Hello all,
I have been a lurker on this forum for more than a few years. I have decided to give back to the FX community by sharing a trading method that has worked for me, finally, after 5 years of trying. I call it Trend Runner. Before I get into it I would like to first lay down some rules for this thread.
1 - I know the method is not perfect. No method is. If you have something to say about it, please make it constructive. Back up what you are saying.
2 - If you run into any issues or want to ask something, please include a chart pic and add notes. It just makes it easier to see what you are talking about.
3 – Please do not ask me about Eas because I do not believe in them.
4 – If you do not like the method, just leave. We are all here to learn not come down on each other.
5 – Do not be shy to ask questions about the method, but please, do not fill the thread with simple questions that have been answered a million times all over the web. If you do not know what time your broker closes it’s candle, figure out, how am I supposed to know.
6- If you are brand new to forex, please go to babypips/school and learn the basics. I will not answer the basics here.
7- I know that everyone has there own way of trading. I have no issue with you making this system your own, but before you start adding indicators, just try it out the way it is.
OK, now that we have that out of the way lets get started.
TREND RUNNER
Trading Type : Swing Trading
Goal : To catch mid term swings in the direction of the over all trend.
Pairs : Any and all Forex pairs, metals, oils, stocks & CFD’s. I use AUD/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF & XAU/USD (GOLD).
Time Frames : 4 Hour and above is recommended. I use 4 Hour.
My broker: Oanda.
Indicators: 200 SMA (Levels 50 & -50), Support & Resistance (Barry) & Super Trend. I will include I extra tool called Signal bars Daily. It is not an indicator. You will not base trades off it. It is a MTF tool that shows you the over all strength of each TF for the pair it is on. It also has the daily open, high low pip count and current spread.
Money Management: Everyone has their own risk tolerance. Here I will explain my management. I begin the same month the same way. I begin with my current balance as displayed in my account. To that I add the margin being held by my broker for any current open trades. Finally I add the value of any secured profit on any open trades that have not yet been realized but have been secured by stoploss.
As a note, if your current trade is against you, be sure to minus the full 2% that was @ risk.
I use this value until the end of the month no matter how many wins or losses I have that month. Why you may ask? My risk is always 2% of balance per trade. But that amount changes with each trade. If I risk 2% after a win & take a loss, it will wipe out more then 2 % of the original balance amount. If I then take a trade based on the after loss balance & use 2% & it is a profitable trade, the amount will be less then I would have made had that amount been based on the original monthly amount. Get it?
Now, because the goal of this method is to catch mid term trends, we need to let the trade breath. I use a static stoploss of 100 pips for each trade on the H4 TF. The beginning of any trade is the highest level of risk you will take when you trade. The goal of trading is to minimize losses and maximize gains.
Management of your trade is important. What I do is once my trade is +30 pips to the good, I move my stop to BE +3. I do that because that will at minimum cover my interest and leave me a bit of profit should the trade go against me. After that point, for every 10 points of movement, I will add another pip to my BE. If, by the time you check, the market has moved in your direction but has come back a little, you will still add 1 pip for every 10 PIPS IT HAS MOVED IN YOUR FAVOR. For example, If the market has moved 100 pips in your favor but is now around say 60 pips, you should have a a BE +10. That way no matter what happens, you will secure 10% of the over all move. There is more below in the explanation of indicators. Please be sure to read that.
I know the above is a bit much to take in and might be a bit confusing. Here are 2 examples that might help:
Example 1:
June 1st balance = $ 9500. Current margin held by broker $1500 for trade 1 & $1500 for trade 2. Trade 1 has 125 pips secured @ a value of $2 USD a pip. Value $250. Trade 2 has 75 pips secured @ a value of $2 USD per pip. Value $150.
Add it up. 9500 + 1500 + 1500 + 250 + 150 = 12900. This amount, $12900, is going to be the basis of all trades executed during the current month. So I work that out as :
$12900 X 0.02 = $258. Now with a fixed 100 pip stop I divide 258 / 100 = $2.58. If you use MT4 for your trade execution, you will use 0.25 lots per trade. Its always better to round down then up. If, like me, you execute off Oanda FXTrade platform, you will use ( roughly) 25,800 units.
Example 2:
June 1st balance = $ 9500. Current margin held by broker $1500 for trade 1 & $1500 for trade 2. Trade 1 has 125 pips secured @ a value of $2 USD a pip. Value $250. Trade 2 has -50 pips @ a value of $2 USD per pip. Value -$100.
Add it up. 9500 + 1500 + 1500 + 250 - 200 = 12900. This amount, $12550, is going to be the basis off all trades executed during the current month. So I work that out as :
$12550 X 0.02 = $251. Now with a fixed 100 pip stop I divide 251 / 100 = $2.51. If you use MT4 for your trade execution, you will use 0.25 lots per trade. Its always better to round down then up. If, like me, you execute off of Oanda FXTrade platform, you will use ( roughly) 25,100 units.
