Hello Brendon, it is 'I on the midnight shift here'!!!
I thought you said that you don't think that you can trade?????? I think that your insights and comments on the fundamentals of the ZAR and your thoughts on the trade are excellent!!! (OK, well, I'm not sure just how much that means coming from me as I think by now you are well aware of my 'fundamental analysis skills').
OK, well, where the ZAR is concerned I do agree with you i.e. it's been a very long while since it's been at this level. On the other hand I am experiencing first hand, for the first time, WHY South Africa is deemed to be an 'emerging market'. I mean, let's face it', of all the things that I never in a million years expected to happen to us, was that we'd run out of power for crying out loud (I did some IT work for Eskom 'eons' ago and at that stage all our power stations were running and I went to quite a few of them back then and seeing and remembering this mammoth infrastructure of back then it's hard to imagine that we have a power crisis now). My point is this: even I am wondering what 'the next surprise' in going to be!!!
Although I may agree with you on the ZAR I don't have the 'balls' nor the capital to think of taking a trade like that. One of the 'oustanding features' of trading the ZAR is the fact that it's a very good 'payer' (is the term I always use). ???/ZAR only has to move just a few pips (after covering the humungous spread of course) for you to make some 'buku bucks' but if the trade goes against you it can wipe you out on a grand scale. Someone in my household, against everything I told them, decided to go long EUR/ZAR (this in spite of the fact that I told them that the Swing Index System had not given a signal yet) at the end of last week. Not only was one position taken but three (to add insult to injury) and although they were mini lots and the total margin requirement was something around $24 USD this person had lost nearly $70 two days later and there was only one red candle in the series so what I'm saying is that, in effect, one 'bad day' nearly killed the account now can you imagine investing or trading something like $5 000 USD and being wrong??? Nope, not for me, not for this, boy, not anymore!!! If, however, I get a 'swing' signal then there would be no hesitation on my part to take the trade. If I'm wrong I'm not going to wipe my account out and if I'm right then I'll make some nice profit. One other thing you need to consider (just bear it in mind if you have not already done so) is the 'cost of carry' i.e. just make sure that if you're thinking 'long term' that you're getting PAID interest and that you're not PAYING interest. On ???/ZAR positions I would imagine that the rate is quite high so just be careful. I have a few positions on Soybeans that I'm holding on to right now and they're doing VERY nicely but it kills me to see the interest that I'm getting charged for holding those positions every night!!!
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not enough time in this world. Been live since December doing hedge plays and very careful moneymanagement. Lost some despite all that. Great learning experience. demo accounts dont teach the emotions that go into trading..not even close! As a Capey(as in "cape town" for all the un-initiated...), is there a way i cant get your book by doing a non ebay thingie? i guess there is a thread somewhere on this but i cant read them all to check...
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