Forex Price Action

Heads up: XAUUSD H4: Bearish pinbar at resistance after pullback with the (down)trend


Dudest, how many trades are you averaging a month?

Oh, and 1635 seems like a strong support area, so not for me.

Just curious

i’m still on page 41 of this thread but thought i’d put a chart up for eurgbp daily that looks like a potential trade. the resistance that the 2 bar formed on is a retest of a level last hit in august 2010, not sure if that is significant. waiting for price to rotate back to the upper red line to go short


conversly, i see a 2 bar forming at resistance on the gbpchf daily


Hi Ang101,

@Trades per month: the rational ones = ~ 12 per month

==

PS:

=> With regards to worthwhile-ness, here’s how I see it (feel free to correct me if I’m wrong)

-> (This may vary from broker to broker but) generally, the pip cost for 1 ounce of Gold (minimum trade size) is $0.01 per pip.

-> If you sold below the pinbar low (at say 1640.00) and it got to 1635.00, that’s 500pips movement

-> For a spread of, say, 10pips, that comes to 490pips => 490 x $0.01 = $4.9 [ for a minimum trade size margin of ~ $7 ] (micro a/c) => 70%

–> 1 micro lot (.01) of Gold = 0.01USD per pip => $4.9
–> 1 mini lot (.1) Gold = 0.1USD per pip => $49
–> 1 standard lot (1) Gold = 1USD per pip => $490

Seems good to me :slight_smile:

Cheers!

What i’ve found out so far.

  1. Importance: it is value-adding to evaluate trades made and pick out patterns of thinking/behaviour (good & bad) and use the info picked up to adjust trading style/behaviour for better trading performance

  2. Means:
    -> Manual means: e.g an excel sheet ( example )
    -> Automated means: e.g myfxbook.com, mt4i.com

Cheers

Just on the EURGBP short trade you are looking to take. This level is the same level I have marked and also the level I will be watching like a hawk to get short with all the momentum. Pull-backs with the trend to logical areas are my speciality. So yes I agree let the counter-trend pass and get with the trend.

Good luck,

Johnathon

Be careful with all trades tomorrow especially anything Gold or USD related, the Fed speaks at 2pm.

If anyone is wondering why I am pointing this out, take a look at a chart and any significant Fed meeting in the last 3 years and you’ll clearly see why. The last such meeting had Gold stop dead in its tracks in an uptrend, drop hard the rest of that day, and it hasn’t stopped falling since.

All they said was they are not going to “print” any more dollars, for now. The rest is, as they say, ‘history’.

I would like to comment on risk management and correlation based on my observation so far. Because of this, I restrict myself to risk only 1% at any one time. The interesting part is when u start to see a good trade setup, a few other good ones also start to appear some times. This is when the temptation comes in. I will try to choose one with a good trade setup and reward risk ratio. In the rare event that all are equally good, I will then split my 1% and trade on all of them. In short, I will still end up with 1% risk for all trades at any one time. Of course, this is provided I don’t end up with awkward situation where I buy USD in 1 pair and sell USD in another.

It is simpler just to trade one pair at a time and just forget about correlation altogether.

Hi Johnathon,
I have just started to follow u on Twitter and have learnt a few things from there. Thank you.

I agree with dudest it’s value adding. In fact, the moment u r filling up the journal, it starts to add value. Cos that is when u start to evaluate the trade setup in a rational and rule based manner.

To keep things simple, I maintain them in Excel for a start.

Hi guys,
I have started to mark such impt levels and set an alert in MT4 to inform me when it is reached. Not a bad practice right?

If you have facebook you can also follow us on there to which is a lot easier as you will not miss the daily posts etc

Yep that’s fine. Much better way to go about it is marking levels and letting price reach them. Some people do the opposite and find the price action signal and then try and match up the levels. Problem with this is the brain can do funny things and talk you into trades and make levels look better than what they are. If you have them premarked this problem will not exist.

Johnathon

Thank you for the heads up but this thread is for Price Action. I am not worried about who prints more money or who is speaking. Price will lead the way and what happens tomorrow will be reflected in what the price does. I don’t need to look at the economic calendar for that. Fundamentals have zero bearing on trade selection for me as I am a Price Action trader.

I am not trying to come across abrupt at all a, I am simply trying to keep the thread on price and not news.

Id Ben comes out tomorrow and declares the world is going to fall apart then our charts and price will show us that and will guide as by the correct selling of etc. If the Fed is bullish the opposite will happen etc. I don’t need to know what or when it is happening to know this as the price will tell me. It has in the past and it will in the future.

The last thing is yes sometime things happen that we can not predict. This is why we have stops. But if we were to not trade because of the news we would never be able to trade. If we look at the calendar we can see every day there is tons of news out.

Let price be your guide. Trade with stops and never be greedy.

Johnathon

Hi,

I’ve been following this thread with great interest and wanted to say thanks to all who have been contributing charts for people to learn. I have a question: How profitable is price action trading, can anyone provide some insight to winning trade percentages or monthly account percentage growth?

Cheers,
Adrian

Sure, will do so now :slight_smile:

Hey adrianlowsy

I think you should worry more about sticking to your trading system and less about % ect. Follow your system and % will come.

Cheers

In the the same vein, XAGUSD H4 gave a bearish signal (BEEB) [ also not yet activated ]


Pretty solid Pin has now dropped into relevant support area.

This Pin Bar was on the daily chart, rejecting recent resistance and also very big round number of 1.6000 which was acting as a psychological resistance area.

Very choppy market this pair so trading should be done between levels.

I was short this trade hence why I posted it and have take profit out of most of my position.

Safe trading all,

Johnathon


Hi Johnathon, Bryce,

How would you treat a BEEB such as this (on GBPUSD H4)?


PS: if price continues down, the daily will also form a BEEB

Would rather go long here than short. Market is choppy but on 4hr last bit of momentum has been up.

What scares me of is two levels. Both on the chart below. The first is support and then the very big round number of 1.600.

So not for me. If you take it short good luck. It def it large and obvious that’s for sure.

Me personally would like to get long from 1.600 area.

Johnathon