Parabolic SAR - that's all!

[dpaterso]

Yes Hypechic, I know you know!!! (Only kidding)!!!

Just some more on the subject of indicators and the different brokers:

You know - we ALL (and that includes me) - just take for granted that the indicators that are presented to us are indeed correctly calculated.

Well - I've just done a little 'excercise':

I have manually calculated the True Range (TR) and Average True Range (ATR) for GBP/USD (for a seven day period as required by one of the trading systems) and I can tell you that the manually calculated TR and ATR differ greatly from what is being displayed on two out of my three trading platforms. While the difference MAY not be enough to make a 'substantial' difference to the 'graphical representation' of ATR - if you are concerned with the ACTUAL values of ATR - then you have a problem for sure!!!

I'm going to investigate this further though - who knows - maybe the RSI calculations are 'out' as well - and - maybe - Stochastics as well - and this COULD impact on our 'new rules' e.g. RSI MAY be being calculated as - let's say 49 for example - on a particular trading platform - when it is IN FACT 57 for example - and this would make a difference - in our case - to taking a trade or not!!!

Let's say at worst case - on a certain platform - 'EVERYTHING' is just a 'little bit out' but not enough to make a REAL difference if you are only using a single indicator or indicator value - BUT - put all of those 'little bit out' things together - and you have an 'EVERYTHING' that is suddenly 'a lot out'!!!

Thoughts???

Regards,

Dale.

[dpaterso]

Akram,

I had a good 'chuckle' at the word 'wishlist' - I prefer to call it my 'watchlist' - but I think you're right - it REALLY IS more of a 'wishlist'!!!

And no - I do not have any open forex positions at the moment (at Delta anyway) although I did make a 'teeny bit' on GBP/USD this morning using 'that other system'.

And don't tell me that you are now also one of the 'I could not be bothered to read the thread' club members!!! I posted ALL of my 'wishlist' last night - take a look see - there are some 'nice' things coming I reckon - this week too!!!

By the way - just for interest sake - I am attaching the Gold chart for today (so far). Man - if I'm right - this is going to be a 'text book' trade (by 'text book' I mean it's going to prove all of our 'new rules' 100%)!!!

Take a look at where RSI and Stochastics are on the chart AS WELL AS where ADX (the blue line on the DMI) and ADXR (the pink line on the DMI) - and - of course - our 'beloved' Parabolic SAR!!!. Man - when that blue and pink line turn down - are WE going to see some action - not only on Gold - but on all the 'commdolls' as well!!! (The 'sad' thing of course is that it's going to make MY currency move down 'a peg or two' - which - on the other hand - is great - when I TP it's in USD - so - the more ZAR for me - Ingot54: you should be thinking about this as well IF you have a USD denominated account that is - if you have an AUD denominated account - you're 'f****d' - then I'LL be buying YOU a beer)!!!

By the way: my money's on Soybeans today!!!

Regards,

Dale.

[pip huntter]

Originally Posted by dpaterso

Akram,

I had a good 'chuckle' at the word 'wishlist' - I prefer to call it my 'watchlist' - but I think you're right - it REALLY IS more of a 'wishlist'!!!

And no - I do not have any open forex positions at the moment (at Delta anyway) although I did make a 'teeny bit' on GBP/USD this morning using 'that other system'.

And don't tell me that you are now also one of the 'I could not be bothered to read the thread' club members!!! I posted ALL of my 'wishlist' last night - take a look see - there are some 'nice' things coming I reckon - this week too!!!

By the way - just for interest sake - I am attaching the Gold chart for today (so far). Man - if I'm right - this is going to be a 'text book' trade (by 'text book' I mean it's going to prove all of our 'new rules' 100%)!!!

Take a look at where RSI and Stochastics are on the chart AS WELL AS where ADX (the blue line on the DMI) and ADXR (the pink line on the DMI) - and - of course - our 'beloved' Parabolic SAR!!!. Man - when that blue and pink line turn down - are WE going to see some action - not only on Gold - but on all the 'commdolls' as well!!! (The 'sad' thing of course is that it's going to make MY currency move down 'a peg or two' - which - on the other hand - is great - when I TP it's in USD - so - the more ZAR for me - Ingot54: you should be thinking about this as well IF you have a USD denominated account that is - if you have an AUD denominated account - you're 'f****d' - then I'LL be buying YOU a beer)!!!