Indicators & What They Are Used For:
200 Simple Moving Average (Levels 50 & -50) -
The 200 SMA is the most widely used and accepted Moving Average across all markets. It is especially useful in long term trading. In this method I use the 200 SMA to show the over all trend in the current TF. When price is below the line, I look for only shorts. It helps if the line is also trending down but it is not necessary. If you take a short trade because price closes under, I mean the price, not just if it spikes through, and the 200 SMA is either long or flat, the risk of the trade is higher that it will fail. That does not mean do not trade, it just means the likely hood of failure is high.
Super Trend -
This indicator was developed by Olivier Seban and later on Recoded by Jason Robinson, This indicator has the huge advantage of working on all the time frames in all markets.It is based on average true range (ATR). Blue indicates a bullish trend and red indicates a bearish trend.
Super Trend indicator moving above or below the price depending on the trend developed. Olivier Seban repositioned based on the closing day, which has the main advantage to filter false signals that may occur when the trend slows or during periods without trend. I use it as a confirmation. If overall trend is down, then I will only take trades when this indicator is red and price is below the 200 SMA.
Support & Resistance (Barry) -
This is a basic support & resistance indicator based on fractals. This indicator REPAINTS until price actually is confirmed a few candles later. This indicator is used as future stoploss levels/profit secure levels.
Your completed chart should look like this if you use the included MT4 template:
In the next post I will get into how I trade this method & add the indicators and template.
EVERYONE PLEASE READ
Yes, the S&R levels are used for new Stops/Profit protection. Sometimes, however, they do not show up for a long while which I personally do not mind if the market is just bouncing along. However, if my trades are in deep profit, I can adjust my stops with out waiting for the S&R to show up. You can see new levels of S&R even if you do not see the indi show up. It is a money management decision. If your ok with waiting for them great, if not adjust your trades as you wish.
This thread was started for the method, not the money management. I discussed my money management to give people an idea of what & how I control the trades. I have showed this method to a few colleagues. Some of them liked my MM method, some did not. One of them uses PSARs, I believe his settings are Step 0.02, Maximum 0.2. I actually liked that one but just stuck with mine because it works. He is comfortable with that, I am comfortable with mine. My buddy uses automated Trailing Stops. Some one else moves his stops to every S&R green & red. If it brakes and closes, he moves his stop.
You guys see what I am getting at? You must be disciplined but do not be so rigid that you lose money just because a line didn’t show up on your chart. Come up with a MM method that works for you. Don’t use mine if you do not believe in it. Make one that works for you, use some of the ones that my colleagues use. The bottom line is, we are here to make some money, lets go make it.
I want read and see what you guys are doing, post some charts and let me know what you guys are trading and what MM method you are using.
Another quick note about creating a MM scheme.
Please go live. Even if it’s just a few cents a pip. If you dont, you will find yourself in a world of trouble if you can not handle how your MM works with real money VS demo.
Take care-
-ILZ
EVERYONE PLEASE READ
OK, it seems that people are confused. I thought I explained it well but I guess not.
When to enter check list:
PRICE CLOSE ABOVE/BELOW 200 SMA?
YES - MOVE TO NEXT QUESTION
NO - STOP
PRICE CLOSE ABOVE/BELOW SUPERTREND? BLUE FOR LONG, RED FOR SHORT?
YES - MOVE TO NEXT QUESTION
NO - STOP
This seems to be the part that most who do not get it are confused with.
IF THERE IS A ESTABLISHED S&R INFRONT OF YOUR TRADE, LONG OR SHORT, PRICE MUST CLOSE AT LEAST 30 PIPS AWAY FROM THAT ESTABLISHED S&R.
IF THERE IS A ESTABLISHED S&R INFRONT OF YOUR TRADE, LONG OR SHORT, LESS THAT 30 PIPS AWAY, PRICE MUST BREAK AND CLOSE THAT ESTABLISHED S&R BY ANY AMOUNT.
Stop Adjustment:
ONCE PRICE MOVES 30 PIPS IN YOUR FAVOR, ANYTIME DURING OR AFTER INITIAL ENTRY CANDLE, MOVE STOP LOSS TO BE +3.
FOR EVERY 10 PIPS OF TOTAL MOVEMENT, NOT JUST CURRENT PRICE, MOVE BE +1.
MY INITIAL STOP IS 100 PIPS UNLESS THERE IS AN ESTABLISHED S&R THAT IS CLOSER THAN 100 PIPS.
YOUR STOP CAN BE WHAT EVER YOU WANT.
Closing trades:
IF PRICE CLOSES ACROSS SUPERTREND. DOES NOT MATTER ID SUPERTREND CHANGES COLOR OR NOT.
IF PRICE CLOSES ACROSS 200 SMA.
IF PRICE CLOSES ACROSS S&R IN OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF CURRENT TRADE.
That is all the basics. Every other nick knack question is answered throughout the thread. If you are not going to take the time it read all the answers people & myself graciously posted, that is on you.
But its really not that hard. The system is simple. Do not complicate it.
-ILZ
