Parabolic SAR - that's all!

[dpaterso]

Good Morning!

I have just gone through all the pairs again and, as suspected, still no valid Parabolic SAR entry points. We just have to wait that's all.

Once again though, I find myself wanting to use some very bad 'expletives' because I did not let all the trades from August run their Parabolic SAR 'course'. For the record: not any single one of the positions that I had open last week and the week before (some even from the week before that) have been stopped out or reached a stop and reverse point and, for the most part, they have all continued on to produce even bigger profits. Those that have not continued on to produce even bigger profits are, for the most part, sitting at break even right now.

How's this for an idea: once I have positions open on each and every single pair this time round, and have set either my stop loss or stop and reverse points, I contact my broker and tell them to change my login password and not tell me what it is until each and every position has been stopped out i.e. there are no more open positions. The only thing I can then do is monitor the positions on a demo account. That way I CAN'T 'bail out' early! Actually that would not work though because then I could not move my stop loss or stop and reverse points every day. Now that's a great idea i.e. letting / getting your trading platform to automatically move your stop loss or stop and reverse points every day (I'm sure this could be done with Metatrader 4 but, unfortuantely for me, I don't think that I could do this with Delta).

The more I read and re-read the above paragraph the better it sounds you know!

I must also just tell you that in my absolute boredom yesterday I experimented with adding one or two other indicators to the charts to see if it was possible to get 'surer' or more 'correct' Parabolic SAR entries i.e. check for volatility, check for trends, check pivot points, check fibo levels, etc. etc. etc. but I still don't see how you can beat using this indicator on its own. Too many times the information given by the other indicator(s) appears to be in direct conflict with the information being given by Parabolic SAR and too many times Parabolic SAR has been 'on the mark' and the other indicators have either been wrong or would have kept you from entering (what are currently extremely profitable) trades in the first place.

Anyway - have a good 'trading' day. At least I know (hope) there will be some movement on the Indices today when the NYSE opens so that will put the 'hop, skip, and jump' back into my 'step'!!!

Edit (later this morning):

OK- I cracked! I took one 'teeny weeny' short position on EUR/SEK not for any good reason (well maybe because it has not been stopped out or reached a stop and reverse point since last week or the week before and if it does not get stopped out or reach a stop and reverse point then I got it at a better price than I did last week or the week before and it will hopefully drop like a stone now but if it doesn't the Parabolic SAR stop and reverse point is very close to the price so no big loss). Who am I kidding? I just HAD to have one little open position!

Regards,

Dale.

[cgrey]

Hi Dale -

I've been silently lurking here for a while now, and have recently started to follow what you're doing to the letter in a demo account. But, I have one question, because I'm either not fully understanding it, or I *think* I'm seeing conflicting information...

You've mentioned that you're setting stop/reverse points at the value of the PSAR dot. However, you've also mentioned that one should never close and reverse until the close of a candle. All along, I though your "stop and reverse" points, therefore, were just "mental", and you'd actually act on them when the candle closes. But, reading your latest post earlier about "resisting temptation" by having your broker change your password (funny...), you mentioned you wouldn't be able to change your stop/reverse points that way. That got me to thinking maybe they *are* "live", and therefore I'm back to the question about whether I should set a stop loss with a corresponding entry in the other direction to happen automatically at the PARSAR value, and if so, doesn't that contradict the "wait for the candle to close" theory?

Thanks,

-C

[Ingot54]

Hi Dale

As usual excellent work, and great ideas and contributions from others too.

I mentioned earlier that I have been keenly followingn the ideas initiated by you in theis thread, and I can tell you I am now losing sleep - in a good way - because of it.

I am becoming excited too, because you have not only proven that PSAR works, but your discipline and seems to be improving - thanks for your transparency there too.

Some of my "sleepless moments" are spent wondering how to extract profits in a mechanical way that fits hand-in-glove with your "PSAR-That's All" System.

If we stay with only PSAR, then it may be possible to exact an earlier exit at better profits, by looking at PSAR in a slightly shorter time frame.

Some charting packages do have the function that allows 8 hourly charts. But I suspect this may be too far removed from the daily PSAR, and if anyone knows of a demo package that has 12hr or 18hr charting, please let us know.
This might be getting very near to ideal for the purpose of selecting opportune exit for this system.

Note that we are still using "PSAR - That's All" but varying one component for the sake of potential efficiency. We won't know until we are able to experiment with it. I do know that whenI was using a certain indicator in the 4 hr charts, I was able to get an earlier exit nailed by switching to the hourly view to assess trend change, then switch back to the 4 hr to see what the candle looked like, and make a judgerment.

But it was getting away from the mechanical strategy at that point.

What we need to see is the shorter timeframe PSAR working BETTER than the exit from the one timeframe.

How do you feel about such an approach?

I did have other thoughts on exit, but perhaps best not to introduce them here, as it does not involve PSAR, and would wreck the thread and the idea. Plenty of time to experiment with other exits later.

But I will ask: What do you think about adding a second indicator for exits?

Sorry I have not contributed more, but night shift chops me around too much, and I have even neglected my own demo trades this week - have no idea what is happening to my open position with GBPCHF.

Work is th' curse of th' tradin' man!

[droesparky]

I think any thing you use to get you out with profit is great. just remember you will either need a re entry rule or sit tight and wait for next psar signal.

there is a way with mt4 to view live 12 hour charts. Weird Ingot Iwas just checking a 12 hr psar.
the period converter indicator will make about any setting you want
Here is how I do it.
Open a new 4 hr chart and run the period indicator on it.
when you run the indicator make sure!
under the common tab that you check the box Allow DLL imports
Under the inputs tab ther is a varable called period multiplier for 4 hr to 12 hr you would change that to 3.
then click ok, and it creats a 12 format for mt4, but it will not show up like the other TFs.

Do not alter the 4hr chart you used to make the 12 hr TF with. If you do you will have to start all over. Because the 12 will still be there but will not update.

Next go to file, open offline, and find the TF you just created. double click on it and your chart will open as offline but will update tick by tick. (as long as you dont mess with the original 4hr chart).

You can use any indicators or templates on the offline chart just like any other chart. Just dont mess with the 4hr chart at all.

Happy Charting

[jguy3348]

Depaterso

I too have been lurking and you are doing a great job! Read the Turtles book..It has alot to offer..it might help your psychy in letting the "profits run". It is a highlight for winning with a trend system. Also, adding to your position is very important. It also talks to a lesser extent on reentering a position. The "Turtles" did alot of sitting around waiting. The book will help!!

I use a Daily TF "break out" approach and have not entered a trade in two weeks and it doesn't look good any time soon (Ranging Market). If you ID your PSar approach as a TREND set up then you have to get over the rush of 5-30-1hr interday approach and a whole different psych applies. For instance we have to wait for trades to come to us! Not much has been discussed about a trend approach!

I am going to demo your PSar approach trying to find a fit to my style which is clearly different than yours. If I find anything I will share.

[dpaterso]

Good Evening Everyone!

Sorry folks - I was outside making a fire for a 'braai' or 'barbeque'. There is nothing quite like a warm late afternoon / early evening spring / summer night here in South Africa. If you people make enough out of Parabolic SAR come and visit my country - I'll give you the 'grand tour' and subject you to the worst 'hangovers' known to man (we just have to avoid the lions and elephants in the traffic on the way back from the airport but that's nothing to be scared of as I'm used to it and I'll be your driver anyway). You know that's a joke!!! Right??? The part about the lions and elephants??? Just a joke (I'll have our Department of Tourism knocking on my door if I don't make it clear that the part about the lions and the elephants WAS A JOKE)!!!

