Parabolic SAR - that's all!

[ChuckNorris]

Originally Posted by Ingot54

Wow Chucknorris

Trading 101 in 3 easy lessons!

1. "Money management includes tight stop losses and profit taking when it is on offer."

Money management is MUCH more than that.
What it does NOT include is TIGHT stop losses.

Hhmmm think about is now. Why would you use a wide stop unless you cant make 1000 pips on a trade. Which is very unlikely since the market is in ranging mode almost 66% of the time?

The 95% of traders who lose that you refer to would be scalpers, day traders and the 1-Minute-to-15-minute traders. After that it gets progressively less dangerous.

No it is not

You can not issue a blanket statement espousing the virtues of tight stops without giving an example. If I am trading weekly bars, what is the point of my using tight stops?

The point of tight stops are to preserve capital. Without capital preservation you will not have an account to trade with.

Yet trading weekly bars has not only rid me finally of membership of the 95% group, it has negated the need to use stop losses at all - other than for 9/11 events, where I do employ an arbitrary 250-pip SL purely as a left-field-contingency measure.


See what you dont realize yet is that even though you dont place a stop loss, you actually do have a stop loss.....it is called your account. Once you hit a margin call then your stop loss kicks in. No succesful trader trades without stop losses. So you are far from the 5% that is succesful.

I would say that good money management involves using WIDE stops ... but then that is from MY perspective, and I obviously trade differently from the masses.

Yes and i bet you will blow your account within 5 months time

2. "Don't take any trade with a risk/reward ratio of less than 1:3"

This sort of stuff is only put out by the systems sellers to further hoodwink desperate traders. 10 traders will look at a trade and come up with 10 different "Risk: Reward" scenarios.


Ok your ignorance show. Until you dont see the value of risk/reward i will not take your comments about trading seriously. So as far as i am concerned your just a newby slowly loosing his account.

In fact, traders who wrack their brains trying to get all this stuff aligned just become more confused and begin to feel they are missing out somewhere - they feel inadequate and work even harder to overcome perceived deficits in their knowledge and understanding.

Sounds like your the one that is confused my friend.

Unfortunately your statement has added to this tangled mess of "prerequisites" for entering a trade. Again, you give no examples - just half-baked repetition of something that someone told you, that they heard form someone who ...yada yada!

Wrong. This is how i make a living. But tell you what. When your strategie dont work....and it will only be a matter of time....then you contact me again and i will show you how to trade profitably

There is a whole industry out there pedalling this rubbish. And the sad part is most of them BELIEVE their own hype! Nothing more ironic than a system seller who is a believer of his own myths!

The fact that you even looked at system seller websites tell me how desperate you are to make a few pips.

3. "Get a trading system that gives you 4 winning trades out of 10 attempts. But that system should also give you a 1:3 risk/reward ratio. The best system to use to accomplish this is to use trendlines and chart patterns. Forget about Moving Averages, MACD, RSI, PSAR, Bollinger Bands, Envelopes, etc. They DO NOT work."

There are actually 4 points in that statement, so we have to unwind the myth a bit at a time with this one ...

3a. "Get a trading system that gives you 4 wins in 10 attempts"
Why not 5-from-10 ... 7-from-10?

Because 3 winners give you breakeven. So 4 trades would put you in winning position.

That is a statement that is as shallow as I have heard. How do you measure this "system" and how do you know the PSAR is NOT such a system already?

HHmmm...let's see....one indicators called a system.......dude you need to do some serious forex research....

So far your posting record on this thread is: ONE post ... ONE king hit on the thread!

How about asking a question or two and offering some guidance and support to all of the people who have been working their insides out to bring something of value to the forum?

You can work all you want. Your Psar will not work. Point

That would be in keeping with the spirit and intent of the thread.

3b. "But that system should also give you a 1:3 risk/reward ratio"
Already debunked this one - a mythical red-herring introduced and designed to make traders feel disillusioned with their efforts. Very discouraging to a trader who is already struggling.

One day you will see the importance of this 1:3 risk/reward ratio. Until then you will keep loosing money.

3c. "The best system to use to accomplish this is to use trendlines and chart patterns."

Probably the only statement you have uttered that contains a modicum of substance.

However, again I have to take issue ... there is NO BEST SYSTEM.

Traders have to trade within their own Risk Profile - even if they have not defined that for themselves. It may be that they love scalping ... then that is the system BEST for them. Or like myself - they may like position trading ... fits comfortably with the risk profile.

If there is a "BEST" system, it is one that the traders has developed for himself/herself ... one that they "OWN" through putting their own stamp on it. I am sure this is what I did, and other successful traders have done.

Trendline and chart patterns actually ARE important parameters but in my view, no system can be rated against another unless time frames are compared, and even then all you have is a set of probabilities that an entry in one system or the other is LIKELY to give you a winning edge in the trade.

Of course there are NO guarantees - systems stop working ... and defunct systems can "come back to life" and begin to fire again. It just happens that way.

3d."Forget about Moving Averages, MACD, RSI, PSAR, Bollinger Bands, Envelopes, etc. They DO NOT work."

WHAT?

Could you please offer some evidence of the failure of all of the named indicators. You probably should throw in Stochastics and CCI while you are making blanket statement s ... but I am only being facetious!

The fact that you ask me to offer evidence amazes me. All the indicators are lagging. They tell you what has happened 10, 15, 20 or 100 bars ago. What good is that?

Some very good traders are using EXACTLY these indicators.

Yes seems we have different opinions of what good traders are....

They may/may not trade by them (some do) but they sure as eggs do use them to extract their edge ... and they certainly ARE used by successful traders to effect their entry. Many traders actually manage their trades using these indicators.

Not the ones i know. but then again you will not know Ed Ponsi, Jerry Furst, Rob Booker, Boris Schlossberg, Kathy Lien, Tony Just. I suspect your knowledge is limited to people on this forum.

The thing is ... they need to be used in the time frames and context under which they were developed. PSAR DOES work ... that has already been shown in this thread. It is an excellent entry/exit indicator, but my personal refinement of it (if I used it) would be to use a couple of different timeframes to fine-tune entry/exit.

As an exit indicator PSAR is outstanding.

Much the same could be said in support of the other indicators.

Chucknorris - like your alter-ego you have burst through the door, found yourself on the wrong movie-set, stomped and romped all over the hard work of others who have put in countless hours on this project, and left the building ... nothing positive - just a smoking ruin!

You should try another approach Chucknorris -

Try entering the room quietly, ask a couple of questions, understand why the work is ongoing and who the main contributors are. Then politely, you might have the right to make a tentative suggestion or two, and could expect to be taken seriously.

Keep your brashness for your movies!

Anyway enjoy your trading. But remember what i told you. Soon you will get so frustrated with trading that you will look me up again and ask me for advice. Because there are 3 things that all succesful traders have in common. And those are the 3 things i mentioned

[ChuckNorris]

Originally Posted by mastergunner99

By itself I would agree that it wouldn't be the wisest decision to focus on PSAR. However, it's still a fantastic indicator. Personally, I use PSAR as a primary indicator and use MACD as a way to dispel any potential whipsaw that might occur with PSAR. So far so good.

Also, with this type of system, I find it's almost necessary to have multiple positions open. The entire market doesn't move up and down at the same time. There are pairs that move up, while their are pairs that are moving down. So yes, drawdown will occur. However, as I play it, what drawdown does occur is buried in the profits from my other open positions.

At any given time I generally have between 15-20 open positions. Never once coming close to a margin call as I use proper money management.

I use .001% of my NAV to calculate my pip value to determine how many units I buy/sell per trade. Have yet to even come close to a margin call. Currently, I have 17 positions open that are pulling in 1000+ pips at the moment. And that's on my live account. My demo account is kicking major ass having doubled my NAV in a single month.

Lastly, I wouldn't be so quick to disparage so many indicators as useless. Those indicators are still around because they still have value.

Ok what i understand is that your basically hedging yourself? Why go short on say usd/chf is you went short on eur/usd because those two currencies have inverse correlation? Or why would you wanna short CAD when oil prices are high because oil and CAD go together. If the one goes up the other will follow. The same for gbp/usd and eur/usd. Hedging is just another way to put yourself checkmate in the long run as we have seen with so many hedge traders burning themselves in recent months.

Look i am not here to diss the psar system that the creator of this thread started. I am here to tell you what you need to be succesful in forex trading and i dont see it on this thread.

[tonymand]

Seems to me a case of handbags at 40 paces ladies!

There are very few absolutes in this business except that most people are underesourced, overleveraged and woefully ill prepared. Chart patterns, indicators, systems, TA in general and fundamental analysis all have their pros and cons and various proponents and detractors. As always I believe comments should be made politely and with due respect to others on the forum and in a way that wont further bamboozle the already bamboozled.

Most people want to do a couple of hours work at most and be given a system that will make them billionaires in about 45 secs. Most are too idle even to read the babypips school as evidenced by the questions they repeatedly ask.

Sounds like both of you guys are doing OK at this business, excellent. The insights you offer may well differ but that doesnt make either of them right or wrong. As always the reader will have to find from what you say what fits them personally. For instance is a tight stop good or bad - as with most things in fx - it depends!

[Ingot54]

This is becoming a pi**ing contest Chucknorris

If you were really the guntrader you allude to be, your attitude would not be condescending, but humble.

You would be apt to teach, not denigrate and criticise.

You would teach by questioning, not pointing fingers at perceived error.

Real teachers don't stomp around the classroom telling students "Look at me. Remember it was ME who told you blah blah " and they certainly don't make predictions about the future failure of traders who just happen to have a system that works, albeit different from their own.

I do not accept your put-down :"So you are far from the 5% who are successful" and "I'll bet you will blow your account in 5 month's time."

What arrogance and temerity!

Take your arrogance and clear off Chucknorris - you don't know the first thing about trading - Johnny-come-lately is my view - else you would have experienced much more than your own perspective.

I have nothing to prove to you, but I have documented evidence of 11 stopped (discretionary stops, not "hit" stops) trades from 52, and the last 17 of them winners - in fact my a/c climbs by 6% (not compounded) per week.

You certainly have a cheek coming into this thread and stomping around saying yours is the only method, and others are bound for failure.

Have you ever heard of position trading?

You have twisted my intent by purposely ignoring that I said I use 250-pip stops as a contingency against 9/11 events. For position traders (and I WON'T disclose my method) close stops only serve to intercept noise, and close out the trade PREMATURELY. My average is 350 pips - granted I do not make 1000-pip trades. One day ... !

Your tight stops tell me that you have NEVER made a 1000-pip trade, and you are blowing through the hole in your hat. Time you investigated FX trading 102 my friend - there are other methods outside your front gate.

************************************************** ***********

2. "Don't take any trade with a risk/reward ratio of less than 1:3"

"This sort of stuff is only put out by the systems sellers to further hoodwink desperate traders. 10 traders will look at a trade and come up with 10 different "Risk: Reward" scenarios."

My comments still stand - I repeat this is the stuff System Sellers use to confuse traders who struggle, in order to get them to buy their system.

As far as your statement "Wrong! This is how I make a living" goes ... I suggest your motive for stepping in the door of this thread is to peddle you latest eBook or u-Beaut system!

Tell me I'm wrong Chucknorris - reeks of "I've got this great system for $49.95 ... yada"
************************************************** ************
"The fact that you even looked at system seller websites tell me how desperate you are to make a few pips."

Whether I look at websites or not is none of your concern - typical ploy when cornered - turn the heat back at the spotlight. The spotlight is on YOU Chucknorris - not me. If you look back over my posts here and on several other FX forums, where I use the same nic, you might come to see I actually am a teacher of FX trading, as well as running my own a/c.

Look for it yourself - I have nothing to prove to the likes of you.

Your premise that you need a system that gives "4 wins from 10 attempts" is seriously flawed. All that it is possible to do is to define a higher probability (an edge). I have NEVER seen a system that can GUARANTEE 4-from-10 ... unless you have one for sale vis a vis: "Come back and see me when ..."

Using a 1:3 risk:reward is a useless money-management system - as ethereal as your other claims. Unless you actually KNOW your probability and outcome, it is not possible to assign a risk:reward to any trade. Oh yes, you can do it ... but the runs of losses will take it all away.

Regarding LAGGING indicators ... you seem to have an opinion that these are useless. I would agree that they are less-than-useful in time-frames less than 1 hour, but after that they come into their own. There is nothing wrong with lagging indicators - successful traders DO use them.

You ask: "What good is that?" now YOU are showing some inexperience dude! Lagging and/or forward/predictive indicators each have their place - it depends on the strategy used.

Only an arrogant person would dismiss the strategy used by others as inferior. This is just NOT the case - you are misleading people here Chucknorris.

Name-dropping shows your insecurity Chucknorris -

"Not the ones i know. but then again you will not know Ed Ponsi, Jerry Furst, Rob Booker, Boris Schlossberg, Kathy Lien, Tony Just. I suspect your knowledge is limited to people on this forum."

The only person in the group I have had dealings with is Rob Booker - The others I disregard, having read their ezines ad nauseum - largely promoting scalping rubbish - re-hashed to death. The kind of stuff I would look at if I wanted to screen-gaze all day. If you are truly a successful trader Chucknorris, you would have long ago evolved into a position trader with a real life.

I need to check my trades only every couple of days, though I do look in the mornings and again in the evenings - I don't need to, and in fact doing so can tempt traders to make irrational decisions.

Your closing statement in response to my rebuttal says it all:

"Anyway enjoy your trading. But remember what i told you. Soon you will get so frustrated with trading that you will look me up again and ask me for advice. Because there are 3 things that all succesful traders have in common. And those are the 3 things i mentioned"

A case of: "If you won't play with me I'll take my marbles and go somewhere else ... you'll be sorry ... you'll be back..."

I won't have to look you up Chucknorris - I'll just look for a huge ego ... you'll be right there on the other end of it.

In the interests of maintaining the goodwill of this Babypips forum, I will desist from further comment Chucknorris - whatever barbs you choose to use to goad further comment.

If you want to win this comp - easy ... you win!

But I will be looking for your eBook when it comes out - which I expect is what you are really priming us for.

$49.95 ... ?

[ChuckNorris]

Originally Posted by Ingot54

This is becoming a pi**ing contest Chucknorris

If you were really the guntrader you allude to be, your attitude would not be condescending, but humble.

You would be apt to teach, not denigrate and criticise.

You would teach by questioning, not pointing fingers at perceived error.

Real teachers don't stomp around the classroom telling students "Look at me. Remember it was ME who told you blah blah " and they certainly don't make predictions about the future failure of traders who just happen to have a system that works, albeit different from their own.

I do not accept your put-down :"So you are far from the 5% who are successful" and "I'll bet you will blow your account in 5 month's time."

What arrogance and temerity!

Take your arrogance and clear off Chucknorris - you don't know the first thing about trading - Johnny-come-lately is my view - else you would have experienced much more than your own perspective.

I have nothing to prove to you, but I have documented evidence of 11 stopped (discretionary stops, not "hit" stops) trades from 52, and the last 17 of them winners - in fact my a/c climbs by 6% (not compounded) per week.

You certainly have a cheek coming into this thread and stomping around saying yours is the only method, and others are bound for failure.

Have you ever heard of position trading?

You have twisted my intent by purposely ignoring that I said I use 250-pip stops as a contingency against 9/11 events. For position traders (and I WON'T disclose my method) close stops only serve to intercept noise, and close out the trade PREMATURELY. My average is 350 pips - granted I do not make 1000-pip trades. One day ... !

Your tight stops tell me that you have NEVER made a 1000-pip trade, and you are blowing through the hole in your hat. Time you investigated FX trading 102 my friend - there are other methods outside your front gate.

************************************************** ***********

2. "Don't take any trade with a risk/reward ratio of less than 1:3"

"This sort of stuff is only put out by the systems sellers to further hoodwink desperate traders. 10 traders will look at a trade and come up with 10 different "Risk: Reward" scenarios."

My comments still stand - I repeat this is the stuff System Sellers use to confuse traders who struggle, in order to get them to buy their system.

As far as your statement "Wrong! This is how I make a living" goes ... I suggest your motive for stepping in the door of this thread is to peddle you latest eBook or u-Beaut system!

Tell me I'm wrong Chucknorris - reeks of "I've got this great system for $49.95 ... yada"
************************************************** ************
"The fact that you even looked at system seller websites tell me how desperate you are to make a few pips."

Whether I look at websites or not is none of your concern - typical ploy when cornered - turn the heat back at the spotlight. The spotlight is on YOU Chucknorris - not me. If you look back over my posts here and on several other FX forums, where I use the same nic, you might come to see I actually am a teacher of FX trading, as well as running my own a/c.

Look for it yourself - I have nothing to prove to the likes of you.

Your premise that you need a system that gives "4 wins from 10 attempts" is seriously flawed. All that it is possible to do is to define a higher probability (an edge). I have NEVER seen a system that can GUARANTEE 4-from-10 ... unless you have one for sale vis a vis: "Come back and see me when ..."

Using a 1:3 risk:reward is a useless money-management system - as ethereal as your other claims. Unless you actually KNOW your probability and outcome, it is not possible to assign a risk:reward to any trade. Oh yes, you can do it ... but the runs of losses will take it all away.

Regarding LAGGING indicators ... you seem to have an opinion that these are useless. I would agree that they are less-than-useful in time-frames less than 1 hour, but after that they come into their own. There is nothing wrong with lagging indicators - successful traders DO use them.

You ask: "What good is that?" now YOU are showing some inexperience dude! Lagging and/or forward/predictive indicators each have their place - it depends on the strategy used.

Only an arrogant person would dismiss the strategy used by others as inferior. This is just NOT the case - you are misleading people here Chucknorris.

Name-dropping shows your insecurity Chucknorris -

"Not the ones i know. but then again you will not know Ed Ponsi, Jerry Furst, Rob Booker, Boris Schlossberg, Kathy Lien, Tony Just. I suspect your knowledge is limited to people on this forum."

The only person in the group I have had dealings with is Rob Booker - The others I disregard, having read their ezines ad nauseum - largely promoting scalping rubbish - re-hashed to death. The kind of stuff I would look at if I wanted to screen-gaze all day. If you are truly a successful trader Chucknorris, you would have long ago evolved into a position trader with a real life.

I need to check my trades only every couple of days, though I do look in the mornings and again in the evenings - I don't need to, and in fact doing so can tempt traders to make irrational decisions.

Your closing statement in response to my rebuttal says it all:

"Anyway enjoy your trading. But remember what i told you. Soon you will get so frustrated with trading that you will look me up again and ask me for advice. Because there are 3 things that all succesful traders have in common. And those are the 3 things i mentioned"

A case of: "If you won't play with me I'll take my marbles and go somewhere else ... you'll be sorry ... you'll be back..."

I won't have to look you up Chucknorris - I'll just look for a huge ego ... you'll be right there on the other end of it.

In the interests of maintaining the goodwill of this Babypips forum, I will desist from further comment Chucknorris - whatever barbs you choose to use to goad further comment.

If you want to win this comp - easy ... you win!

But I will be looking for your eBook when it comes out - which I expect is what you are really priming us for.

$49.95 ... ?

Good luck with your trading. You might wanna check out FX Street. They have some very good webinars that you will enjoy. Then you can see how we pros trade. A hour on there will teach you more about forex than 12 months on any forum where "amateurs teach amateurs to trade like amateurs".

[andyk]

Ingot

I have always aspired to trade longer term. Can you offer any pointers to the system(s) you use to position trade ? I have tried the fozzy (8&8) system but haven't seemed to get it to work for me.

I'd also be interested in your take on money management with position trading. Since the stock answer for risk per trade is 1-2% of account, this is fine if you are trading the smaller timeframes, getting a few trades per day/week but if you hold positions for several days/weeks, and only trade a few pairs the signals will be few and far between. Would your 250 pip ('9/11') stop be more than 2% of account on the basis that it is less likely to get hit than a short term traders stop and each of your trades needs to be potentially worth more than say 2% to be worthwhile over the timescale.

thanks for the input

Andy

[Ingot54]

Hi Andy

Will try to answer on the thread tomorrow, with limitations of course.

But if you email me at ingot54@gmail.com I am happy to give you the link to the forum where this is set out fairly fully. I notice you do not receive private emails, so this is a good solution.

Meanwhile check back in about 16 hours ... I will have had my snooze by then, and posted a response!

With best wishes

Ingot

[tonymand]

Originally Posted by ChuckNorris

Good luck with your trading. You might wanna check out FX Street. They have some very good webinars that you will enjoy. Then you can see how we pros trade. .

As a matter of fact pros have their own boards not open to the rest of us. Its extremely rare to find any of them inhabiting the open, and therefore by nature, amateur places for obvious reasons

[mastergunner99]

Originally Posted by ChuckNorris

Why go short on say usd/chf is you went short on eur/usd because those two currencies have inverse correlation?

I'm not hedging myself here. You can't create your own scenario, then toss it on me and say that's what I'm doing wrong.

It's funny that you even mention that because currently, I'm actually long usd/chf and short eur/usd. As it stands I'm currently 170+ pips ahead between the two. Looks to me that I'm making the most of that inverse correlation with much thanks to that lagging ineffective PSAR indicator. *rolls eyes*

Your flaw is your limited mindset and failure to effectively communicate.

[n_aftab]

Everybody starts somewhere - pros are not just born.

Ive been following this thread for the last week, and have to say well done to the people that have contributed to it.