The Turtle Strategy Live Account Test

Hi Fellow traders.

Welcome to my Live test of the Turtle strategy.

This is not the first thread regarding the Turtle strategy & probably wont be the last.

But before I start, please do some research on the Turtle strategy to get a good idea of the rules & history around the most successful & famous trading program devised. If you don’t then a lot of what I will explain may go over your head.

My aim is to keep this extremely simple.

I have opened a tiny live account of only £100. This is my test account for the Turtle strategy. Now I can already hear traders familiar with this strategy saying “this cant be done with such a small account”. Well your probably right, but I do have more money to fund this account if I suffer a string of losses at the beginning. The original rules say you risk 2% & compound your position. This will be impossible with such a tiny account so I’ve made some exceptions to get this account rolling.

1 - I will use the minimum lot size of 0.01 per trade. The risk will vary depending on stop placement which is calculated basted on volatility(N). As an example: I may have a 150 pip stop which would result in 15% risk. I may have only 80 pip stop which would be 8% etc. The stop is calculated over a period of 20 days volatility by using ATR. We call volatility N. Initial stop loss will be 2xN (two times the market volatility).

2 - I will not be compounding this strategy until maximum risk is always 2.5% per trade. My account would need to be at a minimum of £1000 before I start to compound. Compounding means adding to a position. There are a few mathematical ways to compound your position. You could add to the position at HalfN, N or 2xN. As an example: N=50 pips. Adding to position with N would be every 50 pip move from previous entry (N). Stop would be 100 pips (2xN). What I like best is keeping risk between 2% & 2.5% which I will go into detail when the time comes. I would compound a max of 4 positions per pair traded. This will be done later.

Rule’s in a nutshell:

[I][B]1 - Enter when price breaks out of 24 day high/low - I use 24 period Donchain channel as I trade GMT which has 6 daily bars per week. This still equals 4 weeks. Some brokers have just 5 days depending where you are in the world. The calculation is still the same & in this case you would use a 20 period Donchain channel.

2 - Stop is placed at 2xN. This is quickly calculated using ATR(24). Set it at 20 period if you only have 5 daily bars per week. This shows us market volatility(N) at a glance.

3 - Manage stop every new day with (2xN) until stop reaches break even or price stops you out at a loss.

4 - Once stop is at break even, you need to manage using a 12 day breakout in opposite direction. I use a 12 day setting due to 6 bars per week. Again 10 day setting if you have only 5 day bars per week.
For longs, stop is placed 10 pips below twelve day low.
For shorts, stop is placed 13 pips above twelve day high. Manage each day until stopped out.[/B] [/I]

I wont go into compounding until that day comes. Hopefully sometime in the distant future.

This is a very simple strategy but sounds complicated to explain. To keep it simple stupid, I will upload an analysis video every few days or as necessary to explain each & every trade setup, entry & management.

This first video goes into detail - Turtle Strategy Live Account Test 26 Mar 2014 - YouTube
All future video’s will be kept short & sweet.

Please keep comments to this strategy only & I will answer any questions to the best of my ability.
Any help to answer questions from other traders who are familiar with the Turtle strategy is more than welcome.

Thanks to babypips & all who try to help others.

Tyrone.

donchian_channel.zip (1.06 KB)

Hi Tyrone,

Just saw your video on this topic. Thanks for sharing your knowledge with us. I hope you’re going to be successful…good luck!

Greetings,
Peter

Hey Peter. Thanks. Time will tell.

Regards
Tyrone

Thx for sharing…
can you please share also your indicator and template?

thx

Hi cesaforex.
The indicator is Donchain channel which I found by google then downloaded to MT4. ATR is standard on MT4. Im out working at the moment, but I will upload the file & my template tomorrow sometime.

Regards
Tyrone

Hi Traders

Here’s my first update of the Turtle live account. I just wanted to show what my daily routine is & how I amend orders & stops each close of day. Turtle Strategy Live Account Test 28 Mar 2014 - YouTube

Tyrone

donchian_channel.zip (1.06 KB)

I can not upload my template from City Index. Not sure why I cant find the file as I have no probs with forex.com uploading templates etc.

no prob, thx!

[B]Live account update - 31 March 2014[/B]

Not too much happening. Floating profit is up to £110 but very early days. Here’s the latest video - Turtle Strategy Live Account Test 30 Mar 2014 - YouTube

Regards
Tyrone

Hello Tyrone,
from video I didn’t get how to calculate SL starting from volatility…i’m sorry for my stupid question but my english is not so good and i can’t see well from video.

Can you explain with an example?

thx

N=Volatility (ATR over 20 days, but in my case 24 days as I have 6 daily bars)
Initial stop loss is placed 2 times volatility (2xN)
I will trail every daily bar close 2xN until either stopped out or stop reaches break even.
Once stop has reached break even I then use the 10 day break in opposite direction as my exit. Again I use 12 days due to 6 days per week with my broker (BST).

So what ever ATR is showing, I double it & that’s my initial stop to be trailed every day until break even.
Its measured from the daily high/low depending on longs/shorts etc.

Here’s an updated video going into detail - Turtle Strategy Live Account Test 2 Apr 2014 - YouTube

[B]New week update 6 Apr 2014 - Turtle Strategy Live Account Test 6 Apr 2014 - YouTube
Balance £95
Floating £113[/B]

Not too much to report this week. Just adjusting stops & entries.

[B]Mid week update 9 Apr 2014 -[/B] Turtle Strategy Live Account Test 9 Apr 2014 - YouTube
Balance £81
Floating £102

Had a couple of losses this week but also a couple of new entries too.
Its all in the update.

I’m curious about the continued viability of the Turtle Trading method, since it’s a mechanical system which can be handled by an EA. One would think that since it’s very well known and mechanical, any edge it can give in today’s markets would be exploited and thus corrected (as there’s always someone willing to settle for less). I believe Dennis and some of the original Turtles have claimed it won’t work in the present without some modifications.

Anywho, keep up the good work and I’m interested in seeing your conclusions.

Thanks Jade

This may be true but I have not heard this myself.

[B]I think like this[/B]:
The markets move in 3 ways. Up. Down. Sideways. The only difference in these movements is volatility. So trend following methods will work well in trends and poor in sideways markets. Patterns will change over time but eventually cycle sooner or later. We have had many market crashes & will continue to do so in the future. What im saying is the markets are unpredictable, but repeatable. Dennis said that he could print his rules in the paper & still no one would follow them or make money. This is true with all profitable strategies. All strategies work well some time then poor other times. There is no getting away from it. The light at the end of the tunnel is consistency in following a strategy that will recover losses if stuck to the plan.

I bet if a thousand traders followed the same rules of the same profitable strategy, they would all have different results. Why? Because they will trade different instruments, percentages & time frames. What if I decided to trade 240 or weekly time frame with the Turtle strategy? I bet it would still make a profitable strategy.

Another question. Who would monitor all these profitable strategies & exploit them. Think about it. It’s impossible.

From my own personal experience I swear by this -
"[I]What makes a profitable trader long term is commitment, diversification & belief in what you are doing[/I]".

Regards
Tyrone

Well, Tyrone’s system is not really “the Turtle system”. The original Turtle system is much more complex. It has 2 Entries, compounding rules and rules like: “Don’t trade if the last trade was a winner”, etc. - This system is more a simple Donchian system.

The real Turtle system needed to be traded with lots of different commodities. And no, I think the Turtle system has not performed very well in the last 10 or so years. It really had its best time in the 80s and beginning of the 90s.

Oh, Tyrone - Please don’t take that as critizism and keep up the good work. I wonder how it will work out for you.

Hi Zug7. Thanks for pointing this out, but the donchain channel is exactly the same method as the original turtle’s except they worked all this out physically every day. We have the luxury of this indicator on our charts. In fact the Donchain method has been around since 1920’s. Just google it.

Your right the turtle’s compound which I will too. I need at least £1000 before even considering compounding.

There are two systems:

  1. Break of 20 day H/L
  2. Break of 55 day H/L

Like you said the filter was not to take the next trade if the last one was a winner. But if the last trade evolved into a large winner, the 55 day break was a fail safe. I wont use this as I will take every 20 day break regardless of a winner or not. So I have removed the 55 day system as I do not need it. I have done some of my own back testing which is incredibly long & boring but compared to any other trend system this is profitable over many years.

The Turtle also traded future’s, commodities, currencies & other instruments to diversify there portfolio. There overall risk would be higher in comparison to my 11 pairs if I was risking 2%, but as im risking much higher to start, maybe I could strike a good trend this year. Who knows?
What I believe is a proven strategy is always going to under perform some years. We just have to survive the long run which the Turtle strategy has proven mathematically. The edge is in the compounding for this particular strategy. I also believe the edge I have is trading a mix of correlated/uncorrelated pairs which helps diversify but catch more than one trend simultaneously. Im waiting to catch the big one (trend) to bounce this small account up for this year, if possible. I will re valuate in December.
I strongly believe in the KISS. Keep it simple stupid.

Thanks for comments chaps.

[B]Mid week update 10 Apr 14 -[/B] Turtle Strategy Live Account Test 10 Apr 2014 - YouTube
Balance £81
Floating £113

I am now incorporating the 12 day exit strategy on the audusd as the price bars over the last 12 days are higher than entry. This is the first time since starting this test so I made this video to explain in detail how I use the 12 day exit strategy.

[B]Turtle strategy update 13 Apr 2014 [/B]- Turtle Strategy Live Account Test 13 Apr 2014 - YouTube
Balance £71
Floating £91

[B]Live account update[/B] - Turtle Strategy Live Account Test 20 Apr 2014 - YouTube
Balance £63
Floating £81