Bullish or Bearish at the open...

[nashmon]

Can anyone tell me if is it possible for one to tell if an hourly candle will be bullish or bearish @ the open, if so, how would one go about doing this (namely, what indacators and/or timeframes should one use?) I would really appreciate your input.

[ForexNinja]

What do you mean by "bullish" or "bearish" at the "open"? Please elaborate.

[nashmon]

Namely, is there a way to determine the probability that an hourly candle will close either bullish or bearish; when the candle opens. For example, if I want to enter trades on the open of hour candles...is it possible for me to calculate the probability of a bearish close and the probability of a bullish close for that particular hour candle when it opens. Is there a way to calculate this by looking at previous hour candles, price activity within the preceding candle, or some other tech. indicator? I hope that this makes sense.. your help would be greatly appreciated!!

[Tess]

I would summize that any probability of closing higher-lower than the hourly open is no better than attempting to predict the vicinity of the closing ticks at end of day.

Two major influences spring to mind which would definitely affect the decision of an hourly candle:

1) Any economic news due for release within that hourly timeframe.

2) The approach & reaction of a significant level (a major round number) or previous zone of s&r.

You also have option activity to contend with + periods of low liquidity - namely the London closing slot around 11.00am EST.

Could just be too many variables for you there to cobble together a workable strat or system? which appears to be your reason for enquiring?