Parabolic SAR - that's all!

[jacioux]

Originally Posted by dpaterso

OK - well - I'm 'grasping at straws' here now - but - anyway - I'd like an opinion on what I've just found (again playing around with EMA's):

As a matter of fact - if there is anyone using MT4 and 'knows their oats' as far as backtesting goes then maybe somebody could do this for me and post the results (I can't get the 'f*****g' thing to work for me).

Well - it's a fact of life - that the 50 EMA (it's actually supposed to be the 50 DMA) and the 200 EMA (also supposed to be the 200 DMA) - are 'key' levels for any stock, commodity, forex pair, etc. etc. etc.

SO - I got to thinking - and looking - again - and I think that MAYBE I'm onto something else here - something VERY simple:

Put a 200 EMA on any chart and have a look at what happens.

If you sell or buy the moment the 200 EMA is crossed i.e. you don't wait for the price to close above or below the line - and you just keep repeating this 'action' over and over again - the end results 'appear' to be as follows:

1 - If you're wrong - you pretty much break even because the 200 EMA is very slow to react to the price changes.

2 - You're pretty much 'immune' to any whipsaws or anything like that (obviously this only applies on longer timeframes).

3 - You're profits are nowhere near as big as they could (or should be) but it would 'appear' that they are profits nonetheless.

4 - Because you 'pretty much' break even if the trade goes against you the only thing that you really lose (especially in a range bound market) is the spread so you can throw a great deal of margin at this type of trade as long as you can take losing the spread once or twice or three times in a row.

5 - If you want to try and maximise profits out of this your could revert back to using Parabolic SAR to take profits i.e. if the price is currently above the 200 EMA (you should be long at this point) you only take Parabolic SAR entry signals to go long (obviously the reverse applies if the price is below the 200 EMA and you are short) and you let Parabolic SAR 'lock in' profits.

6 - You could try and use the 50 EMA for trend confirmation and profit taking but you get 'whipsawed' a lot of the time.

7 - This appears to work very well on highly volatile instruments with low spreads e.g. GBP/JPY, DAX, stuff like that.

Have a look- tell me what you think.

I'll tell you - I'm about ready to throw in the towel with this 'bullsh*t'.

I've looked at all the other systems as well (thanks Rob) and I just don't see the merit there. For one thing - trying to use that EMA Step System - I can't see the 'f*****g' EMA's clearly enough on Delta's charts to warrant even trying to using it.

I really need to perfect a system - or find whatever system - with very low drawdowns and a pretty much guaranteed (albeit small) profit percentage. Possible? Not sure.

Regards,

Dale.

Dale,

I know this is going to be off the SAR but i use an Harami candle for my buys and look to grab about 10 pips be move. So far in about 15 trades i am up about 32 pips in 3 days. I dont use the Harami for a sell only a buy so the signal to buy comes about every hour for a few pips, i use a stop of the low of the previous candle that averages to be about a 5-8 pip loss. So your chart would be
15min stoch 7,3,3 wait for the harami to form and stoch are crossing up, i have attached a chart.

Again i know it has nothing to do with SAR but wanted to maybe help you out a bit, by the way i use this on EUR/USD, CHF/USD EUR/JPY but most other pairs it seem to work but i only use the 3 above.

And a harami is "A long white day is followed by a black day that gaps down and is completely engulfed by the real body of the first day. "

[jacioux]

Originally Posted by dpaterso

As a matter of fact - is there ANYONE following this thread - that is trading live - and has been for about a year - and who IS actually doing this for a living - solely this for income??? This sounds crazy coming from me now (I know - it sounds like a 'new trader' question). The word 'consistently' comes to mind. I mean - in the past year or so it's been up and down and up and down and that's not a good way to live. It's not good having the occasional 'windfall' that allows you to service some overdue debts and then start the whole process over again and again. I mean to say - I've been self employed now for the better part of fifteen years - closed my other business - and decided to do this for a living. I've always said that there is no difference between running your own business and doing this - it's the same thing. Well - there is something that I didn't think of (maube did not want to face). Being self employed does not guarantee you an income every month - that's true - no customers - no contract work - no income. But this business not only does not guarantee you an income but (stating the obvious) can also actually cost you money - so - no - it cannot be the same as having a 'normal' business.

Anyway - let me know if you don't mind.

Regards,

Dale.

Dale, this is my second year doing this full time, the first few months were hard and the stress was unreal but i guess my advice for what its worth is have a good base system you can build off of and can trust. You are going to have a few losses along the way but they come with playing this game, get them out of your system and then the few you get wont bother you when your winners hit big.

So hang in there I average about 600 pips a month and i am not looking to make a ton of money just a stedy stream.

[pip huntter]

Dale,

I am really so sorry for your major loss thay r alot.17k means alot.i know u know that too.

I don't know what to say but it think next week i will look at at any postions in different way.

