JÄWÄ's 'Experimental' Price Indecision System

[pipcompounder]

It seems to me, to make this system really work, one must really trade every single signal, like you said, so that the probability works...for instance, if somebody traded only one pair and only did two trades a week, using only two signals on different days, the odds may not be very good for them...this really wouldn't even be using this system!
I am in the "I don't have much time because of work, etc..." boat with these other guys, so, while it only takes four glances every four hours, I may only have two of those opportunities a day, and, yes there might be inside candles on three pairs, like the other night, but I want to use the fullest potential of is system, so that it works the best, and in my opinion, an EA is the way to go...also, an EA on a VPS can help people overcome the emotions side of trading, which is our biggest obstacle (been there, done that, everything they say about live money vs. demo is true). An EA will also catch any opportunity that we may have missed even if we were looking at charts, because of definable rules that it won't forget, and live money makes the brain regress and forget rules, opportunities, and just plain common sense!

Thank you sithjawa, or whatever your real name is, for teaching everybody your system and explaining it...not very many thread starters do that, certainly not as well and patiently as you have!

Also, quick question...if somebody has 1:300 leverage, doesn't it work ok to risk 3% and have several trades going, whether they be multiple pairs, or to compound multiple signals, compared to 1:50 leverage?

[SithJawa]

@pipcompounder: Let me start off by saying I have been warned by many people including the programmer not to put the EA on this forum, so i wont be putting it up :3 however I will be sending it to those who have participated in this thread including you The only reason i commisioned an EA is so those of you who cant trade the 4 hour charts can profit from this system as well, but apparantly putting it on a forum risks quite a bit the integrity of the psychology of the system, more so then i thought originally :3 I have been trying to work on a new daily system but i have many different things on my plate and i don't have the time to spend 100+ hours analyzing data and backtesting theories :\ daily candles are much more complex then 4 hour candles..

And as far as your query to whether it is still viable to only trades a couple candles a day, i can tell you that while it will probability speaking be around 1/4 as profitable percentage wise, HOWEVER, it will still be profitable, the signals are accurate enough to give you high probability and low risk trades, the greatest features of the system wont be utilized but the concept behind each entry is sound

Lets say you have 10 trades in a week on 1 chart, but because you can only trade 2 candles a day you only get to trade 3.33 signals a week, and since the W/L of this system is close to 80% (without including the opposing signals and all the other features of this system) that means you can expect to win 2ish trades a week, and lose 1ish, and because of the flat take profits and half take profits with percentage of which is most likely you can expect to win 35 pips a week :P nevermind maybe you're right.. :P

BUT AGAIN!! It helps no one to be a lazy trader and just trade off of EA's :3 that isn't what i want to accomplish at all, I want to help people get their own trading careers started if at all possible, so while i will send the EA out when its done if it is profitable I am at the same time hoping you guys can learn a lot from this thread and find a trading plan and stick to it, to be honest since there are so many daily plans out there all someone needs to do is find one they like and trade it, regardless of its level of profitability it will still make them money, and even 5% a week becomes enough to live on after a year, I would suggest all of you guys who cant trade the 4 hour charts either find a good daily system and master it, or even develop your own just start trading, thats the only way to eventually overcome the emotional aspect of trading, and once you do that the rest is easy

p.s. my name is Daniel :P

[smacko]

cheers for the your last few posts jawa, they are highly informative!

so its saturday afternoon and i'm tossing up whether I should go live or keep demoing next week.. Right now I feel I have a pretty good understanding of the system (thanks to all my silly questions getting answered), however when I have a few lives trades going and more signals come in and immediate action is required, thats when i may forget the rules..

going to read over everything, then decide when i go to bed.

@jawa: once the market starts if fridays close produces a signal do you trade it? or do you want for the first candle of the new week to close?

[philosophunculist]

It seems to me, to make this system really work, one must really trade every single signal, like you said, so that the probability works...for instance, if somebody traded only one pair and only did two trades a week, using only two signals on different days, the odds may not be very good for them...this really wouldn't even be using this system!

Trading it less often doesn't effect the probability at all. Like SJ said, if you trade fewer signals you will make less profit, but you will still make profit. If you randomly trade 100 signals in a year, the odds shouldn't be any different than if you trade 100 signals in a week. I frequently miss candles and will miss weeks or months at a time in the future because of my job, but it doesn't really matter, because in my experience this system is so effective that even if I am trading it over a much shorter time frame, the results are so good that I would still be doing better than if I were trading other systems full time.

