Macfibo system

[steo]

yes i agree that this is a bad patch all systems most likely will got thru and thats why MM is so impt.

sufian is ur MM based on the 38.2% for every trade u take? that is a 1:1 risk reward ratio?

MACFIBO SYSTEM UPDATE 29/3/2012

I did not enter the 2nd EU signal (which was a sell). Unlike Bernanke's comment, housing data is something I did not understand and I wasn't sure how it would effect the price action. However, I will record that activation anyway to 2012 Macfibo Statistics. There was a potential 40+ pips to be harvested, using 5ema 8sma recross, you'd lose 20 pips.




Before you go, take a loot the scary looking chart....



A trader I've known for 3 years asked me last night :"EU hasn't hit 161.8 Four Trades In The Row, should I panic? Is this a sign Macfibo doesn't work anymore"

After one bad week? There is a word in soccer towards goal-scoring strikers that I like to use "You don't become a bad player overnight (not able to score goals in 3-5 matches in a row)".

Like other system, particularly MA crossovers, will go through a 'losing streak' due to Ranging markets. Am I bothered by this... 4 times in a row not hitting 161.8? As far as I am concern, this year, there has been 67% winners based on BASIC ENTRIES without taking account on news candles and S/R lines and re-entries. I can tell you now, though you dont have to believe me, that year in year out since 2006 data until end of 2011, every year the win rate averaged 68.8%.. based on basic entries. Worst losing streak this year is 3 losses in a row. From these 4 trades, only 2 became losers (first two raking 40 pips and 5 pips respectively).

Statistically, Macfibo still doing 'fine' this year. You can't explain everything in technical terms why EU unable to hit 161.8 from the last four valid signals (I didn't find the last signal as valid but that is my own discretion, why i strongly suggest you all disregard completely, keep it simple) but you can somehow explain in terms of the fundamentals. It has been a rollercoaster. First it was German IFO, then it was Bernankes dovish comments (weakens the Dollar), then the Consumer Confidence and then the housing data (which contradicts my own sentiment that the dollar has weakened based on bernanke's comment)

I am not saying this to 'defend' my baby (Macfibo).. not at all. All I am saying ALL SYSTEM go through bad spells.. some up to 10-15 trades in a row. I remember following Rob Booker via twitter, when he was in a very bad run around April-May 2011 trading EU using his Wallaby system.. and he is a very very very good technical trader. Macfibo never go through a 10-losses-in-a-row bad spell. The worst that I've recorded was 4 times in a row.. raking 110 pips (EU).. i believe it was in 2010.. So what we are going through now is 'not a bad spell'.

Another reason I am stating this is because one of my mistake when I first started trading, I CHANGE SYSTEMS THAT SUITS ME AFTER A BLIP.. I don't want the newbies here (both silent observer and contributing members) to do that mistake. If you strongly believe Macfibo is for you (and trade the EU), then do not panic. All systems go through bad spells.

Thanks.

[fxfrench]

I've taken a EUR/USD Long. Feeling good about it.

[steo]

hi sufian

question for u abt today's chart. since it didnt break last nite US session high we avoid taking this trade?

[Confirmado]

I've taken a EUR/USD Long. Feeling good about it.

<img src="http://forums.babypips.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23665"/>

Same here, woke up only now though, but still got on the trade since the price didn't move much away from the close of the activation candle

[sufiansaid]

I've taken a EUR/USD Long. Feeling good about it.

Hi Fxfrench, thank you very much for trying/testing/interest in the system. How long have you been following the thread?

[sufiansaid]

yes i agree that this is a bad patch all systems most likely will got thru and thats why MM is so impt.

sufian is ur MM based on the 38.2% for every trade u take? that is a 1:1 risk reward ratio?

I am forward testing with live account of this 38.2% SL. Yes it gives more or less 1:1 risk reward ratio. I use it mostly if there is news coming on.. big news or news I am not sure the impact.

[sufiansaid]

hi sufian

question for u abt today's chart. since it didnt break last nite US session high we avoid taking this trade?

It does help if it breaks the US session high but as I said in earlier posts, it is not necessary. Yesterdays signal is a good proof for that. . Keep it simple for now my friend. .

[Billionz]

From now own I am only trading the Eur/Usd and Im setting a hard stop at the 38.2 level but watching the 5/8 crossover for an earlier or quicker way to exit my trade. Plus I will wait until the candle closes before I enter or exit a trade. I feel these few things will improve my trading with the macfibo system.

[sufiansaid]

MACFIBO TRADE STATISTICS FOR XAUUSD 2012 : Updated 29/3/2012

This is important. I ran a quick test for this pair based on the following trading parameters/rule :

Entry : 5ema cross 20sma
TP : 161.8
Other TP Conditions : If 127.2 is equal (plus minus 5-10 pips) to previous day's High/Low, then TP at 127.2
Exit : Stop Loss at 38.2 but IF 5ema/8sma recross happens, then EXIT right away


The results so far, looks promising. I am surprised to be honest with Macfibo's capability with Gold. Now it's time to test it from 2008 data up to Dec 31 2011.. *cracking my knuckles*

Anyway.. heres the result (PDF will be attached soon)

Average Win : 61.6
Average Loss : 51.7
Net Pips : 1259
Win Percentage : 68.7%

Best Run (in pips) : 430
Worst Run (in pips) : 140
Longest Winning Run : 7 wins in a row (430)
Longest Losing Run : 2 losses in a row

[sufiansaid]

From now own I am only trading the Eur/Usd and Im setting a hard stop at the 38.2 level but watching the 5/8 crossover for an earlier or quicker way to exit my trade. Plus I will wait until the candle closes before I enter or exit a trade. I feel these few things will improve my trading with the macfibo system.

Fantastic. Yes Macfibo system relies on candle close for confirmation. I am very happy you are still interested using the system. I believe it will improve macfibo as well. Setting a hard stop incase those ugly spike happens while monitoring 5x8 as a momentum guide. Well done!!

p/s : With other members as a witness, I will make sure you stick to that trading rule.