What i will do is that very restrected entry and exit where i will only open postions based on PSAR as it is working with the dailt time frame the problem is with when to exit i have a thought which is i will only run it till i have a targt of 150 pips and i will ganble 150 pips in loss this is the main thing that i will do from now on 150 in day time frame is not alot that means only 2 days or 3 days max or may be less. i think with the help of other indicators as well that will be good.
Again there is nothing that is 100% grantee in this bunsiess.any system that every body invented has it is own moments .but again PSAR is working quite well we can even make it 50 pips not 150 and we can make the lot size in each trade much more than normal like 3 lots or 2 whatever u think it is good for u even if the market is ranging it will move 50 pips up in your faviour.

How do u thing Dale is this make sence??

look at it from different angle at some point during this week i was having 350 pips profit in my account for the 3 postions i was holding i had been stoped with with 2 of them the other one which shows some profit is the USD/CHF 90 pips in profit offcourse profit for me right now means i am trying to get my account back to normal!!!.

Regards,

Akram

Regard,

Akram

[pip huntter]

Dale,


I FEEL SO BAD NOW COZ I FEEL U R SO UPSET FROM YOUR LOSSES.

I can't say much to make u feel better but look at it as i posted before that u r a boxer and u have 5 days a week to fight.ofcourse u will have some lossses as Mohamed Alli the greatiest he had so many losses but he was able to survive and win much more than his losses that i why he is the greatiest for all time!!! don't rethink again just through all the bad trades that u had behind your back then foucus on your next fight don't over fight (overtrade your account) trust your slef and your system whenever u have any new system try it with minilot or demo account before applying in real account.

I am sure most people who r trying to trade through forex is trying to make this as a living but they r not sure whether this will pay off their bills or not so they r testing with small amount till they r sure of the system and them selfs and then they will put real money!!!

thank good that when u started the PSAR system u were able to make good money other wise u will be crying for real right now.

Regards,
Akram

[VonSmeid]

I made some calculation on €/USD (4hour chart).

Based only on Par. SAR

Theoreticaly if I always entered at closing price and get out at closing price I would make 401 pips in 2-3 months.

You enter when first Par. SAR appears and exit when the first Par. SAR appears on the other side of the price line.



Check in the chart under. Please give me comments.

It seems like free money.

Here is results of each trade. I hope u get the picture.

+109 -20 -55 -65 -41 +16 +265 +23 +215 -43 +91 +81 -4 -20 -112 -81 +42 =+401(SUM)


Thank you.

AK

[robstyle1980]

Dale,

I'll try to offer some advice too from my observations. Now, I don't have any experience or anything, but I'll try to help.

What I've noticed is that it seems like you are trying too hard to get that huge profit, "the big money." Its like you are trying to force that big money "win" that you can't force no matter what you do. When you did get that big win way back, you were trading your system and suddenly you were way up. It just happens. Now I think you're trying to force that big win again and its not going to happen.

I'm under the impression that the ones who make a ton at this don't rely on the chance of making the big win. They take it one day at a time. They trade their system to the "t" and don't stray or use feelings. And if their system isn't working in range bound times, I'm sure they have a backup. While doing this, they may only make 20-50 pips or less in one day. Instead of looking at that as a loss, it is a win. They're still making a profit whether its $200 or $2.

Also, they don't chew more than they can swallow. Sure, you have to risk more to gain more... but never risking more than you can. You'll just f*** yourself royally. You need to set up a way to take profits. Don't get greedy and so what if the trend kept going... oh well. At least you came out with profits instead of the thing rebounding and taking you into the negatives and you lose everything.

Small steps. You can't climb Everest running straight up it, you have to plan route and take small steps to get to the top. Small gains are better than no gains. And to illustrate that and defend the system I posted, last night I made about 70 pips in 4 hours watching the 30min charts using that system. I had 80 and could've taken profits, but I was being greedy and wanted it to go higher, but it didn't. So I happily took the 70 pips I could get. Sure I had to sit in front of the computer every half hour, but thats the job.

As in any business, you need to make a business plan. Since you are trying to make this your business, then I would suggest writing up a business plan. Even just for yourself, write out an informal plan stating what you expect to do and what you expect to get out of this. Be realistic. Set goals. Reach those goals and be happy.

With the writing things down idea... maybe you need to sit down and write out your system on paper so you can pin it up and look at it. Stick notes on it, make changes, add things... do it all so you can look at it and really see the system. Get it out of your head on onto paper. Maybe then you'll be able to see where you can make changes or add things.

I'm not trying to belittle you or sound condescending as I'm sure you've already thought about a lot of this and I know I'm not talking to a child. Hey, I'm the child here, to be honest. I just hope I'm helping you to rethink these things and get your mind jumping on what you are doing. Sometimes you just need a jump start to figure things out.

Thanks for reading my self-help novel. You can send me donations in the form of USD.

keep on truckin', Dale.

[VonSmeid]

I red some of your postings Dale, and that gave me an ispiration to that title. Dont want to be insulting, but I suggest you to calm down and try make money (less but for sure).