Oh - man - now we are all really 'getting our teeth' into this - it's fantastic - thanks for all the great posts and info.

cgrey:

Sorry - I am 'guilty as charged' of posting conflicting statements about stop losses and / or stop and reverse points. Put it this way - I'm not sure myself to be honest. I know how it's 'supposed' to work but sometimes I suppose I 'take a chance' or make a 'judgement call' (which ironically is one of the reasons that I like this indicator so much i.e. I don't want to have to make nor be able to make 'judgement calls' because my 'judgement' ain't that great)!

Put it this way: the way I figure it is 'supposed' to be is that you only stop and reverse when you get a Parabolic SAR dot indicating a reversal i.e. in the opposite direction when the candle has closed NOT when the current Parabolic SAR dot has been hit i.e. not immediately when Parabolic SAR is penetrated. The reason I say this is because if I think about it logically - when Parabolic SAR was 'invented' (for want of a better word) a trader would only have known at the close of the day (candle) that Parabolic SAR had been pentrated during the day i.e. Parabolic SAR was only calculated and plotted after market close in those days. Make sense? In other words it is only by virtue of the fact we now have online systems etc. etc. that we can actually see Parabolic SAR being penetrated in real time. Now whether or not, because of the technology available to us today, this 'rule' still applies - I don't have the answer. I do know that I have (sometimes) stopped and reversed immediately when Parabolic SAR has been penetrated and (sometimes) been 'lucky' and (sometimes) not so 'lucky'. I am really starting to be of the opinion that the best way to go is to not trade with stops at all i.e. you only stop / stop and reverse when you get a Parabolic SAR signal (dot) indicating a reversal (the next day or on the close of the current candle) and not when Parabolic SAR is penetrated. I know this 'flies in the face' of all you've ever been taught or learned (as far as stops and / or stop losses are concerned) but with this indicator I have, more often than not, proved to myself that (even on the daily charts / time frame) it is possible to get 'whipsawed' out (the 'Parabolic whoops') and if you have a stop loss set the loss is immediately realised or - even worse - you stop and reverse - and then the price starts going back in the direction it was going in the first place. In this scenario you have lost twice - once when you initially stopped and reversed and again when the price retraced AND you HAVE to be on hand to enter a new stop loss value or stop and reverse value on the new position otherwise your new position would just get 'dragged' into a loss in this scenario and you may only 'catch it' when it's too late. As a matter of fact - to demonstrate - this has happened to me twice, for example, on EUR/SEK in the past couple of weeks and has happened again today on EUR/SEK (my one lonely little position). In other words - had I been trading with stop losses or stop and reverse points set I would have been 'whipsawed' out earlier today and instead of showing a (currently) $149.31 profit ('whoopee') I would have written off an (albeit small) amount. Again - in this scenario - had I set stop and reverse points not only would I have lost on the intial stop and reverse but the new stop and reverse position would have been dragged down with the price as well (I would not have been around to see it happen so it would have been impossible to place a stop and reverse on the new stop and reverse position if you know what I mean).

Whew - I hope that all makes sense - it 'feels' a bit 'jumbled up' to me - but I know what I'm trying to say - so - if it does not make sense then please let me know and I'll try and explain in a more 'concise' or clearer way (I'll try anyway).

Ingot54:

That was a great post - and I thank you for commenting on the fact that my 'discipline' is improving. It does not feel like it to me but that is really encouraging to me and it will help me to become more 'disciplined'.

I'm glad that I'm not the only one getting 'sleepless nights' though!!!

