be smaller than yours (as I see in your post with calculations): EU 1.6, GU 2.5, AU UC 2.6, AU 2.8, EJ 3.2 etc.
Anyway, answering your question, I think that spread doesn’t affects the overall outcome, because the answer is: my analisis of direction is wrong…
[B]I have to thanks you forever[/B] :35:, because you gave me a better knoweledge about how the market moves :45:
I was just considering (before reading your thread) naked trading using price action (peaks & walley and so on), but there was always an obscure reason behind the up and down of the moves… whipshaws (in any timeframe…) are always there to confuse each kind of analisys.
You gave us, instead, a clearer view of the whole movement, and a simple rule to get in & eventually out! (Incredible: just few posts ago, I did understand nothing… )
There will be losses, of course (expecially in hard trending days, where 20 pips bounces are just little retracements of big trends), but nobody here is looking for the Holy Grail. We just need an edge to win more than we loose, and I’m sure you’ve found this edge!
Found them! Thanks.
Looking forward for the other things you’ll be so kind to share with us! :35:
Btw: today I didn’t trade, but the system would have made some profit on EU / GU also if range was very narrow !! (59 pis on EU !?!?) :57:
p.s. what is Peirce talking about…?
Thanks for the indi… I will study about it …
Today I made (based on 20 pip retrace) a good trade on EU (long), and had a bad trade on AU (short). I’m actually short again on AU…let’s see how it goes… :51:
Regarding Carry Trade, I think is for positions trading & big capitals… not for me now…
Yes, I understand Peirce googled it, but…gogled WHAT ??? You didn’t say what were you going to share…
The second trade on AU went bad too, but now I’m again at the start… I don’t understand once more… 
When you explained me the 20 pips bounce, I thought I hadn’t to take care of general trend, carry trade & so on…
Regarding the news: how many times bad news drive the price higher instead of lower and viceversa…?
Moreover, in the second trade there was a bounce from round number (1.0000), divergence, and broken lower trendline of an Head & Shoulder pattern in 5 min TF(Ross hook included…) & was at the top of descending 1H Channel… Technically speaking it was perfect for a good retracement at least…
Btw. The first trade too, bounced from round number (0.9950) & broke middle line of descending H1 channel, and trendline of 5 min TF (Ross hook included…)
You said we must enter in the head of people who drives the market… (and I still don’t know how to), but price doesn’t go straight to his destinations… How many times it comes back and take our SL or trailing stop and then go where we iniatially tought it was directed…?
An example? Todays EU is moving the same way of AU, and there was a signal to go short (20 pips retrace) after the bullish run of the morning… I didn’t take it (because I was already in AU trade), but closed my positive trade because of it… then…it rose up again against the middle of Daily & 4H descending channels (so, the general trend was down). I could had hold my position, in the hope of a further up move but ALL made me think it was reversing 
And I don’t think EU is involved in carry trade (negative swap for long positions too)…
It’s like a big puzzle, but I still don’t have all the pieces to reconstruct the image… :58:
I attach the images (sorry, here in babypips images are not so good as when I load the same in Forex Factory) Upper is EU (H1) lower is AU (5 Min)
I attach 2 chart of AU:
First one H1
Yellow lines = daily trend channel
Green lines = 4 H trend channel
Violet lines = 1 H trend channel
Red line= old 1H top channel (where I shorted_ red arrow)
Second one Weekly
Red Channel was down and… yes: price was (1.000) exactly 229 pips down from 2010 close & 1090 pips down from the top of the year…
I.e. how could I had tought the trend was UP? For me it was down in higher TF than 5 min…
From dec 8th, daily trend was clearly down… And the trend channel on Weekly from Jan 2011 is down (with Double Top & Head & Shoulder too), or, at least in a descending triangle for last months!.. So, I can’t see where carry traders were this year… They woke up this mornig…
The lines in my Au 5 min charts are just pivots & round numbers… No indicators, except bell & whistles & a TRO indi (Rat Zone), used just to better identify the 20 pips zone…
Resuming: I still don’t understand your way of trading. You say: “What turned my trading around”… Yeah…: WHAT?
It seems to me a very complex mix of foundamental analysis, technical analysis & “gut” decisions… So not so simple to teach & to learn…
You say: I don’t like EU now… but it made exactly the same of EJ: went long today…but EJ performed worst than EU (about 80 pips against > 130 pips on EU), so, your choice was wrong…?)
Please, don’t misunderstand me, but I think you should be clearer if you have something to teach us (and I’m sure you have…): What can, really make us profitable? Could you please give us complete rules? 10/20/30 pips a day could be enough, but on a steady base… It’s useless make complicate argumentations to be in the same situation of simple MA cross trading system…Today AU made 202 pips range against 144/153 of 10/20 days avg. So, who could have told me before? I.e: better to say entry was right, but market went another way (the same old story)… Moreover, levels, supports, resistences, trendlines, channels and other amenity can hold or can be broken…who can know it before…
Btw: AU, EU & EJ are falling down hardly just now… Good news (house starts) for the dollar? Yes, but it was 2 1/2 hours ago… And, what about Jpy?
