Forex Price Action

One more that I’m monitoring- sorry for pulling the trigger early on that last one, I’m having some trouble right now dealing with a minor “over-trading” spell I’m in… bleh.

AudCAD Daily:


3 points of confluence:

  • .95075 resistance held

  • Pin bar formed

  • Market trending downward

  • Place sell limit order @ 50% tail (around .94950) (OR) straight up sell once .94677 is broken

  • S/L @ .95221 (250 points)

  • 50% T/P @ .93974 (1000 points)

  • Future targeting .92029

Thanks again. I promise I can bring more to the table than simply demanding everyone’s eyes and ears…I don’t consider myself THAT selfish :slight_smile:

As promised- Here’s one trade I’m short in right now:

GBPCAD Daily:


I still believe there is time for traders to get short on this, and ride it down to at least 1.62547 (800 points from where it closed today).

I used to only trade trends for so long, but got busted so many times with fakeouts and just recently started trading PA. I have alot to learn because I lack discipline. This pin bar (to me) just looked too good to resist. Monthly charts shows downtrend. However, I’m starting to wonder if this may be a fakey pin bar…Even if it is, my stop is so tight (thanks to Nial Fuller and Jonathan Fox) that the loss would be nothing on my bank roll. Thanks everyone!

Hi, Roy!
IMHO, it’d be nicer if this PB was “sticking out”, as folks in this tread call it - you know, when the nose is far out from other candles. You have found this sticking out in your next message (on GBPCAD), but there it’s body is bigger than is considered good (not 1/2-1/3 of wick’s length - which is optimal, but close to 1/2 of the whole range length - that’s not optimal).
Hope I don’t annoy you with critics:p
Best of luck!
PS there’s a repository of knowledge on this method (including PB’s - as they interpreted here) in first 50 pages of tread - with a lot of graphs! It’s highly useful.

Hey Roy.

If you go to page 1103, Johnathon posted this exact same chart in post #11029 with the levels where he’s looking to trade from :slight_smile: Take a look.

Thanks for replies
a valid pinbar should have these conditions (Things that I write down) :
1- a big and long wick
2-3/1
3-the wick should stick out from previous candles
4- we should consider the power and size of the previous candles . If previous candles are much larger and bigger than the pinbar , for me it’s not valid . (I’m a little hesitated about the 2 candles before it )
5-it should close with in the previous candle .

Other factors :
we’ve a very good uptrend and making higher highs and higher lows .
The market is came back on a solid S/R level , this is also the last swing’s high .

I’m not sure my position had a problem , I think it’s normal and my position was right ( at least I think )
Can you tell me your opinion about this trade ?
Thanks

Hi Johnathon,

First of all, thanks again for your great trading methodology. I have started following you 5 weeks ago and I have had a positive P&L for the last three weeks. I didn’t really get the support I expected from all your long time students but I still managed to pick it up on my own which shows how clear you made it.

Now, there is still one big question that I won’t be able to answer myself. I would really appreciate if you could give me your point. I am sure this could be helpful even to your long time followers.

It is often said that we don’t care about news expect for the NFP. However, it is hard to ignore that the market is trying to position based on QE tapering soon or not and this makes a lot of US based news have the kind of effect only the NFP normally has.

Can we really ignore the whole thing or do we have to take this into consideration at least until there is a clear direction ?

To give you an example, on the USDCHF 4H chart, a decent pinbar formed at a relevant level so I placed an order which was triggered. Price didn’t really go anywhere until the new home sales numbers came out which fortunately gave my trade a nice boost.


Fair enough, but even though my trade had good reason to be entered (correct me if I’m wrong though) I still had the feeling that it was a 50/50 in terms of probability as the news could as well have been good and we would probably have seen the same move against my trade which would have canceled it. All this because of the fact that there is more reaction these days to any US news as the market is trying to get clues on how to position.

USD CAD Daily
Nice long pin-bar @ resistance…(sorry not able to upload chart)
Not a well defined trend…
Previous candles almost same in size.
Not much traffic till the FTA

Any suggestions on this?

I’d like to hear your opinions about GBPJPY daily setup?


Looks pretty good to me but I personally prefer the GBP.CAD D1

GBPCAD - Isn’t it against the trend?

GBPCAD - Isn’t it against the trend?

Hi Bryce
Whats the PA signal for the gbpcad countertrend trade? Its neither a proper pinbar nor a 2bar reversal. Unless you would take it as a fakey setup used by NF (i never had much success with fakey setups prob bcos i din understand it much). Great level and i would not have thought twice about taking this CT trade if it were a proper pin bar. Please dont get me wrong since i KNOW (feel strongly) this one is headed for that support below, i am just unable to justify the PA signal. I know you would not take it without sound reasoning which is why i would love to pick your brains on this one…

Raj

Hey there Sergei- thanks for the reply. Agreed on all fronts- the candle isn’t optimal, isn’t breaking out of a major swing point, and there is a bit of chop off to the left. I’m going to watch this one, but after sleeping on it will probably pass.

Thanks again eignerdauL- was thinking about this trade more, and I’m going to make that buy stop order as I laid out. Going to put a nice tight stop in case it moves down. But, to me, I see very clear S/R levels and the 8/23 EST close as a significant swing point.

Hey Raj,

I also see this as a nice reversal setup. Not sure if you peeked at the 1H & 4H charts, but to me they tell a pretty solid story. Both intraday charts point to the significant level of 1.62547. If that level is supported, (as Jonathan mentioned a few pages ago) we could go long. I’ve taken a short already at 1.63627 so I’m locked in. Looking for 50% profit @ 1.62547 (about 800 points). From there, stop gets moved to BE, then next profit target is 1.59365. If that first 50% profit level isn’t broken, and holds, I’m going long.

Hi- I’m not seeing the same PA pinbar setup you are (Though, I could be misinterpreting your strategy). Here’s what I see:


This really doesn’t look like a strong PA Signal to me. I mean, it seems logical that this is a resistance point and this candle tells that story, but to take a short position at this point looks like a guess to me. I just don’t think this is the A+ pinbar setup that everyone loves to reference.

Just my $0.02- respectfully of course. :slight_smile: I’m liking GBP/CAD 1D the more I look @ it and the intraday charts.

My last candle is looking more like aleksihe’s. However I agree with the resistance level in bigcheefer’s chart. The latest candle looks like a retrace back to this old level which has now turned into support. Let’s see where the candle opens on Monday.

You don’t have the right charts then. On a proper NY Closing chart it is a large pinbar. What it looks like on any other time variation is moot.

A+ signal? I am scratching my head trying to work out where exactly the signal is. I am not trying to be overly blunt, but you have openly admitted yourself that your are over trading and then continued doing it so I don’t have much sympathy. You either are just a sucker for punishment or you really lack control? This does not come close to being a Pin Bar. it does not fit most of the requirements. As the other poster said those were some solid levels.

This thread has got a lot of people on the right track and you can be one of them, but you have to put in the work to. If you have not read the very first post and what it recommends you should have read then please do.

Johnathon

IMPORTANT: Please read the first page of this thread for the rules and exactly what is needed. We don’t take entries at retrace or on close. Your charts look to have 6 candles and not the right timings.

Safe trading,

Johnathon