Macfibo system

Always wait for the candle close.

The crossover occured when the candle was still forming so I was thinking we wait for another candle to finish to confirm the trade.

Hi… maybe I misunderstood your first question. Pardon me. :slight_smile:

There are times when the MA are ‘crossing’ even before the candle closed. Even in that situation, [B]we don’t pull the trigger yet. [/B]We pull the trigger when it is ‘crossed’, in other words, we wait until the candle that led to the ‘crossing’ to be CLOSED to confirm the ‘crossing’ hence the word ‘crossed’.

Go to forexfactory and search for ‘Speed Trap’… if the thread still exist.

Hi Muneeb.

If it confuses you (SR Lines),[B] and this applies to everybody who finds S/R Lines Analysis more damaging to their trading progress[/B], to leave this analysis OUT of your analysis tool [B]for now[/B]. Or… just use previous day’s high low (without the rule of respecting the SR atleast twice) as their S-SR line. Probably it’s my fault not to write a clearer guide on S-SR Line (which I might have to re-write it again :frowning: ).

Secondly, I’ve said it somewhere here in the thread that I am not rigid with S-SR Lines with Main Signal. I am VERY rigid and strict with S-SR Line application when it comes to Secondary Signal. Again, I should’ve made this clear in the guide (another reason for a re-write… pfft… hehehe). I still maintain S-SR Line Analysis avoid us effectively from entering a fake Macfibo but I can understand it can cause confusion most traders… so Muneeb and others who think S-SR Line is confusing, just leave it out… for now.

That’s a good idea Muneeb and Cryagony’s take on oscillators is accurate as well. I never dismiss one’s idea but what I usually ask them (when they have an idea that might work) is the following :

a) Backtest it via quickly browse through on 10 random days/ 10 random trad signals on the specific trading idea/rule etc on the specific pair you want to test (Test Phase 1)

b) Confirm it that your idea works really well in those 10 random trading signals - IF doesn’t work, back to drawing board and then repeat step a)

c) One you can confirm in b) that it works, then do this (Test Phase 2) : Backtest it and log it thoroughly (read guide ver 1.1) for over 200 trades and see it the stats are good (only you can decide what is your gauge as Trading System Success) - If not good, modify and repeat step a)

d) If the stats in Test Phase 2 in step c) are all good, further test it (Test Phase 3) minimum 500 trades and see the stats if it’s good.

e) If Test Phase 3 in step d) has good stats, then you paper trade (Test Phase 4) it for 20-40 trades before trade it Live. - If not good, modify and repeat step a)

f) If Test Phase 4 is good in step e), trade it live.

Ridiculous list?? I know but unfortunately that is roughly how you should test a Trading System before use it Live. Forex Trading is real business, we gotta treat it seriously. :slight_smile: (Trust me… Rob Booker’s Backtest phase far more worse and longer! :D). Trust me on this : [B]BACKTEST A SYSTEM THOROUGHLY DOES WONDERS TO YOUR TRADING PSYCHOLOGY![/B]

Assuming the time of your post, it’s during after London Close. Always good to avoid signals in those times buddy.

Ahh thankyou, ive got it now. On some of your charts it looked like another candle was left to form following the crossover candle but I understand that this isn’t what happened in reality. Great system btw and lots of thorough detail from you.

No problem buddy. Happy to help. Keep reading, testing and posting. :smiley:

MACFIBO SYSTEM UPDATE 12/4/2012

There were two trading signals and only one was valid (interms of rules stated in ver 1.1). There was a Buy signal, in which i took without hesitation. 1.618 was more or less equal to Significant Resistance (not shown in the chart for clarity and not to confuse others). A nice 22 pips profit. If you notice I mark the previous day’s high as recent. Let’s start there for now (Muneeb, are you reading? hehe). I realised Significant S/R Line Analysis is tricky and ‘subjective’ to others so just leave it alone for now.

The second main signal came really late in yesterday’s trading session (after London Close). I understand if some still want to trade this signal but I won’t and will not log any signal came from this session (Post-London close session).

MACFIBO PERFORMANCE Q1 REVIEW

So far Macfibo this year doing good for EURUSD and XAUUSD. EURUSD harvested 864 pips (more or less 290+ pips per month average) and XAUUSD harvested 1271 pips (more or less 400+ pips per month average). Mind you, all of this based on basic entries (no ver 1.1 application here) and trading in Asian to London Session only.

Macfibo in EURUSD, in the last 10 trades have harvested net profit of more than 40 pips whilst XAUUSD in the last 10 trades have harvested net profit of more than 150 pips. All good in my view.