I really like what you have to say and it makes TOTAL sense. What's really great about it is that we would still be sticking with 'pure' Parabolic SAR. Now why did I not think of this (OK - be fair - I did suggest that you enter on the daily but use the four hour for exits but the four hour is - like you say - too far 'removed' from the daily to be of any use). The good news is that I have just checked on my Delta platform and - guess what - I have 8, 12, or 16 hours available to me - never looked before. Like I said - I REALLY like this plan - I mean - it makes TOTAL and UTTER sense. That's the only drawback of this indicator i.e. the price HAS to reverse and you HAVE to lose some PIP's at the end in order for Parabolic SAR to indicate a reversal and a new position in the opposite direction - and - I think - you may just have solved that problem. Good on you. If you have 18 or 20 hour charts available to you then you are better off than me but even 16 hour charts will lessen the inevitable 'end loss' if you know what I mean. Really great. Thanks.

As far as second indicators for exits is concerned - I would not - especially after your 'five star' idea above!!!

droesparky:

Man - you really seem to be the MT4 'expert' - thanks for that info. I must say that I really do like MT4 - but if I have to make a choice between using MT4 and trading with Delta - then MT4 is out of the window for me I'm afraid. But I do know that your info will be extremely useful to others and not just those that subscribe to this thread. Thanks again.

jguy3348:

How did you 'slip' that post in - you must have posted while I was typing this 'mammoth' message.

Please do let us all know what you come up with. Yeh - letting profits run has ALWAYS been a problem for me I know - but - trying hard, REALLY hard, to change the error of my ways!!!

Why do you say that your approach is so different from mine - just for interest sake?

Above all - I'm just so glad that everbody is 'back to work' today - man - it was getting lonely here!!!

Oh - by the way - have you seen Gold today! Man oh man! What goes up must come down and I can tell you that when Parabolic SAR tells me that Gold has reversed I'm selling ZAR and AUD and NZD and buying GBP and EUR and USD with everything I have! And if it does in fact go to $700 an ounce or beyond (see - I told you earlier - if I say something is going to happen - then something does happen - just always in the opposite direction) - then things are even better!!!

Edit:

Just to give you an idea as to why I 'bang on' about my beloved ZAR: GBP is almost 1000 PIP's down against the ZAR JUST in the last three or four hours. Now even with a 100 PIP or so spread on the pair that's still a 900 PIP move on ONE SINGLE PAIR in three or four hours!!! And then there is still EUR/ZAR and USD/ZAR!!! Now when they reverse . . . !!!

Anyway - thanks again everybody. This feels good!!! We've got something good going here!!!

Regards,

Dale.

[droesparky]

Hey gang I was digging around earlier and found this indicator that puts a arrow on the chart when 3 TF have a parsar going the same directions.

Not sure that makes any difference.

[dpaterso]

Good Morning!

I just checked the pairs again - again - NOTHING - although - I can 'kick' myself for not taking the position on EUR/RON two days ago (actually - for some or the other reason I missed this trade - and I can't think why - I mean I just 'missed' it).

Anyway what can you do!!!

Ingot54:

Man I like your idea about using a slightly shorter time frame to exit early.

I would like your input on something though:

Are you saying that we use the daily chart to enter and then the moment we open a position we immediately switch to the next lower / shorter available time frame (which in my case would be the 16 hour time frame) and set / move your stop loss or stop and reverse points based on Parabolic SAR on this lower / shorter time frame - OR - do we stay with the daily time frame - setting / moving stop loss or stop and reverse points based on the daily time frame - AND ONLY when Parabolic SAR has 'locked in' our profits on the daily time frame i.e. accelerated to beyond our opening price do we change to the next lower / shorter available time frame and then start setting / moving stop loss or stop and reverse points until stopped out on this time frame? Actually - that's a point - you would NOT stop and reverse under any circumstances when you are using the next lower / shorter available time frame - you would only stop - correct? If you stopped and reversed based on Parabolic SAR on the lower / shorter time frame you would in effect be opening a postion too early / too soon (assuming of course your - let's call it 'primary' time frame - was the daily time frame).

What do you think?

Regards,

Dale.

[dpaterso]

Hey Ingot54,

I've been sitting having a look at your theory and I think it's great.

