Parabolic SAR - that's all!

[chirules54]

You are right about the new york time thing, I suppose the only thing it won't matter with is with stocks obviously because the market is only during the day. That's one thing I worry about with me being on the west coast of the U.S. because my daily candle closes at 8pm local, but so far the results have been ok, I am interested to see your results though. So you say gci uses new york time, does that mean a new daily candle appears at midnight then?

edit: I just realized that 8pm local for me is 11pm or midnight in new york depending on whether or not daylight savings time is in effect here so maybe it isn't bad after all.

[dpaterso]

Hi,

Yes: GCI is 'bang on' New York time i.e. 12:00am on the platform is 12:00am New York time. How far behind or ahead are you (I could look it up myself but I never know if there is daylight savings involved or not)!!! Oh, and on that subject of daylight savings, GCI takes this into account i.e. they also adjust for daylight savings so, like I say, they are 'bang on' New York time.

I would go so far as to say this: if there is an hour or two difference then I don't THINK it's a problem i.e. there would not be a lot of difference between a broker in Bulgaria (like Delta for example) and another one in the UK (like Alpari for example) i.e. I have checked and the difference in bars is negligable BUT when you're talking a six hour (and more) difference between brokers then you start to see different 'things' not to mention the fact that I (as you know) are of the opinion that whatever is happening in New York at a given moment in time is being watched more closely and by 'more money' than anywhere else and I STILL think that most of the 'big trading decisions' will be based on what the institutional 'players' are seeing 'in the New York minute'!!! I'm 'dying' to prove it (if not to anyone else but myself)!!! 'People' can 'knock' the US all they want but it is, and no matter how much people may wish it was not, the 'Financial Capital Of The World'!!! (Now I'm really hoping that someone from Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan Chase, Lehman Brothers, or Merryl Lynch, reads my thread and offers me a job on Wall Street i.e. I'd move to the US NO QUESTION to be able to work on Wall Street failing which I have promised myself that before I am 'six feet under' or 'ashes' I want to go and see the statue of the 'bull' outside the NYSE and, who knows, get to see first hand, 'the opening bell', and also travel to see the NYMEX, CBOT, etc. etc. etc. Did I mention before that I love everything about this business)!!! Put it this way: I could be worth a 'gazillion' dollars to them i.e. all they have to do is ask me what to trade and in what direction and then go and place a market order for a billion dollars in the opposite direction!!! 'Slam dunk'!!! If that 'rogue' trader at SOCGEN had just called me and done the same thing he'd be fine today!!! (Obviously commission would become due and payable)!!!

Edit:

Ooops!!! 'Overtyping' each other again i.e. I only saw YOUR edit after I posted the above message. Anyway, suffice to say, you 'read my mind' i.e. one hour should not make any difference at all I don't think.

[chirules54]

Yeah, it's kind of funny that it took me this long to realize that my broker, oanda, is only an hour off of new york time, and during daylight savings time it will be exactly right. Well, that's one less thing to worry about I had another question about your trading thus far: have you/do you trade one instrument with two different systems at the same time? The reason I am asking is because it seems like the TBP and volality systems possibly could be used with each other at the same time, because the TBP is more of a "day to day" smaller target system where with the volatility system you get far fewer trades and they are held much longer, or so it seems. Even though you will get opposite direction trades a lot it seems to me that the nature of the TBP system will let you get the smaller "bites" on the daily movement of the pair while the volatility system follows the longer term trend. What do you think? It might be worth looking at. Anyway, I need to get to bed, I had a long day at school..

P.S. I too have to experience the NYSE sometime as well. Seeing the bull in person, and the chaos that goes on during trading time, wow. Hopefully if things go that way I'm planning I'll be working near there sometime And don't get me started on that trader... hahaha. I wonder what the real story was, because "a junior trader lost us millions of dollars" smells a little bad to me..

[dpaterso]

Who knows??? I've heard 'conspiracy theories' that maybe the bank was overexposed to subprime losses and Mr 'Rogue Trader' served as a 'cover up'. The thing that I don't get about that WHOLE 'debacle' is that from working and monitoring stocks you can 'bet your sweet ar*e' they at SOME point, no matter how long it takes, they WILL return to a place they've been before (OK - within reason of course) so why close the positions and realise the loss that he made i.e. either hold on to them OR get some 'fancy pants' trader to 'pump up' the trades and negate the losses over time. Hell: I'm sure that with a couple of billion EUR even I'd 'get it right'!!! Admittedly I'm not quite sure just HOW things 'went down' but I do remember hearing the phrase 'stock index futures' on CNN or Bloomberg but, maybe, I'm just 'oversimplifying' the thing.

I'll be honest with you (about the Volatility System):

I don't, as yet, have the 'bal*s' (or the capital for that matter) to trade it. The fact that the SAR can move up and down depnding on volatility scares me i.e. if you have a very sudden 'spike' in volatility good and well but what if there is only a very slight increase in volatility over a period i.e. just not enough for the system to 'notice'??? Remember that in order for the system to work you're trading with no stops and you're relying on the fact that at some point in the future the price is going to close contrary to the SAR. It's the 'some point in the future without a stop loss' idea that worries me. If you've got LOADS of capital then it's a 'no brainer' i.e. I reckon that system will nett you some serious 'buckaroos' over an extended period of time but you have to be able to hold on for that extended period of time without being margin called. I suppose the obvious answer would be to try it out on a shorter timeframe and see what happens. Me: I'm just 'swinging' now!!!

Oh, and by the way, if you DO get a job on Wall Street 'don't forget to remember me'!!!

[chirules54]

Dale, when you used the TBP system did you have positions open on all of those pairs you mentioned above at the same time? I have open trades on 9 different pairs, and two of the ones you listed above had the "conflicting" signal where the MF and TBP don't agree so I stayed out on those two. I wish there was a faster way to place all the trades because by the time I've clicked "buy" or "sell" on all the orders the price will change, and it always seems to go in the wrong direction.. even though it is only a pip or two usually it could add up.

[dpaterso]

Hello,

I just took trades as and when indicated i.e. if there was a 'conflict' I did not bother about it (a 'conflict' between the pairs that is NOT a 'conflict' between the MF and the TBP and the current price).

I'm sure I don't have to tell you this but remember that just because there is a conflicting signal it does not necessarily mean that it's a problem or that the system is wrong because 'TWO CURRENCIES DO A PAIR MAKE'.

What I'm trying to say is that just because you have a signal to go long EUR/USD and another signal to go short EUR/JPY does not mean that the system is giving you false information i.e. of course what happens to the value of the EUR in this instance will affect the market price of these two pairs BUT the value of the USD and the JPY will also, obviously, affect the market price of the two pairs, and the outcome of the trade.

As far as conflicts between the TBP and the MF I assume you're talking about the situation where the MF is giving you a signal to go long (or short) but the opening price is below the calculated TBP (if getting a signal to go long) or the opening price is above the calculated TBP (if getting a signal to go short)??? I have always 'stayed out' in this situation. Having said that: you could also go contrary to the MF as indicated by the book i.e. if you can imagine that you are already in a trade and the MF is telling you to go long (for example) but the price has closed below the TBP for the day then you could go short which would be contrary to the MF but consistent with the TBP. Make sense??? In other words you're 'acting' as if you were already in a trade which has gone 'sour' and now the TBP is giving you a signal not the MF. From what I gather it's the TBP that is a 'key value' not the MF so much although the MF is what gives you your initial entry if you've hit the TP target or been stopped out.

Actually: you can tell me this I'm sure: can a person create 'custom indicators' with Oanda (that's where your acccount is is it not)? If so then maybe I should start looking at 'coding' this stuff into Oanda as well. It'd be great if I had all of the systems 'coded' into the more popular platforms like MT4, Oanda, etc. Obviously I have no problem timewise with placing the orders at Delta because I have the entries right in front of me at any given time so it's really quick to just place the orders. The only way I can think of solving your order entry issue at the moment is to suggest that you open an account at Delta (through ME of course) at least until I have finished doing the GCI 'coding' anyway.

Oh, and by the way, I have also completed the 'coding' of the CSI into my Delta platform and I must tell you that the results are VERY interesting to say the least!!! I have quite a few open positions (Swing Index System) and some of them are doing great while others are doing 'not so great' and the interesting thing is that the ones that are doing great have a high CSI value and the ones that are doing 'not so great' have a very low CSI value. I found this to be very interesting indeed and, strangely enough, if the CSI value is low it appears to be a very clear indication as to whether or not the instrument is trading in a range or is trending. I've done it in such a way that it gives you a graph of the CSI (much like a moving average indicator) and it's also very interesting to see where the CSI goes higher and where it goes lower over a period. I'm now having 'fun' comparing the CSI values of all the indices and so far it looks great i.e. gives some surprising results as to what you should be trading at any given time and what is 'dead in the water' and really just a waste of time and capital!!!

[chirules54]

I can't make custom indicators with oanda, their trading software is somewhat primitive, although their spreads are very good. Wow, that's great that you have coded the CSI, and it seems like you are getting some pretty good information from it as well. I may have to open an account with delta, can you trade commodities and stocks with them as well? I was messing around on my GCI demo earlier and I came across a problem that is going to result in me asking a really stupid question... how do you enter a trade "on the close" when you can only trade the stocks and most of the commodities during the limited hours, the time that the market is open? The reason I ask this is because with the TBP system among others, you have to wait until the close to enter a position, but how are you supposed to do this if the market closes and you can't make the trade?