EURUSD MACFIBO STATISTICS 2012 Updated 12/4/2012

Avg Win : 33.3 pips
Avg Loss : 23.2 pips
Net Pip : 864 pips
Win Percentage : 62.8%

LAST 5 TRADE FORM : WWWLW (Total Pips : +50 pips)
LAST 10 TRADE FORM : WWLLLWWWLW (Total Pips : +47 pips)

GOLD MACFIBO STATISTICS 2012 Updated 12/4/2012

Avg Win : 62.1
Avg Loss : 50.1
Net Pip : 1271
Win Percentage : 66.0%

LAST 5 TRADE FORM : LWLLW (Total Pips : +12 pips)
LAST 10 TRADE FORM : LWWWWLWLLW (Total Pips : +190 pips)

**Pdf file attached in first page

[B]MACFIBO EUROPEAN AND EUROPEAN-US SESSION PERFORMANCE[/B]

One good friend of mine, another Macfibo trader have shared with me one interesting stat. He has tested EURUSD Macfibo and Re-entry Signal (using only previous day High Low as his Significant SR Line) on London and London-US overlap session only. He tested it so far from January 2009 until Late July 2009. The stats he have obtained are as follows :

Trade Signals : 80 trades
Avg Win : 35.1 pips
Avg Loss : 10.3 pips
Net Pip : 1990 pips (Avg of 284 pips per month)
Win Percentage : 75% <-- daaamnn!!

Worst Run (in total pips) : 130 pips * has to lose minimum twice in a row
Best Run (in total pips : 418 pips * has to win minimum twice in a row
Avg Worst Run : 45.7
Avg Best Run : 156.3

Worst Run (consecutive Win Loss) : 2
Best Run (consecutive Win Loss) : 9

He also note that European-US overlapped session get the following stats :

Avg Win : 38.9 pips
Avg Loss : 9.8 pips
Net Pips : 982 pips
Win Percentage : [B]81%[/B]

I also profited on the first trade, but not as much, because my fib was set differently and the 1.618 line was lower on mine. Why did you set Point B of the fibonacci to that candle and not the low 9 candles ahead of it (which is what I did)?

I figured price had gone up and back down since that last low, so this would be my Point B

Thanks Sufiansaid for the 1.1 I really appreciate you helping us
And Sufiansaid how do you tackle the weekend, If a trade is still going and hasn’t hit the TP, but still hasn’t hit a 5x8 cross, do you just exit the trade before the market closes even if at a loss?

After I look at the chart 5 more times, I believe your Point B is more accurate than my Point B. I entered the trade via my iPad hence the clarity of the chart is beyond my control. I got lucky and [B]Yes, your Point B is the correct one. So guys, please disregard my Point B for the previous Buy trade. Thanks.[/B] Sorry for the mistakes… this just proves, even after trading Macfibo 1000 times… you still can make mistake. slaps forehead

This is a very very good question.

  1. First of all, I set a strict rule not to enter any signal during late hours of Friday’s London session (2-3 hours before close) so that normally avoids me from holding a position over the weekend. This ofcourse applies on H1 Macfibo trades.

  2. For longer term Macfibo trade like H4 (signal came on Friday ofcourse), then I will just hold the trade over the weekend because Macfibo trades on H4 sometimes takes between 8 to 36 hours to complete (to TP or Exit).

  3. If you enter a H1 Macfibo trade during say Asian session or Early London session in Friday and no exit signal even 1 hour before weekend close, then I’d suggest to manage your trade to minimize your risk as little as you can. Honestly speaking, ever since I have this rule stated in point 1), I never hold a trade over the weekend but in my early days trading Macfibo, yes… this what I’d do. I won’t close my trade but limit/minimize my exposure… say if price hangs around 127.2 before weekend close, than I would move my SL to breakeven… if you still in a loss, then I’d tightened my SL say 5 pips near the current price.

[B]EDIT : [/B]

Since I am on this issue (exiting trade without valid signal), here’s some situations when YOU SHOULD exit the trade IMMEDIATELY (regardless you are in a loss or win…) without the proper exit signal :

  1. When you enter a trade and few minutes after that you are still asking for people like “Is that ok?” “Is my trade correct?”
  2. After you enter the trade, you realise your PT A and PT B were wrong and price actually have hit 161.8 when you entered
  3. You realise accidentally set the position size bigger than you should.
  4. You realised you entered the trade NOT according to the rule
  5. You enter a trade but suddenly you remember you will be busy in the next few hours (unless you have iPhone/iPad on the go)
  6. You realised you haven’t slept for 2 days. Close the trade! Go to Sleep!

… thanks.

I thought you said, not to enter a trade when the signal is somewhat near to the SR Line. I m now confused :confused:

oh… 10s a lots…

Hi Sufian,

Quick question… I was thinking it would be good to set up a skype account where we can discuss real time discussions (but mostly to give entry and exit signals for the specific system)

Please let me know if this is something you would consider doing. I will be the first to join the group:

Skypename: mariexfred

I totally agree to this idea

We can meet up in babypips chat as well :wink: