2-year backtest EURUSD, 300 pips/month

This image most important to understand the whole thread:


Interesting point and observation!
Is this valid for all the zulutrade traders?

Valid for all zulutraders trading with pipship and using the normal risk approach illustrated at my website.
Normal risk approach = max 10% risk on equity account. Then in 3 years you will make a profit with certainty of 88%, avg profit of E 60.500 starting with E 5.000

I now do have $100.000 in account. :slight_smile: $100.000 following my signal. :slight_smile:

Next week I will start trading with E 5000 by myself. (banktransfer then has been completed)
I will make a printscreen of my zulutrade account.
Then printscreen about every week… :wink:


This month we gained exactly 300 pips.
(system has to earn on average 300 pips/month)
As posted some weeks ago, end of this month had to be +/- 800 pips. (end of august)
We are now at 791 pips. End of september will be: +/- 1100 pips?


Ranking of my system is 500. Each week I’m climbing about 100 rangs.
Trading top100 begin of november?

Next week I will start trading with my second zulu account more seriously using: E 5000,–.
(first account E 1000,-- profit is E 50,-- trading 0.2 minilots / $ 1000)
I will post a screenshot once a week.

The strategy I’m using is complex. Therefore I wrote a step-by-step trading manual:
Trading Manual | PipShip

Have a nice weekend!

10% of risk on equity - this is also extended and to my equity or yours? As 10% for you will be a death trap for me! How are you thinking to manage that?
Good for you!! You are doing a great job!

you mean you will open a followers account? or trading with real money?

I think you first have to read Risk vs Return | PipShip

I think the DD of the system will be somewhat lower than 1000 pips previously mentioned.
DDmax in 2-year backtest is max -528 pips. (250 trades)
We are now trading for almost 1/4 year and maxDD is -166. (60 trades)
System, trading EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD will make about 250 trades a year.

I think the maxDD won’t cross the -600 pips level. (we maybe need a few months to see…)
[B]300 pips up/month
600 pips down max[/B].

When trading with Normal Risk Approach (10% risk) and Abs Stop = 90%.

Scaling up the amount of mLots / $1000:
1-2nd month = 0.17
3-4th month = 0.33 (if +600 pips)
5th month and beyond = 0.50 mLots/$1000 (if +1200 pips) ->

[B]15% profit each month… (after scaling up first 4 months)[/B]

I made a program to build a track record while trading with pipship.

http://www.pipship.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/program3.xls

This will be somewhat easier…

[I]When trading with Minimum Risk Approach (3% risk) and Abs Stop = 97%.[/I]

Scaling up the amount of mLots / $1000:
1-2nd month = 0.05
3-4th month = 0.01 (if +600 pips)
5th month and beyond = 0.15 mLots/$1000 (if +1200 pips)
Stop = 91% ->

[B]5% profit each month… [/B](after scaling up first 4 months)

[I]When trading with Normal Risk Approach (6% risk) and Abs Stop = 94%.[/I]

Scaling up the amount of mLots / $1000:
1-2nd month = 0.1
3-4th month = 0.2 (if +600 pips)
5th month and beyond = 0.3 mLots/$1000 (if +1200 pips)
Stop = 82% ->

[B]10% profit each month… [/B](after scaling up first 4 months)

[I]When trading with Maximum Risk Approach (9% risk) and Abs Stop = 91%.[/I]

Scaling up the amount of mLots / $1000:
1-2nd month = 0.05
3-4th month = 0.01 (if +600 pips)
5th month and beyond = 0.15 mLots/$1000 (if +1200 pips)
Stop = 73% ->

[B]15% profit each month… [/B](after scaling up first 4 months)

I remember looking at it! Can you kindly tell me how exactly it works, as I am not really sure about it…got lost in the excell sheet :frowning:

With the excell file, you are able to see the 3 year prospectus when trading live (filling in the numbers of gained pips)
In the managed accounts (we are setting up a managed account version of pipship) You don’t need to scale up the lotssize, adapt the stop, know the whole technical story behind the strategy… just 10% profit each month, 6% risk on original deposit.

Now we only have pipship unmanaged accounts version with zulutrade. You need to do the step by step proces to trade effectively with pipship. Trading Manual | PipShip

To help you, we created an excell file to fill in the numbers of lots, risk approach, stop is being calculated for start and trading with the final amount of lots (after scaling up the lotssize number)
You are able to see the prospectus of 3 years trading.

Underneath hypothetical charts of:

[ul]
[li] minimum (risk 3% on original deposit, monthly return 5%)
[/li][li] normal (risk 6% on original deposit, monthly return 10%)
[/li][li] maximum (risk 9% on original deposit, monthly return 15%)
[/li][/ul]

All approaches do have an probability on profit of +/- 86%.

First 4 months it’s important not to hit the Absolute Stop = risk on original deposit. Probability first time trying to cross this 4-month-period: 86%. First and second time: 98%. After crossing this period you will have a profit buffer to continue trading when hitting the Absolute Stop. Before the end of the 4-month-period: hit Abs Stop -> game over (14%) Try a second time?

Images underneath: One time hit (-600 pips) Absolute Stop in 3 years of trading.
Probability hit stop = 1x in 2 years trading (backtest 2 year)

Start deposit: $ 10.000,–




I got some feedback from people downloading the file. Some of the program statistics were missing.
I will post a new excell file in a minute… (microsoft 2003 instead of XP)

thank you for the detailed analysis! I will test it and let you know!!! :slight_smile:

correct file: http://www.pipship.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/program3.xls

jep.

30 sept = > 1100 pips.

boring…

thanks!! that’s why it was not going the first time…right right!

Original LOGO PipShip (managing your own account with zulutrade):


New LOGO Managed Account Service PipShip:


We (webdesigner, hedgefundmanager (controller), programmer and founder (me)) are currently working on the PipShip ELITE webpage and service:

-licence,
-registration,
-administration system intern business
-automating the all-accounts-together-account-settings that need to be adjusted each month
-opening business bank account
-creating log in accounts customers
-terms and disclaimers and law profs checking them
-in contact with zulutrade as a business partner to use their service
-design of new website next to pipship.com
-tax registration
-support platform setup
-etc.

It will be fully operational in first months of 2014. (we hope :P, licences could delay us)

We made a quick sketch of the new website PipShip ELITE:


In the following weeks I will start trading E 10.000 euro’s in own follower account. (next to small account and accounts of friends etc.)
I will upload a screenshot each week with performance. :slight_smile:

What type of registration are you guys getting?
Cute banners btw :wink:

We need registration as financial service provider (pipshipcom) and we need a licence as investment firm to manage accounts of customers ourselves. (pipshipelitecom)

registration and licences are very costly. Request is E 4000 euro’s. (and each year 750 euro) Both firms. We are students and post-students. We don’t have the money to buy these expensive licences (and then still we are only able to act as investing firm in the netherlands)
Maybe we need NFA and CFTC licences too for US clients. And other startup costs as well. Unfortunately it’s difficult to borrow money for it. And it’s always risky. That’s why we desided to wait till end of 2014 before we start to buy expensive licences. Then we hope we earned some of the costs back of pipship so we are able to invest in pipshipelite.

Till now we are only able to send signals, not to manage followers accounts. You have to manage the lots amount and stop settings yourself the following months till we are able to take over accounts of > $10.000,–. (pipshipelite)
With account of less than $10.000 you have to manage your portfolio yourself anyway. The extra service is too costly for small accounts because we only semi automated pipshipelite. (when growing > $10.000 you are able to use pipshipelite)

(Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets)
Home AFM | AFM
NFA - National Futures Association
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission