Parabolic SAR - that's all!

[droesparky]

yes you pay over the weekend, the big day is wenesday thats a double day that makes up for the weekend, If your holding on wenesday at the close you get a double wammy.

Hey Dale Remember my little backtest on cable. It showed that you will have a lot more loosers then winners. In fact the best winners where last month when we had the gbp pairs trend down the half way back up. this system works good then but the rest of the time dont expect a lot from it.

In a ranging market it will loose most of the time.

we need a little help getting in early and out on time. Its nuts to hold it sar to sar, JMHO.

Also my guess is some pairs dont do well at all with it.

[dpaterso]

Hey Akram,

Yup - I'm afraid I did close it today (not too long ago as a matter of fact).

Actually - the reason that I closed it (or should I say that it got stopped out) is because I was 'experimenting' with the idea of using the (your) Alligator to lock in profits / negate losses etc. etc. In other words - I spent the whole day looking and if you see how quickly the 'lips' (the green line) respond to price changes AND how many PIP's you save by using the current value of the 'lips' as your stop loss it's quite a lot (and I can tell you that had I been 'testing' this 'strategy' earlier on today (yesterday) I would not have written off nearly as much as I did today). The problem of course - is - once again - if you 'mess' with Parabolic SAR - you get 'burned' (although - having said that - I got 'burned' this morning by following JUST Parabolic SAR). In other words - I got stopped out on this pair because I set my stop loss value to the value of the Alligator's lips - which was much too close to the price - and - had I 'stuck' with Parabolic SAR - this stop would NEVER have been hit (at least not so soon).

Like I said - I've just had a bad day (week) trading - so I 'locked' in profits by using the Alligator's 'lips' just so that I could close out all of these open positions and start afresh on Sunday again.

I wish you luck and I'm glad you're still in there and making profit. Just be careful though - the reason that it's going your way at the moment is because the GBP is dropping 'like a stone' against the USD tonight (and it has not run its 'Parabolic SAR course' yet i.e. GBP/USD should still have a day or two before it reverses according to Parabolic SAR - otherwise it's going to reverse and continue up) - and I don't know why - so - be careful - don't lose you profit.

Regards,

Dale.

[droesparky]

I show gbp/usd with a new sar pointing down starting tommorrows candle?

[dpaterso]

Hi droesparky, sorry - I only saw your message now.

I think you are right about things.

Tomorrow - I am going to sit down and do a list of what I percieve to be the major problems and then see how we can solve them.

'Right off the bat' though I can tell you that the BIGGEST problem is taking positions based on a 'valid' Parabolic SAR signal that turn against you almost immediately - at least that's was caused ME some 'grief' today. In other words - every position that I took was based on a 'valid' Parabolic SAR entry and yet - some of those positions (particularly GBP/NZD and GBP/CAD) cost me a small fortune today AND they pretty much turned against me RIGHT after opening them the other day. Like I say - this is a 'deal breaker' - how does one check that Parabolic SAR MAY be wrong? I've just had another look at ADX and I still don't see the benefit. I've even resorted to 'good 'ol MACD' to check WHY I lost on those trades - and - nothing. On those two positions that cost me so much today I had a 'valid' Parabolic SAR signal, MACD HAD crossed in the right direction, and even ADX would not have warned me against taking those positions - and this for me is the MAJOR problem!!! The rest i.e. early exits and stuff like that I think we already have some good ideas - it's just avoiding the trades described above that is the REAL problem (for me anyway).

Regards,

Dale.

[dpaterso]

Sorry again droesparky - we were 'overtyping' each other again.

On MT4 I have that signal too but at Delta not (and at my 'Indices' broker - I DO have the signal BUT I know for sure on that platform that the dot can dissappear just as easily as it appeared if the price retraces a little so I always wait on that platform for the candle or bar to close but this will only happen in another four hours time BUT if it is still there tomorrow I MIGHT take it BUT - like I say - according to my Delta platform - there is (should be) at least another day to go before I get the signal).

Regards,

Dale.

[Benjimang]

Hey Dale how's things?

I see you're scoping for a way to check if the market will swing against you straight away. I have a suggestion: RSI.

I trade with a system on here called the EMA Step. It's basically trading around a 5 period EMA. However, I always check my RSI's. I have two set in the one window. One is 5 period, the other 14 period. Essentially, when the 5 period goes up over 80, you're likely to see a small downside retracement soon. The opposite is true for going under 20. Witht he 14 period, if you see it nudge 80 or 20, you can bet it will retrace VERY soon, and with a fairly large movement too. I don't use it to confirm trades, or act as an indicator. I use it more as a warning when NOT to trade, or when to wait for a retracement before placing a trade.

-Benjimang

Edit: I just attached a pic to show you how I use it. The Yellow RSI clearly shows when NOT to enter the uptrend.

[dpaterso]

Hey Benjimang,

I was wondering why you had 'deserted' us and where you'd gone - now I know!!!

Thanks for the idea. I have looked at RSI as well (before) and I know that you are right.

My BIGGEST problem with RSI is ME!!! At one stage (previously) I thought of saying something like 'you ONLY take a position based on a Parabolic SAR entry signal IF AND ONLY IF RSI is above 80 or below 20'. This DOES work BUT the problem with it is that it was keeping me out of too many trades i.e. I would have to wait too long for BOTH of these indicators to 'concur' and - because of my 'need' to be in the market sort of 'scrapped' the idea. This kind of just 'boiled down' to being impatient and immature (and I'm 42 for crying out loud) i.e. it's really hard to hold yourself back and not take a position when you have received a Parabolic SAR entry signal because you know that (especially if you are trading off the daily charts) you could wait for days, even weeks, before you get another signal from Parabolic SAR.

Anyway - I'll give it another look.

RSI, by the way, is also one of J. Welles Wilder's 'pearls' and is detailed in the book. Again - there is SO much more to THIS indicator than 'meets the eye' (I refer to the book daily - especially when I have to go and 'speak' on the 'big white telephone' or 'go to the library'. I can tell you that there is nothing better than trying to 'optimize' your trading 'system' or 'method' or trying to study the inner workings of an indicator while you're having a good c**p)!!! (That's 'toilet humour' for those of you who did not get it)!!! (I don't know why I'm in such a good mood this morning BUT I am)!!!

I will tell you all one thing that has become BLATANTLY obvious: my 'shotgun approach' of taking a position on each and every single pair when you receive a Parabolic SAR entry signal (and then hoping for the best) is not going to work in the long run - AND - even if it does not result in losses over a long period of time because of the effective 'hedging' of all the pairs - it would be FAR better to keep the 'bad' positions out of the equation altogether.

I mean - one thing that I lost sight of or didn't think about until yesterday -was the fact that during that week or two or three last month (when I landed up with the $50K 'windfall' and yes - I now believe that's what it was) and took profit early - that was the NETT result of all of the positions - so - you can imagine what the total of JUST the profitable positions must have been (I never bothered to calculate it at the time). In addition to that - last month - I must have been of the 'right side' as it were for interest i.e. because of the direction that the pairs were going in - the daily interest or 'swap' or 'rollover' was in my favour BUT this month - I can only assume it's because last months positions are reversing thus putting me on the 'wrong' side of the daily interest calculation - I'm paying that interest back big time on my open positions.

In other words - my idea of a 'low maintenance' or 'no maintenance' system is NOT such a viable one. There REALLY IS no way to make money in trading without 'putting in the hours'. This 'system' or 'method' requires (almost) as much maintenance and input as any other 'fully fledged' 'trading system'. The irony of the whole thing is that I am spending MORE time on this 'low maintenance' or 'no maintenance' 'system' or 'method' than I have EVER spent on anything else!!! I'll say this though: I'm enjoying every minute of it and won't stop until we get our very OWN perfect system (by 'OWN' I mean everyone that has contributed to this thread).

OK - well - back to the drawing board!!!