By the way: my money's on Soybeans today!!!

Regards,

Dale.

Dale,

My broker doesn't offer oil do u have any charts for the oil is it going to be down soon? or the trend is up rgiht now? i wanna check the CDN it is going good with all the currency especially with the USD

Akram

[Ingot54]

Hi Dale and other enthusiasts-soon-to-be-wealthy! l:^))

I have sumarised your system Dale for easier reading (just my view) and to make it easier to print out. Hope you don't mind. I think this is an extraordinary thing you have accomplished here - not without pain either.

I think there is a bit more room for refinement eg limiting the signals to either RSI or Stochastics but not both. This would give you simpler charting set-ups (more screen 'real-estate' to view) and I do not think it would affect profitability much ... if at all.

Anyway, while it has not been declared 'finished' officially, there may still be time for me to muddy the waters (heh heh):

Dale’s Daily PSAR

Daily charts only.

When a PSAR entry signals to go short ONLY take the position WHEN:

RSI is above 70 (or has been within the preceding 1 to 3 bars) AND is still above 50.
Stochastics are above 80 (or have been recently within the preceding 1 to 3 bars) AND are still above 50.
MACD has crossed down.
Akram's 'Alligator' lines are NOT intertwined (or 'look' like they are changing direction). i.e. at very least the 'lips' (or green line) must have crossed the 'teeth' (or red line) and the 'jaw' (or blue line))
ADX is equal to or above 20 (and/or ADXR must also be above 20)

Assuming that an entry EVER meets ALL of the above criteria:

Once PSAR has 'locked in' profits on the daily TF, switch to the next shorter TF available and start tracking PSAR until stopped out. Do NOT stop and reverse at this point. The option remains to re-enter IF PSAR reverses again on this TF only if PSAR on the daily TF still has not reversed. i.e. position is not stopped out on the daily timeframe yet. NEVER stop and reverse i.e. wait for all of the above criteria to be met before taking another position.

When a PSAR entry signals to go long ONLY take the position WHEN:

RSI is below 30 (or has been within the preceding 1 to 3 bars) AND is still below 50.
Stochastics are below 20 (or have been within the preceding 1 to 3 bars) AND are still below 50.
MACD has crossed up
Akram's 'Alligator' lines are NOT intertwined (or 'look' like they are changing direction) i.e. at very least the 'lips' (or green line) must have crossed the 'teeth' (or red line) and the 'jaw' (or blue line))
ADX is equal to or above 20 (and/or ADXR must also be above 20)

Once again - assuming that an entry EVER meets ALL of the above criteria:

Once PSAR has 'locked in' profits on the daily TF, switch to the next shorter TF available and start tracking PSAR until stopped out. Do NOT stop and reverse at this point. The option remains to re-enter IF PSAR reverses again on this TF only if PSAR on the daily TF still has not reversed.
ie position is not stopped out on the daily timeframe yet. NEVER stop and reverse
ie wait for all of the above criteria to be met before taking another position.

Additional guidelines:

Don't base 'entry' on RSI and Stochastics - but base your 'non entry' on RSI and Stochastics. ie - If RSI and Stochastics are NOT at their limits then take the trade.
Put another way: - If RSI is above 70 and Stochastics are above 80, a PSAR entry signal to go long then that trade would be a disaster.
And vice versa: A PSAR entry signal to go short when RSI is below 30 and Stochastics are below 20 would be foolhardy.

As long as RSI is between 0 and 50 and Stochastics are between 0 and 50 - with both pointing up preferably - then take PSAR entry signal to go long - and if RSI is between 100 and 50 and Stochastics are between 100 and 50 - with both pointing down preferably - then take PSAR entry signal to go short. This would increase the number of 'valid' trades.


