Parabolic SAR - that's all!

[gagan]

Hi Dale,

I see you are minting money these days good on ya mate. Just wanted to talk regarding deltastock with you...in another thread you were raving about it but after i looked at their website....i get a feeling they are a bucketshop like FXCM Onanda and all...

Your comments would be appreciated.

Regards

Gagan

[dpaterso]

Hi gagan,

Yes - I'm doing well out of forex at the moment - I just hope it lasts (no reason it shouldn't with 'pure' Parabolic SAR by the looks of things so far)!!!

As far as Delta Stock goes - have a look at my messages on the 'Rate my broker' forum on babypips.com (as a matter of fact I have to post a retort to someone right now on that thread after finishing this message to you)!

I'm not sure what 'qualifies' a broker as a 'bucket shop' BUT - compared to my other 'main' broker (it's so bad that I'm scared to mention their name in case my orders get 'slipped' even more) - Delta is tops - and - like I say in the aforementioned thread - I really don't care - the only money I have ever lost at Delta has been my own fault i.e. due to my lack of experience and bad trades - not because I was in the right position at the right time with the right order - and the dealer at my 'main' broker was having a coffee break or was too busy so he could not execute my order when it was placed ten minutes ago (these are the type of things I'm told on the phone by the dealing desk when I call to see why the f**k I've been waiting so long for an order to be executed)!!! Actually - their 'record' (at my so called 'main' broker which I'm scared to even mention at this point until I close the account and move EVERYTHING to Delta) is thirty or so minutes to get a stop order executed AND THEN IT WAS STILL 'SLIPPED' - can you beat that!!! Get the picture?

Regards,

Dale.

[dundee]

I started to do this sar daily yesterday and I now have 13 positions open and 6 of them is in profit, but anyone of them haven't hit the stop-loss. I just have to give them time to go green


It would be nice if you would keep posting your profit like every friday and say how much you've earned.


Do you think it's a problem that platform that I use, the new sar dot appears at 00:00 but during the day the dot can move from top to bottom?

thanks

[dpaterso]

Hi dundee (any telling where you are from)??? Australia maybe???

I'm glad that someone other than myself is monitoring this thread! Thanks! It makes my late nights worth it!

Unfortuanately - with Parabolic SAR - the most difficult thing to do is to wait until the stop is taken out (and hopefully profit has already been locked in when that happens). I know - when I made all that money last week - I bailed early because I could not stand it anymore. That's why I say that with this indicator you are 'tradevesting' not 'trading' i.e. had I not taken all that profit last week when I did - I've had a good look - I would not have made as much - no question - BUT - I do believe that although I would not have made as much in those couple of days - I would have made some - not lost - and although last weeks profit would have been less had I not bailed out early - I firmly believe that in the long run - I would come out tops without question. The key - I really believe - is to open your positions - and leave them - don't try and analyse them - and DON'T look at what the potential loss of your current stop loss is - you'll get cold feet (on one of my positions - GBP/CAD I think it is - the 'potential' loss if the stop gets hit today is something like $7K - and - on more than one occasion this week - I have been tempted to close that position - which is in a small profit at the moment - but - I have not). One thing that gives me 'comfort' as it were is that I try to remember that a Parabolic SAR dot does not just 'appear' for no reason - there IS a complex calculation behind it.

As far as Parabolic SAR dots 'jumping' around during the course of the day is concerned - I have noticed this on two of my three platforms - and - to be honest - I never know what to do - so I don't have the answer. I suppose I normally err on the 'risky' side and accept that whatever dot appeared when the daily chart ticked over then that's the one I accept and leave (that's another reason why I make a point of being at my workstation THE VERY MOMENT that the daily chart ticks over so that I am not left to my own devices to make a decision i.e. if a dot has appeared - even if my 'gut feel' tells me it should not be there - I take the position - and - I can tell you - that in the last two weeks - Parabolic SAR has been right - and I've been wrong - 99% of the time).

Regards,

Dale.

[dpaterso]

Actually - I've been meaning to add this post for a little while now:

You know what really 'fascinates' me about this indicator? Stare at the charts long enough (I do this all day every day) and it starts to appear that this indicator 'follows' or rather 'keeps you following' the people who actually KNOW how to trade? I know that sounds strange but have a look at time when there has been a economic release or something like that. Nine times out of ten (OK - maybe not that high but high nevertheless) Parabolic SAR is already moving in the direction of the spike. Just have a look. In other words - it's almost like this indicator is capable of 'following' the banks, the market makers, the 'people in the know' if you know what I mean.

Have I just lost the plot???

Regards,

Dale.

[dpaterso]

I rest my case!!!

Durable Goods just out - now over $17K up - almost all of the positions that I have open - were already going in the right direction - thanks to 'pure' Parabolic SAR.

There is one other thing that I want to add here:

Please know that I am not trying to 'boast' about my profits at the moment. I really am not - I am just trying to 'prove' this indicator - and of course - yes - make money. The reason that I mention this is because I know that there are probably a couple of new people out there monitoring this thread - and using this indicator - and seeing what I've managed to do in the last two or three weeks - and it's not working for them - and they are getting discouraged - and feeling low because of the money that they have probably lost. I know because I have felt like this many many times i.e. 'How come I'm following everything in the book and I'm still losing'? Please do not feel like this (I know it's easy for me to say right now). I do know how you feel - you'd pass out if you knew the total figure of the money that I am still down to date - but - if there is one thing that I have learned in the past six or seven months - is that if you REALLY want to do this - for the right reasons - and you stick at it - and refuse to let other peoples opinions and comments take you down - and you have patience - and realise that trading is not 'gambling' nor is it 'get rich quick' - it's damn hard work - and more stressful than most other jobs - YOU WILL EVENTUALLY SUCCEED! And more importantly - when you do succeed - don't be afraid to give yourself a 'pat on the back' and maybe enjoy a little bit of your profits (and - again - on this subject - yes - PROFITS - THEY WILL COME) - you've earned it!!!

What I did come to realise was that although I 'thought' or I was 'convinced' I was following everything in the book - I really was not - it took me months and months to start using stop losses - and when I started using them - it took me some more time to stop moving them - and now that I've stopped moving them - I'm still bailing out because my 'gut' tells me to - not for any other good reason and I know that because of my limited experience (there are people that have been doing this for a living all of their lives and are 'qualified' to make a decision based on THEIR 'gut' feel) I am not 'qualified' to make a decision based on MY 'gut' feel - and yet - I keep doing it. I hope you get what I'm trying to say. It does not matter what 'system' or indicator you use - as long as you actually do have a 'system' - and stick to it. When you are chopping and changing between timeframes and setting stop losses here today but then at a different place tomorrow and then changing again and again the next day - you don't have a system - and you will lose money.

Once again - if you REALLY want to do this for a living - don't give up - and YOU WILL SUCCEED!!!

Regards,

Dale.

[dundee]

i'm from finland.

I forgot to ask you that do you close all your positions for the weekend?

[dpaterso]

dundee:

Finland! You have got to be kidding me!!! I'm so happy!!!

Does the name 'Tarja Turunen' mean anything to you???

Nightwish???

So far - no - I intend just leaving them to run UNLESS - I get to some 'ridiculously' high profit figure - then - I'll admit - I'm gutless - I'll probably close them out!!!

The one 'good' thing about having so many positions open is that it would appear that for the most part I'm earning interest as well but that is obviously just because of the direction of things at the moment - it could be going the other way and then I'd be paying interest.

Regards,

Dale.

[dpaterso]

Here is just another one or two observations (I'm not sure what they mean so I'm hoping that somebody with a far better understanding of 'fundamentals' and/or 'technical analysis' will see this post and give their opinion).

I have noticed that the profit / loss / movement on my (currently) 34 or so forex positions (at one broker) moves almost exactly in tandem with movements of the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq 100 (at another broker) i.e. Dow up - forex profits up - Dow down - forex profits down. What would be a reasonable explanation for this? I could understand if I only had ???/USD or USD/??? forex positions open but I have some weird things open as well like the RON/SEK/NOK/BGN/TRY (when I say 'weird' I mean that they are not the major pairs and no disrespect is intended) so why would these positions be affected by, or at least move, in tandem, with the Indices (mainly the US Indices)?

I've also started to notice that the more positions I have open - the less the profit on forex positions is fluctuating (I have touched on this before in this thread). In other words - I'm really starting to think that you (I) will eventually land in a sort of 'perfect hedge' situation with all of these different pairs and the profit figure will eventually reach an 'equilibrium' point where it wont get much bigger or smaller. What do you think? Would it not be better to just be trading, for example, ONLY GBP/??? pairs, or ONLY USD/??? pairs, or ONLY ???/NOK pairs (you get the picture)? Not sure - and can't get it right in my mind.

Edit:

On the other hand - is it possible that - once your losing positions all get stopped out using Parabolic SAR - and you stop and reverse on all of those positions - that you would land up in a situation where each and every single pair would then be going in the same Parabolic SAR direction? In other words you would land in a position where each and every single pair is basically moving in exact step with the market/s as whole?

On the other (other) had - I did read somewhere that forex pairs don't move AGAINST each other - each pair actually, really, just moves up and down in tandem with each other to different levels (in the long run that is) or something like that.

Comments on the above would be GREATLY appreciated.

Regards,

Dale.

[dundee]

Originally Posted by dpaterso

dundee:

YOU HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME!!! I'M SO HAPPY!!!

DOES THE NAME 'TARJA TURUNEN' MEAN ANYTHING TO YOU???

NIGHTWISH???

Of course I know tarja turunen and nightwish. You like them?


Nightwishs new lead singer ain't that good. she just can't replace tarja.


Am I right that you are from south africa?