By the way - I should not be 'beating up' on myself and you guys because of what happened yesterday i.e. because I closed those losing positions yesterday and took the losses - turns out that it was probably the best thing that I could have done i.e. most of those positions have not been stopped out YET BUT they are very close to actually being stopped out so the loss would have been FAR FAR greater so - I suppose - I should be happy i.e. it's one of those 'golden moments' where I can truly say 'wow - I'm glad I got out when I did' and not the usual 'f**k it - why did I get out so early - just look at what the profits would have been by now'!!!

Thanks everyone - let's keep going - we're NEARLY there (and Ingot54: you bet your 'a**e' we're going to have that beer mate)!!!

Regards,

Dale.

[Hypechic]

Originally Posted by dpaterso

Hello,
Jean:

I have attached a self-extracting WinZip file. Download it and run it (by double clicking on it - and don't worry - I guarantee it's virus free) and just accept all the default prompts. Then - when you're on a chart - 'Add/Remove overlay indicators', select the 'More' button, move right down the menu until you see the folder 'Native', click on the plus sign to the left of 'Native', and right at the bottom you will see an indicator called 'AMA(Bill Williams' Alligator MA's). Click on this and - hey presto - you now have an Alligator on your chart (well it's not a 'true' Alligator because it is not 'shifted' a couple of bars ahead because I don't know how to do this - yet - but it is nevertheless the same MA's as per Bill Williams books i.e. he does not say whether they should be simple, exponential, smoothed, etc. etc.). They (the MA's) that I used are just simple MA's - but I see that on Metatrader 4 the Alligator consists of 'smoothed' MA's - but from what I can see - there is no 'real' difference i.e. if you change the MA's from 'smoothed' to 'simple' on Metatrader 4 there is such a slight difference in there appearance that I can't see how it would matter.

ONLY EXTRACT THE FILE THAT I HAVE GIVEN YOU IF YOU HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO OR ADDED TO THE FORMULAS ON DELTA'S PLATFORM BECAUSE MY FILE WILL OVERWRITE ANYTHING THAT YOU HAVE ADDED OR CHANGED.

ALSO - YOU HAVE TO RENAME THE FILE FROM ALLIGATOR.ZIP TO ALLIGATOR.EXE IN ORDER TO RUN IT (you can't upload executable files to the forum).

If you HAVE added your own formulas or changed stuff there then I'll somehow have to give you instructions on how to create the thing yourself.

Regards,

Dale.

Thanks. I've tried to run the file and can't. It refuses to run even after I've renamed it. When I download, it goes straight into my zip folder/archive and so it has to extract from there. When it does that, I see about 7 different files and then I'm stumped. I know there's something wrong but I don't know what..

As for your current losses, I know how you feel but just hang in there. It'll pass. Besides you didn't think you could have great wins all the time did you? The bottom line is to eventually win way more than we lose so keep the faith. You've helped a great many of us and are still bringing more great people together. Who knows, this system could eventually be perfect or as close to it as possible.

[dpaterso]

Hey Joan (Hypechic),

Thanks for the kind words and encouragement.

Ok - well - if you can see the files - do you now how to extract them manually (I know WHY the .exe is not extracting by itself but if you can see the files then you might as well extract them manually)?

Put it this way - after you have clicked on the 'Extract' button on WinZip - where WinZip prompts you 'Extract to:' you must either select the folder or type in the full name (EXACTLY) as below:

C:\Program Files\Deltastock\DeltaTrading\Plugins

Your screen should look like the attached 'picture' (the folders might be different but make sure that the other stuff is exactly the same i.e. no 'ticks' and a 'dot' in 'All files/folders in archive') and then you just click on the 'Extract' button on the bottom right hand corner of the WinZip screen and, when prompted to 'Confirm file overwrite' by WinZip just click on the 'Yes to all' button.

Let me know if it's worked (and let me know that you can now use the 'Alligator').

Regards,

Dale.

[dpaterso]

Hey Akram,

I bet I know who is 'smiling all the way to the bank' right now!!!

GBP/CHF???

Regards,

Dale.