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10-09-2007, 05:10 AM
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Current EUR/JPY
Hi,
Anybody planning to open EUR/JPY short? Looks good currently according to the old system rules. I still trade with the old system and loving it much, at the moment 3 positions open with +200 pips since yesturday, I think I will go for EUR/JPY short, what do you think? Thanx, Regards, -t- 
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10-09-2007, 05:24 AM
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Good Morning people.
Whew!! I can't seem to wrap my mind around the new system. Maybe I'm a tad slow today. As for my 4 open positions based on our old rules, currently they're all in the green. Long USD/DKK @ +146 pips Long GBP/CHF @ +244 pips Short EUR/USD @ +59 pips Short EUR/GBP @ +52 pips I think the main thing with our old rules or in fact any rules, is that we SHOULD NOT OVERTRADE our accounts. Strict money management rules are the only thing that will save us from almost having heart failure when trades don't go our way as quickly as we'd like. I mean, it's a lot easier to be patient when your account is nowhere close to being margin called.
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10-09-2007, 05:30 AM
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10-09-2007, 05:49 AM
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Hey Dale I been out awhile which post has the new system rules in it?
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10-09-2007, 06:14 AM
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OK - well - you know - 'forever analysing'!!!
I've been going over some more charts (would you believe) AND I want to know what you all think about combining the 'old' system with the 'new' system??? Quite a 'mind f**k' hey??? Sorry - I know it would appear that I am 'chopping and changing' all of the time but all I'm trying to do is ENSURE that we take ONLY good trades and very little or NO bad ones AND I'm also trying to ENSURE that we don't have to sit around waiting for 'days on end' holding on to a position that, after a lengthy period of time, either breaks even or turns into a loss!!! Let's 'tackle' this from a different 'angle': What would be 'the ideal trade' based on our 'old' system? (I'm going to use a short trade as an example for the 'analysis' that follows). The ideal trade: Daily chart Parabolic SAR entry signal to go short MACD has crossed RSI above 70 Stochastics above 80 ADX above 25 What would be 'the ideal trade' based on our 'new' system? The ideal trade: Daily chart Parabolic SAR entry signal to go short Price closed yesterday below to 50 EMA Somewhere between these two systems lies 'The Holy Grail' I reckon. What are the shortcomings of our 'old' system? Well - for one thing - the fact that Parabolic SAR is giving you an entry signal is no GUARANTEE that a downtrend has started - all it's telling you is that the price has closed lower than the preceding one or two candlesticks or bars for the last one or two days. MACD - well - as we ALL know - it can just as easily turn back up and 'bite us in the tail' - still not much of a GUARANTEE. RSI - well - all it's telling you really is that AT SOME POINT IN THE FUTURE - the price WILL drop - not WHEN it will drop - and it could stay above 70 for a millenium if the price keeps going up. Stochastics - same as RSI really - all it's telling you again is that AT SOME POINT IN THE FUTURE the price WILL drop - again - not WHEN it will drop - and it could also stay above 80 for a millenium if the price keeps going up. ADX - probably the most reliable of them all if you want my opinion - and all it's telling you is whether or not the pair has directional movement or is range bound. So: Add the 50 EMA from our 'new' system to the 'old' system and what do you get? I reckon a pretty 'solid' system!!! What does it 'buy' us? Well - if the price on yesterdays Daily closed below the 50 EMA - or is CLOSING on a daily basis below the 50 EMA - then you can be (almost 100%) sure that a downtrend has in fact started AND seeing that EVERY SINGLE INDICATOR that we are using is a TREND FOLLOWING INDICATOR does it not stand to reason that this gives a certain amount of 'backbone' to the system and the other indicators??? For those instruments that have an ADX value of less than 20 - then you use the Break Out Point Calculator - and - once a BOP has been 'hit' - you follow the above 'combined' rules. I'll give you a very 'neat' example of what I'm talking about at the moment: AUD/CAD (which for ME is very risky given the fact that they are BOTH 'commdolls'): The price has been 'hovering' above the 50 EMA for the past six or seven days. Parabolic SAR was 'penetrated' sometime today already. The price has been 'hovering' above the 50 EMA for the past six or seven days. MACD 'looks like' it's ready to cross but it's by no means there yet. RSI is between 50 and 70 so it's in a tradeable range. Stochastics are above 80 (or close to 80). ADX has a value of 12 which means that the range is 'very' range bound. My entry: Using the Break Out Point Calculator (which I very kindly wrote for all of you and posted and which I see is not getting much attention) I have calculated my HBOP for today to be 0.8925 and my LBOP for today to be 0.8714. If either of these BOP's are hit (which I reckon will be the LBOP) then see what the implications tomorrow will be: The price will close below the 50 EMA tonight (tomorrow) A Parabolic SAR entry signal to go short will be given tonight (tomorrow) MACD will have crossed down tonight (tomorrow) RSI will start turning down to eventually cross the 50 mark or line Stochastics will cross the 80 mark or line and start moving down ADX will start to increase in value indicating that the pair is no longer range bound but trending (down) How can you go wrong??? As a 'sign of good faith' I have placed orders based on the above for 1 300 000 units (so let's hope I'm right) (and YES 'Just Joan' - your ARE right about OVERTRADING - I just CHOSE not to take you advice for this one)!!! droesparky: The 'new' rules cannot be more than 50 or 60 pages back (only kidding). They were posted on Sunday so just go back a day or two. Regards, Dale. Last edited by dpaterso; 10-09-2007 at 06:22 AM.
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10-09-2007, 06:36 AM
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hi dale!
i can't see daily psar penetrated today on aud/cad... is my chart too poor?
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10-09-2007, 06:45 AM
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Don't make your problems mine!!!
Only kidding. I wouldn't worry about it - remember - 'the jury is still out' on just how 'valid' my Delta 'SAR' is. Yours could very well be different but it does not mean it's wrong. The more I think about it - don't sell my Breakout Point Calculator short (excuse the bad pun). On range bound pairs it keeps you out of a trade UNTIL there IS in fact a 'valid' trade based on our rules. Just another thought while I'm going through my daily worksheet. Regards, Dale.
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10-09-2007, 08:28 AM
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Quote:
Akram
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