This was a perfect setup for a 10 plus pip trade. The dashed line is a 50 sma for trend. Read and black lines are pivots. When you have time could you review how to use fib retracements as SR to keep me out of bad trades. I'm only having a 50% win rate and need help. Should I just stay with the the eurusd and the gbp/usd?
This strategy will work on any pair, but the more movement a pair has like EUR/USD the more profit we can get and the less chance of a fakeout.
Great work guys. Nothing wrong with adding a SMA or anything thats helps you filter bad trades. My only worry is that were getting away from the simplicity however, we need to increase the accuracy so that may be the way to go.
Blizard, maybe in a few weeks we could review your strategy, add in anything that works, chuck out what does not work so we can all keep this simple, without us adding lots of indicators which may not provide any real benefit?
I just think there have been a number of suggestions here which are good additions, but i do agree its best to keep it simple.
Blizard one question, i am having a little issue with exiting trades, i either cut them short of profit or miss it and end up with a loss.
What do you recommend, i like the idea of just going for 5 pips, but what happens if we dont get our TP, do we accept it as a loss?
- Notice critical levels on your chart, its crucial for your analysis
- Use trail stop to let your profit run (lets say move to BE when price reach +5 pips, and trail it with 5 pips) and use it according to market sentiment, otherwise close at 5pip ofc
- SL must represent the MAXIMUM that you feel to "bet" to see if you are right or wrong, it doesn't mean you cant close a position before the SL is triggered, when you see market going agaisnt you
-> use a contigency plan
I wont get deeper in this stuff as its a bit out of topic, but if any further view on this is needed, just tell me
Entry is the horizontal line, TP is the maroon line (mid figure) that has been just reached. +20pips trailing it.
NOTE: trailing it, i should be still in, but i closed it as a crucial level, a mid figure, has been reached, and 20pips with 2% risk over 10 pips SL - is a good amount of profit, that would theoretically allow me to sit on my hands till end of the week according to my weekly objectives
today i backtested this system on M1 with 2 different parameters on 1 single pair over 1 full day:
- minibar 3: 13 win vs 7 lose (65%)
- minibar 4: 10 win vs 5 lose (66%)
Percentage of win is basically the same, but let's do some considerations:
- this system has a big disadvantage to my eyes: you have a very bad RR ratio, so doing lot of trades can lead to have a negative balance.
- I said no. of trades, not of pips. Keeping TP 5pips would kill the account for RR reasons, also cos most of the trades noted could have run for more pips. so trail stop or splitting the profit at some point would be useful (+ use a contigency plan in case it trades against you, SL must really be a reminder imho, especially with this system)
let's also consider is a poor backtesting, but it's intended only to give an idea, and the system was applied "blind" - without any other filter for the signals.
I'm currently working on it, apart from fibo levels shown by the creator, I added mid/big figure and daily pivots to the chart and i'm finding a way to apply my beloved slow stoch to the system, mixed with yarara indicator, (seems to be a good mix) and plotting TMA to give me an idea where we are in terms of price.
Also multi TF analysis seems to be crucial, using M1 and M5 as we are talking of a scalp system =)
I'll share properly when i've a decent plan in mind!
Gotta say this thread is awesome. Blizard seems a cool calm guy with out the ego issues normally found on these threads and the results are worth reading.
In response to CryAgony's comment about RiskReward. I have seen systems that can work profitably over time with just a 50% win rate. The key to this apparent misnomer is the RR ratio e.g. a TP 30 and a SL 20 with a 50% win rate you will make money - work it out. (ok answer example: 4 trades - 2 wins & 2 losses = Profit 60 Losses 40 = total profit of 20)
However this systems SL is above/below the last dot. This can often exceed the TP. I have no magic answer to this issue but 66% winners is really very good and hope that if a perfected TP SL system can be worked out then it will benefit us all.