Would anybody be so kind now and make a comment on my previous posting.

Thank you.


AK

[dpaterso]

OK - well - first - the technical stuff:

VonSmeid (Ak) - thanks for the post. I'm sorry though - I'm having a bad week - and I really don't seem to be able to grasp things today - so please could you post another, bigger, chart with another explanation - I'm interested to see what you've come up with. If you're saying what I think you're saying then it does kind of 'fit in' with something that I have noticed over the months - and that is that (normally), when you first get into a Parabolic SAR trade, the most profit is made in the first two or three bars - the rest comes slowly - and then of course the inevitable reversal. Is this something along the lines of what you're saying? Please let us know.

Now for the personal stuff:

Akram - I appreciate your concern. Thanks.

jacioux, Rob, Glendon - also - thank a lot.

Rob - in no way do I feel 'belittled' or anything like that - I appreciate everything you had to say.

I'll tell you what the main problem is. I had a fairly successful business for nearly fifteen years up until about a year a go or so but I just could not handle it anymore (I've posted about this before) and I had some (quite a bit actually) money and decided that this is what I wanted to do for a living (after demo trading 'on the side' for a while and making good profits although the profits were not the 'allure' believe it or not - just the quality of life that I thought it would bring). Anyway - between using the money that I had to pay bills the last couple of months and sinking a whole lot of it (probably the greater part of it) into trading - and losing - I'm now pretty much down to whatever is in my trading accounts - and this really is not a good situation. Knowing this puts pressure on you like you can't believe. You don't want to draw on your capital to pay bills because then you have to decrease your lot sizes so your profits get smaller and it takes longer to make money to pay the bills which is exactly what is happening i.e. last month I had to draw on my capital and if I have to do that now I might as well 'shut up shop'. The irony is that the more you draw on and reduce your capital the bigger risks you start taking - how crazy is that? Basically 'it feeds on itself'. So - that's my situation 'in a nutshell'. Over the past couple of months I've made some good profits but they are FAR outweighed by the losses and - I suppose - if the truth be told - I would never have started even trying to follow a system until I was 'down to the wire' - which is where I could see myself going a month or two ago. That 'reality check' is probably the main reason that I stepped back - had a look at exactly what it is that I was doing wrong - and then started to follow a system 'doggedly' and - it paid off at first - that's what started the thread - and - like I said before - the WORST thing that could have happened is the 'windfall' that I had back then because it fooled me into thinking that I'd finally 'got it right'.

Anyway - I suppose there is nothing left to do but come back next week fighting!!! (You must know things are bad if I'm not sitting in front of my home theatre system watching Nightwish - THE OLD NIGHTWISH OF COURSE - with a bottle of Captain Morgan at hand. I suppose - fortuanately - I don't drink my problems away - I only drink when I'm happy thank goodness)!!!

Anyway - have a lovely weekend everybody - and thanks again for all the posts and concern - it really is much appreciated - especially because this is not the type of thing that could be discussed at home (at least not in my home) so - to be honest - I'd have no support or constructive input without you lot.

Don't worry folks - I'll have Lacuna Coil playing in my back garden and throw that party for you all as promised - it might just not be as soon as I would have liked - that's all!!!

Regards,

Dale.

[VonSmeid]

...Dale if you have some much problems finding a strategy that works for you, why dont you try some on demo account. I belive that if you want to trade for real money you should be very confident in your method. You should work it out on your demo. You sound very much like a pathological gambler. And we all know where they end up. So I dont feel sorry for you. It is your foult if you cant take a deep breath and try to take it easy. All pathological gamblers need help. I hope this helps.

I have been playing poker alot and I know people who are just like you. They think they know how to win alot, than they see that their method doesnt work anymore, and they try another style and so on. If they were more consistent with one system life would be much easier for them. And for me knowing them.

AK

[dpaterso]

Hey Ak - sorry - we must have been 'overtyping' each other - I did respond to your post - but I'm not sure if I 'get it' (see my previous post).

Oh - and - the title of your message does not offend me at all - probably very good advice.

Just one thing though - don't think that I'm looking for sympathy from you - I'm not - but if you've been following this thread - you'll know that I've gone out of my way to be as open and honest as I can - about everything - the good AND the bad - and I do know that this 'ongoing saga' has benefited more than one person by allowing them to see - for real - what trading for a living can be like i.e. it's not 'get rich quick' and it CAN destroy you if you're not careful. It's one thing reading about 'trading psychology' from a book - it's another getting it 'out of the horses mouth'.

By the way - as I was typing this message - I got your last message as well. I don't know why it is that you think I am expecting you to feel sorry for me - I'm not - as explained above - and - I'll tell you something else - I've never gambled - nor ever been interested in gambling - so I don't agree with you at all.

Uh - if you don't mind ME asking - do YOU trade for a living???

Now instead of wasting your time laying into me would you rather not post a better explanation of what you've discovered so that we can all try and learn something from it!!!

Regards,

Dale.