[dpaterso]

Hello,

At Delta you can trade the following:

Forex (of course, 44 pairs, including a whole 'bunch' of 'exotic' currencies.
Securities in the USA, UK, Romania, Netherlands, France, Germany, and Belguim.
Crude Oil in the USA and UK.
Metals (Gold and Silver)
Indices in the USA, UK, and EU.

Unfortuanately they do not offer commodities but now that you ask I'm going to contact them to see why not i.e. that would be 'first prize' (for me anyway).

As far as placing an order 'on the close' is concerned:

Not a stupid question at all i.e. I don't understand it either. What I have 'resorted' to doing is placing an order a minute or two or three before the close if I need to. I am NOT sure, however, if this is the same thing i.e. it goes with my question that I asked some pages back about 'pre-market' trading as well i.e. what is this 'pre-market trading' that I watch on Bloomberg every day??? How is it possible to trade before the open???

I was hoping that one or two of the 'gurus' would 'chime in' on this one but for some or the other reason it seems as if we're being ignored on this thread of late!!!

By the way: I do know in the book that he says that he has had better results placing an order 'on the close' but he also goes on to say that it's personal preference as well i.e. only place an order five minutes after the open. I prefer this for two reasons i.e. you're not paying the overnight interest or swap AND there is nothing worse than having an overnight position and watching the futures trade in the opposite direction overnight!!!

[dpaterso]

Hey, check this out:

It's 'funky' man:

Just for interest sake (and for the sake of 'testing' the / my / Wilder's 'Commodity Selection Index' or 'CSI') I compared these pairs (CSI is shown in brackets):

EUR/GBP (0.0134)
USD/CHF (0.0127)
GBP/USD (0.0095)
EUR/USD (0.0080)
EUR/CHF (0.0045)

According to the CSI they should be traded in the order in which I listed them.

According to the CSI trading EUR/GBP is a 'better deal' than trading EUR/CHF AT THE MOMENT i.e. the CSI can change on a daily basis.

What surprised me is that AT THE MOMENT trading USD/CHF is a 'better deal' than GBP/USD according to the CSI.

More:

XAU/USD (213.46) (Gold)
XAG/USD (0.27) (Silver)

Gold is the 'obvious one'!!!

And still more:

Dow (346)
Nasdaq (221)
S&P (141)

Obviously if you had to 'choose' then the Dow, at the moment, is the 'better deal' of the three EVEN ALTHOUGH the margin requirement for the Dow is MUCH more than that of the S&P.

Now while all of this may be very exciting I'm wondering if it's possible to 'rate' the CSI on the same scale for ALL of the above? I don't think that you can simply say that 'Oh well, Gold is 'tops'' for the simple reason that I don't think you're comparing 'like for like'. The CSI was calculated on the 'minimums' i.e. forex per lot size of 1000, metals per 1 lot, and the indices per 1 contract. Then again, does it actually make a difference??? In other words: the CSI value would be the same whether you based the calculation on 1 lot or 1000 lots. The only problem in the comparison I think is the number of decimal places (and this is one of the 'issues' that I had to sort out with the Swing Index System) i.e. to compare the Dow to EUR/GBP I think it would have to look like this:

EUR/GBP (0.0134)
Dow (0.0346)

OR

EUR/GBP (134)
Dow (346)

which together with Gold would then be as follows:

EUR/GBP (0.0134)
Dow (0.0346)
Gold (2.1346)

OR

EUR/GBP (134)
Dow (346)
Gold (21346)

No matter which wasy to 'slice it' or calculate it Gold seems to 'come out tops' at the moment.

Anybody interested in this type of thing please feel free to comment!!! Don't hold back. Please. Thank you.

[dpaterso]

Following on (it get's even MORE interesting, for me anyway):

DAX (Frankfurt) (464)
CAC40 (Paris) (439)
FTSE 100 (London) (420)
Dow (346)
Nasdaq (221)
S&P (141)
AEX (Amsterdam) (150)

Guess which of them you should be trading at the moment?

I can tell you this much from past experience:

I have traded the AEX in the past and it's a 'dog' i.e. 'nothing happens' ALL DAY.

I have also traded the DAX in the past and it single handedly assisted me in the 'obliteration' of at least two live accounts!!! Aside from my 'less than stirling' trades at least I now know that there was a 'mitigating factor'!!!

Edit:

By the way: I hope the markets were 'kind' to you today. They've been VERY kind to me and the SI System this week so far!!!