High Risk, Never Fail System

Hi everyone, I have been asked to post this system by a few friends here on babypips.
It’s an extremely high risk, low yield system, that NEVER FAILS…EVER.
I have forward demo tested this system for two years, back tested it to 2004 and am currently trading it on a live account with consistent results. CONSISTENT. That’s a nice word we all like to see in Forex, eh.

Well, without further ado, here it is!

PAIRS: EURUSD, GBPUSD (Testing AUDUSD)
Time Frame: 5Minutes
Trading Time: 8:00pm EST to 10:00pm EST (Asian Session)
Indicators: EMA (Period 5); EMA (Period 13); Williams Range % (Period 14; levels at -20 and -80)
Optional Indicator: PSAR (Default)

Rules:
LONG: Wait until the Williams Range % goes into the OS zone of -80. Once it does, wait until it exits the zone and starts moving up. Next, we wait until the 5EMA crosses and goes above the 13EMA. Wait until the current candle closes. Once all those conditions are met, draw fibs from the HIGH of the candle that just closed to the recent swing low, which should be the same as the lowest PSAR dot. Set the stop loss at 350 pips, and target 250.0 fib mark for the take profit.

SHORT: Wait until the Williams Range % goes into the OB zone of -20. Once it does, wait until it exits the zone and starts moving down. Next, we wait until the 5EMA crosses and goes below the 13EMA. Wait until the current candle closes. Once all those conditions are met, draw fibs from the LOW of the candle that just closed to the recent swing high, which should be the same as the highest PSAR dot. Set the stop loss at 350 pips, and target 250.0 fib mark for the take profit.

Here’s the key to this system.
Once the trade goes against you by 125 pips, re-enter in the same direction again using twice the amount of lots. Set the stop loss the same as the first trade, and enter 125 pips for the TP.
For conservative people, set the take profit of the first trade to the entry price, resulting in a break even trade once it goes our direction.
Again, if the trade moves against you by another 125 pips, re-enter a third time at 4x the original wager. Set the stop loss the same as the first trade, and enter 250 pips for the TP.
Very high risk, low profit - but consistent.

There are a couple of ways you can manage the trades.
Conservative - close all open trades once in a small net profit, or move the stop loss once a certain point is reached and you know you’ll have a small net profit
Greedy - don’t touch the trade and let it go to completion.

Martindale system, slightly. I know most of you are sitting there saying Martindale’s don’t work. If this were a true martindale type system, then we’d keep adding to our positions until we’re broke. Almost 10 years of back testing, demo testing and live trading have proven that the stop loss hasn’t been hit, and very rarely do we have to set that third trade. Once, maybe twice a year.

Here’s an example of a trade I took on my live account:
Jan 8th, 2013; GBPUSD
BUY with 0.1 lots entered at 1.6120, stop loss set at 1.5570 and TP was set at 1.6138 (+18 pips).
Price went against me and as soon as it was -60 pips, I set up a pending order with 0.2 lots at 1.5995, stop loss set at 1.5570 and TP at 1.6120. A day later the second trade was triggered. I moved the TP of my first trade to 1.6120 (break even)
Price finally went my direction, and as soon as it was high enough I moved my stop loss on both trades to 1.6050. Unfortunately, price ended up hitting my stop loss and I ended with -18 pips, but a net profit of +$37.00. Which incidently was higher than my original TP (+$18.00)

Hadn’t I touched the stop loss, the price kept going in my direction and I would have ended with +125 pips at 0.2 lots ($250.00) and +0 pips at 0.1 lots (break even)

example trades:





I’m using TradeBuilder Classic for my entry signals, it basically sends a signal once the candle is closed and the above conditions are met, great tool for a low price if you wanted to check it out, visit mnikolic.com.
With TB, I don’t have to sit and watch my charts, as soon as it gives me a signal it sends an audible alert. I’m sure any such indicator can be used for a EMA cross.

I’m off to florida for the week, so sorry if anyone has questions, they’re going to have to wait until next sunday!

Fascinating, all my worst environments, martingale and during the asian session, im always up for something new.

Looks good, a few questions for you:

How high have your lots gone with open trades going against you?

Has your account ever had a margin call because of this strategy?

Whats the win/loss ratio ?

(sorry for so many questions)

Out of interest how long have you been trading this strategy on live ?

If you have true faith in it, perhaps it might be worth making it into an EA?

What do you mean “perhaps”. Of course I’ll make an EA for it if it can be done :wink:

Oh i was being polite, i know you don’t like martingale’s normally, so didnt want to say you would do it incase you came back and said something “no, i hate martingales”

:slight_smile: Have to say if it was anyone else suggesting this strategy i would be hesitant, should be interesting to give it a try :slight_smile:

I have faith in windsor :wink:

And, I’m willing to try anything that is new, not just something recycled that has been thrown away by everyone already.

Also, that’s the beauty of an EA, tell you right away if the manual system will eventually burn you. Save a bunch of time, maybe money.

Dito, im with you on this one, especially as Windsor is using this live, i am intrigued to see a martingale system work !

