Parabolic SAR - that's all!

[robstyle1980]

Thanks Akram, maybe someday I will.

I've always wanted to travel to Egypt. If I ever get to, I'll owe it all to what I'm learning here. Cause it'll be the only way I'll get to go.

Heres to the future and many more pips profit!

[dpaterso]

Good morning everyone (I think - I hope)!!!

Thanks for the posts (overnight).

Listen - I won't / don't hate anybody that wants to try / use another system at all. Believe you me - right now - I'll try ANY system (or anything else for that matter) that will make money - quickly!!!

That's actually the problem you know i.e. 'quickly'!!!

The problem with what I (we) are doing here is that it's too slow. In other words - I have no doubt in my mind that Parabolic SAR does work - on it's own - or with a 'gazillion' confirmation indicators etc. etc. etc. The problem really is that it takes time to make money with this indicator and while I strongly believe that there is no quick way to make money in this business sometimes the pressure of having to pay bills etc. etc. etc. just becomes overwhelming so you panic and you start overtrading your account and taking chances and that's exactly what I've done - again. (OK - I probably speak for myself here but this is where I'm at at the moment).

Anyway - what else can a person do - but 'get up - dust the dust off - and keep trying'!!!

Regards,

Dale.

[dpaterso]

OK - well - I'm 'grasping at straws' here now - but - anyway - I'd like an opinion on what I've just found (again playing around with EMA's):

As a matter of fact - if there is anyone using MT4 and 'knows their oats' as far as backtesting goes then maybe somebody could do this for me and post the results (I can't get the 'f*****g' thing to work for me).

Well - it's a fact of life - that the 50 EMA (it's actually supposed to be the 50 DMA) and the 200 EMA (also supposed to be the 200 DMA) - are 'key' levels for any stock, commodity, forex pair, etc. etc. etc.

SO - I got to thinking - and looking - again - and I think that MAYBE I'm onto something else here - something VERY simple:

Put a 200 EMA on any chart and have a look at what happens.

If you sell or buy the moment the 200 EMA is crossed i.e. you don't wait for the price to close above or below the line - and you just keep repeating this 'action' over and over again - the end results 'appear' to be as follows:

1 - If you're wrong - you pretty much break even because the 200 EMA is very slow to react to the price changes.

2 - You're pretty much 'immune' to any whipsaws or anything like that (obviously this only applies on longer timeframes).

3 - You're profits are nowhere near as big as they could (or should be) but it would 'appear' that they are profits nonetheless.

4 - Because you 'pretty much' break even if the trade goes against you the only thing that you really lose (especially in a range bound market) is the spread so you can throw a great deal of margin at this type of trade as long as you can take losing the spread once or twice or three times in a row.

5 - If you want to try and maximise profits out of this your could revert back to using Parabolic SAR to take profits i.e. if the price is currently above the 200 EMA (you should be long at this point) you only take Parabolic SAR entry signals to go long (obviously the reverse applies if the price is below the 200 EMA and you are short) and you let Parabolic SAR 'lock in' profits.

6 - You could try and use the 50 EMA for trend confirmation and profit taking but you get 'whipsawed' a lot of the time.

7 - This appears to work very well on highly volatile instruments with low spreads e.g. GBP/JPY, DAX, stuff like that.

Have a look- tell me what you think.

I'll tell you - I'm about ready to throw in the towel with this 'bullsh*t'.

I've looked at all the other systems as well (thanks Rob) and I just don't see the merit there. For one thing - trying to use that EMA Step System - I can't see the 'f*****g' EMA's clearly enough on Delta's charts to warrant even trying to using it.

I really need to perfect a system - or find whatever system - with very low drawdowns and a pretty much guaranteed (albeit small) profit percentage. Possible? Not sure.

Regards,

Dale.

[pip huntter]

Dale,

the multi system guy!!!

ok Dale i am stoped again this morning with the GBF/CHF based on our new Rule but the good thing is that i didn't lose alot.

I can't back test this new system u r asking for coz i don't know how.I will have a look on this new system u r talking about and will let u know my opinion

Regards,

Akram

[pip huntter]

ok

I am playing the news now the reports came better thn expected if i will not get any thing from news i will never ever play it again!! let us see

Akram

[dpaterso]

Hey Akram,

How's it going my man?

'The Multi-System Guy' - I like that - although NONE of these 'systems' of mine seem to be working anymore. Actually - if something does not start working soon - you can call me 'The Broke Guy' - and that ain't no joke either my friend.

Anyway - I won't stop UNTIL I 'crack it' or until I'm broke - whichever comes first SO I have YET another system for you to have a look at and tell me what you think.