This will certainly limit the number of trades available - BUT - if all of the above criteria are met – it is almost 100% sure that the position is a 'winner'.


I did see your earlier comments ... yes we do have Captain Morgan here in the antipodes, but in limited supply - the locals keep drinking the stuff - we have been experiencing severe drought here, and we are saving the drinking water to wash in ... for as long as the rum lasts!

With best wishes

Ingot

[dpaterso]

Good evening (afternoon) everyone!!!

Nice work Ingot54 - thank's (and by the way - I don't know if you've just added it or if I just missed it before - but I really like your 'signature' or whatever you call it - you know - the line at the bottom of your messages - very 'apt')!!!

Akram:

You can find the various different Oil charts on Delta's demo under the CFD quotes (it - along with Gold - are not live 'yet' though - but Delta's quotes are 'spot on' when compared to 'live' Gold and Oil).

For what it's worth - WTI Crude (October 07 contract) is at $80.48 right now - but I can tell you that the Oil charts are looking EXACTLY like Gold right now - I'll attach one to this message.

Edit:

I've attached 'real live' Crude Oil as well (the 'blue' chart). I'd say it's still in an uptrend - wouldn't you?

By the way Akram - what is the CDN??? I don't have it!!!

I for one cannot WAIT for the Fed's interest rate decision / announcement - maybe THEN we can all get 'back to business'!!!

Regards,

Dale.

[pip huntter]

Originally Posted by dpaterso

Good evening (afternoon) everyone!!!

Nice work Ingot54 - thank's (and by the way - I don't know if you've just added it or if I just missed it before - but I really like your 'signature' or whatever you call it - you know - the line at the bottom of your messages - very 'apt')!!!

Akram:

You can find the various different Oil charts on Delta's demo under the CFD quotes (it - along with Gold - are not live 'yet' though - but Delta's quotes are 'spot on' when compared to 'live' Gold and Oil).

For what it's worth - WTI Crude (October 07 contract) is at $80.48 right now - but I can tell you that the Oil charts are looking EXACTLY like Gold right now - I'll attach one to this message.

Edit:

I've attached 'real live' Crude Oil as well (the 'blue' chart). I'd say it's still in an uptrend - wouldn't you?

By the way Akram - what is the CDN??? I don't have it!!!

I for one cannot WAIT for the Fed's interest rate decision / announcement - maybe THEN we can all get 'back to business'!!!

Regards,

Dale.

Dale so sorry i meant CAD not CDN!!! sorry for that.

AND thank u for the oil charts.yes it is still on uptreand that is why the CAD is very strong now..

Igot:

Thanks for making thing simple of us and i agree with all what u r saying.i think this will be perfect for our system.I will try it and tell what i have so far

Regards,

Akram

[Bocajunior]

Hello all,

I've just finished reading the whole thread which took me a few days to do, and it was quite a read. I may even go back and skim over it again. Everyone here has contributed a lot to this and I hope I can also. Great work all.

It seems that quite a few indicators have been added to the original pure parabolic SAR as losses were coming in the last couple of weeks. I will need some time to analyze and get my head round them before i coment more.

Over the last week I took the following pairs based on the Pure Parabolic SAR alone and although I was showing profit early on, they are totalling a slight loss now. But I am going to ride them all out and see how it goes:-

AUD/NZD - short
AUD/JPY - long
EUR/JPY - long
EUR/AUD - short
EUR/CHF - long
GBP/USD - short
NZD/USD - long
USD/CAD - short
XAG/USD - long

I am reasonably new to FOREX, 3 months only, and am testing a few systems/ theories on a demo account only. I hope I can help contribute to the excellent work done on this so far.

Thanks.

[dpaterso]

Hi Bocajunior,

Thanks for posting.

That's actually more of what we need here now i.e. some current positions and everyones results. I mean to say - my results have been anything BUT good since the beginning of the month (pretty 'poor' actually) but then - as you all know - I've 'bailed out' early and closed positions and basically messed my 'Parabolic SAR equilibrium' up - so me posting any results or anything like that at the moment is a pure waste of time not to mention the fact that it seems like the entire world is just 'hanging on' to the Fed rate decision later today (tonight here unfortuantely).