Ditto your ditto and raise ya one

Boo how dare you tease us and disappear :wink: Have a great holiday, i think you deserve it giving us this little treat :slight_smile:

Take care and chat soon

Ok. Here is the first shot at this idea.

Have to say, that with some, what I’d call lucky exceptions, this falls the way of other “Martingale like” big stoploss, ramping up the lot size EA’s. It does go a nice stretch in profit, but eventually will hit that tripple trade stop loss with full lot load (lots initial, + X2 and then + X4 for total lot size of 7X the usual). And that’s a painful loss.

Windsor, I think you’ve just been lucky so far using this method. But check the EA and see if it’s matching your manual execution.

It only did a respectable job on the GU, netting profit. It only succeeds without loss on the GU using the “Basket Close” idea Windsor suggested, in the rules. I’ve defaulted the EA to basket close multiple trades at 0.05% account size.

However, I cannot get it to finish backtest with profit on EURUSD. I didn’t test all the other pairs. That’s your job.

Just remembered, I didn’t restrict the trade time on my backtests. It didn’t make any trades when restricted to 20:00 22:00 EST… By the way, the times are Server Time, so you have to calculate out what 20:00 EST and 22:00EST on the platform you’re trading on.

Settings you might need to know:
MA_Cross_Bar=3: how many bars from current bar does MA cross have to be. Optimized at 3.

WPR_min_bars=3: (Williams Percent Range) minimum bars from current bar the cross of the -20 or -80 has to be.
WPR_max_bars=8: with maximum bars from current bar the cross can be (optimized)

Everything else you can probably figure out.

HR_NF_ea_v1.zip (4.96 KB)

I have a more optimistic solution:
I have made a volume indicator that, if I say so myself, is very cool. And never seen it before.

For those of you that believe candle volume is an important indicator of the direction the price might go, you’ll love it.

Drag this indicator, “Volume_avgs” onto the Volumes indicator. It will show you the average volume of the specified number of candles in the settings, but that’s not the important part.

It will also show you how the current candle is progressing RELATIVE to the previous candle, and you can predict if the current candle volume is going to fall short or exceed the previous candle. This helps filter out false moves or fake-outs on less volume. This indicator, I think, can help you with all your trades, especially you guys Manual Trading. So, no more waiting till the end of the candle to see if the volume was greater or less than the previous candle.

So, I added this filter to the High Risk Never Fail ea (HR_NF_ea_v2).
In addition, I added code to require the current and previous candles to be in the direction of the trade, bullish candles for bullish trade, and vice versa.

Oh, and another big difference, I ran it on H1 chart.

Long story: much fewer trades, but almost 100% first takeprofit trades on EURUSD chart. Only missed one. A bid difference from previous backtest which was net loss.

So, as before, up to you to test it on all the other pairs, timeframes, settings, etc.

So, additional settings to tweek are:

AvgVolBars = 4;
MinVolume = 1000;

The MinVolume of 1000 was for the H1 chart, to get any trades on 5M chart, will have to drop it to around 200 or so. It’s to filter out low volume consolidation and trades that have no momentum.

Using only 4 bars for AvgVolBars, insures you get a fairly accurate representation of the volume for the immediate time you are trading.

I completely forgot, you’ll need this modified WPR indicator.

HR_NF_ea_2.zip (19 KB)

WPR.zip (1.53 KB)

Thanks James, for those interested i have stuck James new EA (v2) on a fresh chart:

https://www.myfxbook.com/portfolio/t-hr-nf-v2/466874

Cool. So, as I mentioned, depending on the time frame, you can set the minimum volume level lower to generate more trades.

Hi Sandy - The above link does not work. That is your logon link. It tells me I cannot access anothers account. You need to create a widget and post that.
Cheers.

Jim - That is an excellent concept for volume. The lack of real market volume, as you would get from NYSE etc., is something that has always niggled me in forex. I will see this month out with these multiple broker deals, see how your initial EA is going and get it going next week when I drop a couple of the poor performance demos.

I will likely open a couple of new (live) accounts next month which will give me more freedom also. I don’t like mixing systems when I have 20 + pairs running.

Ah sorry, try this one:

T-HR NF - v2 System | Myfxbook

if you just click on the tab with SandyBeach name, it shows the chart

Hah ! Didn’t realise, should have noted it. Was expecting the graph I guess and when not seen just read the most obvious.
Sorry sandy - geez, you are running a few things there but no fortune made yet. Hmmm . . . . hope you guys have had a look at SSBO.

Yep no fortune yet, just lots of testing lol, personally, if it makes a small but consistent profit then im happy, i know thats not going to make a millionaire in a year like the advert says but hey something is better than going pop ! :wink:

Im sure were get a few working systems out of everything were testing, time will tell though, alot on my profile are different versions of EA’s, which get updated when James updates the EA, so it can be a tad confusing if your looking at it for the first time.

Take a look at the general tab, it has some notes on the EA

Update on the Volume indicator. Had some bad math and added the rate of the previous volume bar for comparison. Also changed text to labels for placement.

Volume_avgs_v3.zip (1.47 KB)