Sorry - just to be clear - the reason I ask you to look at these things is because I am so 'blinded' at the moment - I'm trying too hard to make things work this week and it's 'catching me in the tail' big time - and that's why I need a second opinion because I'm obviously missing something.

Anyway (and yes I know I'm WAY far away from Parabolic SAR at the moment) this 'new' system is based (loosely) on Wilder's 'Swing Index System' (just a whole lot simpler) and it's the only thing that's making me a bit of money right now so please - take a look (chart attached).

Basically all I've done is change my chart (in this case the 30 minute GBP/JPY chart) from a bar or candlestick chart to a line chart. The idea (for entry) is that you place an order to buy at a significant high point and an order to sell at a significant low point. Once either order is executed you cancel the other order. From that point on you are now (obvioulsy) in a trade. Now let's assume that your buy order was executed so that you are now long. Your initial stop loss is set to the previous significant low point. If this stop loss is not hit then you keep moving it to every new significant low point until you get stopped out. Once out you then repeat the above process.

It's better explained on the chart.

It works (hopefully) for the simple reason that price goes up and down and up and down but never (most of the time) to the exact previous point if that makes sense.

Take a look. It's the only thing that's consistently worked for me today.

Right now - even although this has made me NOT want to jump off something very high - I'm finding it very hard to actually trust myself at the moment.

Regards,

Dale.

[pip huntter]

Dale,

it is going bad!!!.

Well the news never worked out with me i will never bother with them any more.

Any ways i just want to say that PSAR is working quite well Dale the probelm is the exit that is all but i think the pure seck PSAR is great!!!

Ok i will have alook on this new system my friend and will give u my feed back so that means the 5 mint is not working???

Akram

[CharlesLioe]

Today i made some huge losses, due to stupidity on my part, i sold AUD/JPY on M5 chart, coz it went down, and tp was 5 pips, i thought it woud go down another 5 pip easily, went to sleep, woke up, and position was -70 pips.

anyway...

the problem with PSAR so far is imo, it works when the market trends, it doesnt work when it ranges. i say it also works when it ranges! you just do the exact opposite thing!

in a trending market: buy when top PSAR gets broken, sell when bottom PSAR gets broken

in a ranging market: buy when bottom PSAR gets broken, sell when top PSAR gets broken

now my problem is, how do i find out whether the market is trending or ranging at the moment? i am looking for an indicator which helps me determine whether it trends or ranges...

look at the pic, in the yellow range, buy at the blue line, sell at the red line

[dpaterso]

Hello,

OK - well - I'm not quite sure I see what you mean CharlesLioe - if I tried that on any of my charts it looks like I'd get 'f****d' even more than I have today (this week actually) - but maybe I'm not getting it so if you wouldn't mind please give us another chart.

As far as determining whether or not a market is ranging or trending the only indicators that I can think of that will (should) tell you this is ADX (if the value of ADX is less than 20 then the market theoretically is ranging or has no directional movement), MACD (if the MA's are 'flat' and intertwined), and the (proper) Alligator (when the three MA's are intertwined). Don't know if that helps.

Akram my friend - I don't know what it is. It seems that since I started throwing all this other stuff at this system everything has gone 'pear shaped'. I wouldn't take ANYTHING that I've posted today or yesterday ('system' wise) seriously i.e. I've been trying all of these 'methods' and nothing has worked. I've pretty much wiped out about $17K in the last week (and that's not including the $5.5K position that I'm holding on 'for dear life' on Gold). Make me feel better - are you saying that you're doing alright with 'pure' Parabolic SAR - I seem to have lost the plot!!!

I just don't know what the problem is anymore and I'm supposed to be making a living out of this - and it's not happening right now - and now things are worse.

Sorry folks.

Regards,

Dale.

[dpaterso]

As a matter of fact - is there ANYONE following this thread - that is trading live - and has been for about a year - and who IS actually doing this for a living - solely this for income??? This sounds crazy coming from me now (I know - it sounds like a 'new trader' question). The word 'consistently' comes to mind. I mean - in the past year or so it's been up and down and up and down and that's not a good way to live. It's not good having the occasional 'windfall' that allows you to service some overdue debts and then start the whole process over again and again. I mean to say - I've been self employed now for the better part of fifteen years - closed my other business - and decided to do this for a living. I've always said that there is no difference between running your own business and doing this - it's the same thing. Well - there is something that I didn't think of (maube did not want to face). Being self employed does not guarantee you an income every month - that's true - no customers - no contract work - no income. But this business not only does not guarantee you an income but (stating the obvious) can also actually cost you money - so - no - it cannot be the same as having a 'normal' business.

Anyway - let me know if you don't mind.

Regards,

Dale.