I think, though, that just by looking closely (on EUR/SEK anyway) that for this idea to be REALLY successful the time frame needs to be EVEN SHORTER and not JUST A LITTLE BIT SHORTER if that makes sense. In other words - there is not enough difference between the daily and the 16 hour (in my case) BUT there is a big difference between the daily and the 12 hour (in my case).

Actually - now that I think about it - while I'm typing this message - you have the right idea BUT there is a problem with it and I'll tell you why.

Remember that Parabolic SAR is calculated specific to the time frame so this is not going to have the desired effect.

But - like I said - I think you have the right idea - BUT - what we need to do is to somehow 'overlay' the Parabolic SAR from the daily time frame (or whatever your 'primary' time frame is) on the next lower time frame. Think about that statement for a while. Doing THAT is totally different from just using the Parabolic SAR for the lower time frame.

Am I making sense.

Another way of explaining is this:

I got a valid Parabolic SAR entry point last night on EUR/SEK to go long (daily charts). If I check where my initial stop loss is supposed to be on the daily time frame - let's say it should be at 9.3291 based on the value of Parabolic SAR on the daily time frame - BUT - if I 'flip' to the 16 hour time frame - and use those Parabolic SAR values - then my initial stop loss should theoretically be at 9.3261 if I based it on the current value of Parabolic SAR on the 16 hour time frame. In other words - the indicated value of my stop is LESS or LOWER on the 16 hour time frame than it is on the daily time frame (remember I'm long here) - and that's not what we are trying to accomplish i.e. it should be HIGHER on the shorter time frame in this case and not lower.

The only thing that I'm not sure about when making the above observation is whether or not Parabolic SAR will accelerate faster on the 16 hour time frame - in which case I'm talking nonsene above. To be honest - this pair is probably a very bad example because it is stuck in a range - so that could be why I'm getting the results I'm getting.

Actually - let me go and check this on another pair - and then I'll come back here.

By the way - I've been meaning to ask you - coming from Australia and all - what do you think of my thoughts on Gold and AUD/NZD/ZAR? The problem is that things are so good in Australia ANYWAY that I don't think a drop in the Gold price is going to make NEARLY as much on AUD/??? as I think it is. And that may even be true of the ZAR actually i.e. our interest rates are going through the roof and, as a matter of fact, I got an interesting email from Saxo Bank the other day - saying that if this trend continues - South Africa may very well become the 'darling of the carry trade' by the end of the year.

Edit - very important edit!!!

No - I'm talking absolute nonsense above. Sorry - you are 'bang on the mark'. EUR/SEK is a terrible example at the moment because it is range bound BUT if you use your strategy on a pair that is actually trending - what happens is that Parabolic SAR on the lower / shorter time frame (actually - is time frame two words or one?) starts accelerating much faster on the lower / shorter time frame so your stop / take profit moves slightly faster and thus would give you some extra PIP's when the reversal comes and Parabolic SAR signals a reverse.

Sorry - you are quite right.

I have left my initial thoughts posted (as above) i.e. not deleted them after I realised that you are actually quite right - just so that they are there as food for thought.

I think you've made a breakthrough my man - and - it's especially great because you are not introducing anything else to the 'mix' i.e. still 'pure' Parabolic SAR.

And yet another edit:

Man I like this idea - it's good. The only thing that I would say is that you stick with working on your 'primary' timeframe (I've decided - it's one word now) UNTIL you are 'in the green' or profitable AND Parabolic SAR has moved past your opening price therefore now is 'locking in' profits AND THEN switch to the lower / shorter timeframe to lock in profits otherwise you may increase your chances of being whipsawed out of a perfectly good 'primary' trade (in my case it would be the trade based on the daily timeframe).

OK - I'll step back now and wait for some input / thoughts on all of this.

And yet another edit:

By the way - I managed to 'scrounge' another position today - long on USD/RON.

Regards,

Dale.

[droesparky]

For those using MT4 here is a muti TF parsar.