Yes - more indicators have been added - and - as Ingot54 said - and as I suspected - it sure does limit your number of trades if you wait for ALL of those indicators to be 'in synch' as it were.

Look - the idea of adding the other indicators is pretty much to keep you OUT of trades that will PROBABLY turn 'sour' as it were - not to confirm entry points (if that makes any sense at all).

Like Benjimang said - it's really to ensure that you are taking a position on a pair that is still in a tradeable range. As stated before - as an example - it makes absolutely no sense to take a position on a pair when Parabolic SAR is giving you an entry signal to go long when RSI and Stochastics are sitting at 100!!! Where DO you draw the line here? I mean - where is your cut off point? RSI < 50 or < 40 or < 30??? Stochastics < 50 or < 40 or < 30??? See what I mean???

Again - where do you draw the line??? I mean to say - I did NOT take a short position on GBP/USD as signalled by Parabolic SAR because all of our 'new rules' had not been 'satisfied' or 'met' and look what happened. I'm not saying it was a 'text book' trade BUT it sure looks like it would have made a decent (quick) profit (although on the other hand I do have a feeling that whatever profit COULD have been made in the last two or three days it's going to be pretty much reduced nothing and may even turn to a loss IF the the Fed cuts rates today and you are sticking 'doggedly' to 'pure' Parabolic SAR i.e. using Parabolic SAR for you stop our stop and reverse point).

I need some additional input from everyone by the way:

Since I have been looking more carefully at some of the indicators available to us and checking that the calculations of their values are indeed correct I may have come up with something else - very simple - but looks like it could be profitable. What I want to know is this: do we start another thread for any new 'findings' or 'ideas' that come to mind or do we just continue adding to this thread? Maybe rename this thread? I don't know that's why I'm asking for input here. The new 'findings' or 'ideas' that I'm talking about have nothing at all to do with Parabolic SAR i.e. Parabolic SAR was just the 'catalyst' and these new 'findings' or 'ideas' just came to me while I was checking stuff for us on THIS thread. On the other hand - I'm worried that we might start losing the 'momentum' of this thread i.e. we have come together here on this thread - almost as 'friends' as it were - and I'm just worried that we may lose 'momentum' here if we have other threads running. Not sure. YOUR input required!!!

Regards,

Dale.

[Bocajunior]

Dale,

Thanks for your response and I hear what you are saying about where do we draw the line on indicators and values etc, and I hope that's something we can work out. Maybe each trader may have to make slight differences to his own system depending upon his appetite for risk. I am still looking at MACD just now but bear with me on that.

On the GBP/USD position, yes I saw that most of the additional indicators were keeping us out of this trade, but at the time I took it I was in KISS mode and going on SAR alone. And on this position we have an interesting sitiuation as you say, as the Fed could cut rates and possibly turn this into a loss.

This is a dilema we all face as do we ride this out or are we happy to take profits gained. I was toying with some thoughts on that,, that if a certain amount of profits are realised, regardless of what SAR is saying, I may exit. This is something that i will have to work on. I think another poster commented that there was never a bad time to take profits.

In the meantime, any new ideas that are being worked on, I suggest to keep it on this thread just now (my opnion only) as it seems there is quite a following here with ideas a plenty. Maybe if we find the "Holy Grail", it can be moved to a new thread.

Cheers all

[dpaterso]

Hi,

I too have been looking at MACD (for the past couple of months actually 'off and on'). The 'strange' thing about MACD - that I have noticed anyway - is that is seems FANTASTIC at keeping you IN a Parabolic SAR trade i.e. it's great at telling you whether or not you have just received a 'false Parabolic SAR reversal signal' but it's NOT so great as a confirmation of a Parabolic SAR entry signal. In other words it seems to offer you good 'protection' once you are already IN a trade i.e. to STAY in the trade in the CURRENT direction but it's not so great at confirming your entry.

Regards,

Dale.