For example, before I found this thread, my goal was 50 pips a week. Last week I missed 4 good trades and still made over 600 pips.

@smacko
I know what you mean about the stress of live trading, but the beauty of this system is how mechanical it is (and its simplicity). Like SJ has said before, just tell yourself the reason you are entering each trade, or use the checklist. If you're concerned about how you would do live trading, then just start out with a small amount.

[SithJawa]

@smacko: obviously it's up to you and you know you and your situation better, but because live trading = real money there is always something about it that makes even I make stupid decisions :P I would suggest demo trading it until you have a large enough amount of time trading it profitably to say you know for a fact you can do the same live, whether it's a week of demo trading, or more or less, as long as you have mastered the system to the point you can trade it like a machine that hits every rule for entry and exit flawlessly as well as have confidence that it will work in the end (to keep you from dying on the inside on every loss), you'll do fine live trading but if you do live trade I would suggest the lowest amount possible just for the first week, that way you get the emotional battle of live money to prove to yourself you can do it and still get to make some profit, but remember it has to be an amount you can close half of for the half take profits, for my broker that's 20 cent lots, the key to trading is minimizing loss, not maximizing profit, so be on the safe side whatever you do

And funny enough If you look over the past few months nearly every trade that would've been made or held over the weeks end would've opened in profit on Monday, so really it's up to you I myself like a stress free weekend and even though probability would be on my side I don't like my money floating around :3 and I also don't think brokers guarantee stop losses over the weekend, not sure though.. I think from now on I am trading 12AM Monday to 12PM Friday

@philosophunculist: literally took the words right out of my mouth!! Well said

EDIT: remember the checklist! I start from the top and make my way down it every trade that way I know for sure why I'm entering

[SithJawa]

@everyone: p.s. this week I am live trading with ATR stops and take profits, the 40 sl 70 tp was tailored to the past months movements and either I'll have to change the numbers or find a dynamic way of doing stops and take profits if you look back a couple months ago you'll see regular price moves were nearly double what they are now, the market has been in kind of a lull but I think it has broken out of it, the average moved the past 3 weeks have been enormous

Also on a side note I've noticed the past three Mondays have had nearly all bad trades, still looking in to that, I don't mean to change anything but I seriously can't help trading something I think could be better :\ I've literally spent the past 8 hours at my computer analyzing data aha, woot vacation

EDIT: I'm not saying you guys should trade that way too or adjust your settings :l just letting you know what I'm working on

[renda1234]

@everyone: p.s. this week I am live trading with ATR stops and take profits, the 40 sl 70 tp was tailored to the past months movements and either I'll have to change the numbers or find a dynamic way of doing stops and take profits if you look back a couple months ago you'll see regular price moves were nearly double what they are now, the market has been in kind of a lull but I think it has broken out of it, the average moved the past 3 weeks have been enormous

Also on a side note I've noticed the past three Mondays have had nearly all bad trades, still looking in to that, I don't mean to change anything but I seriously can't help trading something I think could be better :\ I've literally spent the past 8 hours at my computer analyzing data aha, woot vacation

EDIT: I'm not saying you guys should trade that way too or adjust your settings :l just letting you know what I'm working on

I want to try ATR TP and SL too. How far should I go in days? I was thinking about ATR from one week or even dayly ATR will have somethink to do with next day move. THX

[SithJawa]

@renda1234: I am using ATR (40) for stop losses and half take profits and ATR (40) x 2 for take profits this will adjust the price levels to the fundamental market sentiment and volatility nicely while still being applicable to inner trends and short term moves we'l see how it goes

[smacko]

@jawa: can you please advise the name the alert site you use? i hunted through the thread but couldn't find it..

i've decided to go live with 1% risk (2k account, that is currently 5% up from another system i was trying), i'll stick to the sl, tp1, tp2 from the front page until you state other wise

[carrotop]

Hi Sithjawa, jus wanna say thanks for this system! and to jonah76 for the indicator! been testing it for the past wks but due to time contraints were not able to trade all signals, hence i'm getting mixed results on the trades. SithJawa, just wanna ask whats ur profitable:non-profitable trade ratios on an average wk?