Thanks again for your time & efforts!
I’m following with full attention… a student from the front row…
Hello
Interesting stuff. I am trying to follow all that you’re saying, but I’m very dumb. One thing I did think about though was how all MT4 moving average indicators are based on defined periods of time (You always have to specify the timeframe when you put an MA on a chart), whereas in the standard definition of an average time is not a factor. Its almost like instead of a true average, the indicator is returning an average of samples (e.g., the opening prices of every 15 minutes) .Why not just take a set number of ticks and constantly update it (the “moving” part in the MA)? I’m not sure the extra detail of a tick average would be any better though.
Just my two-pence worth.
Yes, I think it is time we do this. After all, they have been doing it to us for many, many years!
Ok, I will try it out, though at the moment I have a problem downloading it. One thing I have tried so far is looking at average range over time (i think). the statistics indeed tell an interesting story. here is the program i wrote (quickly) to do it - it should be run as an EA. Over 50% of ranges between 10 and 30 pips.
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Averages.mq4 |
//| Copyright © 2011, Harrison Gecko |
//| [email protected] |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
#property copyright "Copyright © 2011, Harrison Gecko"
#property link "[email protected]"
extern int avgPrd = 14,
maxRange = 150;
datetime lastTime;
double avg, nPoint;
int rng[], maxNo, pipFactor;
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| expert initialization function |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
int init()
{
maxNo = maxRange/10;
ArrayResize(rng, maxNo);
if (Digits % 2 == 0) pipFactor = Digits; else pipFactor = Digits-1;
if (pipFactor==2) nPoint=0.01; if (pipFactor==4) nPoint=0.0001;
return(0);
}
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| expert deinitialization function |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
int deinit()
{
//----
int acc;
for(int i=0; i<maxNo; i++) {
if (rng[i] != 0)
acc += rng[i];
}
for(i=0; i<maxNo; i++) {
if (rng[i] != 0)
Print("Range ",i * 10," to ",(i*10)+9," pips: ",rng[i]," (",DoubleToStr(rng[i]*100/acc,2),"%)");
}
//----
return(0);
}
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| expert start function |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
int start()
{
//----
if (lastTime != iTime(Symbol(), Period(), 0)) {
avg = 0;
for (int i=0; i<avgPrd; i++)
avg += High[i+1]-Low[i+1];
avg /= avgPrd;
int arr;
arr = avg/(nPoint*10);
rng[arr]++;
// Print(DoubleToStr(avg, 4));
lastTime = iTime(Symbol(), Period(), 0);
}
//----
return(0);
}
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
What to say about…?
I much appreciated your effort to answer me clearly…
Let’s say as a student, usually I’m a quick learner, but my big problem (specially here in Italy 
) has ever been finding the right teachers. Usually here, they don’t want students to learn…
In forex, until now, has been a long journey (almost 2 years) wandering thru Forums, Books, purchased systems, where most of the people try only to sell something that doesn’t work, or scammers, or self-styled gurus who have nothing to teach…
During this long journey I had to build my knoweledge base picking something here and there, but I’m sure the final pieces of the mosaic are still missing.
I understand trading is not only a system, and is also the right money management and the right psycological attitude, but to reach this one, we need a clear plan to know what to do and when.
I quote you:
"[I]Do you mind if I ask a personal question? Are you in a rush to earn money through trading?[/I]"
I’ve already answered in a previous post: I’m jobless… and I NEED to earn money in trading… obviously I don’t wanna get rich quick, but I have to start becoming steadly profitable to gain confidence, and knowing I’m on the right way to become a decent trader…
And I am grateful to all those who have, (and will teach) taught me something useful.
I’m here to learn, but to learn the right things. I’ll be a good student!
Regarding the channels in my charts are Sonic’s Shi Channels MTF… There will be surely better ways to draw trendline & channels (and I’m looking forward to know yours…), but I use also regression channel and self made trendlines , but you surely know if you put the same chart in front of ten good traders, they draws trendlines & channels in ten different ways…
Concluding: I just don’t wanna spend my time wandering again in the fog. I’m looking for a good teacher… Wanna be you? (Nobody forces somebody to share and teach his knoweledge) If so, I’ll be a good and grateful student…
Thanks again!
Wow…!
Just a question: Barron’s indi you posted draws thick purple & blue lines and thinner ones… In your last post I see only thin white lines… what must we use to draw trendlines?
How must we set the parameters of the indi e.g. for 5 min TF are the same of 1H TF?
Thanks!