Another 200 pips … currently at 118.00 but would love to see Usd.Jpy go even higher into next week, 120.00 would be really nice! First Duck (H4) favors the buying set-ups on the Usd.Jpy pair.
Safe trading Duck Hunters,
Andy
Captain Currency
Gracias Carnino
4 trades this week, 2 break even, one loser, one win. Up 9%. I’m sold. Thanks Captain!
Thats a rather small sample size to be ‘sold’ on a system though 
Just crossed over 100% returns on investment today.
I will consider that a success and as such have decided to increase my forex trading account by 150%.
Basically closed all my other investment products and moved the money over to the forex account (all my savings lol).
Captain/rindoan,
Great system. There is one thing I’m struggling with conceptually in regards to the overall approach for the 3 ducks. Say you have the following scenario:
-4 hour is below the MA but sitting on a support area
-1 hour is below the MA but sitting on a support area
-5 minute is below the MA and just broken a very recent low
In scenarios like this, is it enough that all 3 are below the MA plus the fact the 5 minute broke a recent low to enter short? Should you wait price as a whole on the 4 hour to break that perceived support area?
I guess what I’m asking is do you follow the rule on a black and white basis (i.e. 4 hour = below, 1 hour = below, 5 minute = below and break a recent low all equal automatically trade?) or do you defer to support and resistance principles first and foremost?
Hi Ace08
I used to look into support and resistance levels a lot on the higher time frames but not anymore.
If price keeps on moving with the trend as we are expecting then the support and resistance levels will get taken out.
To me the single most important thing when trading this system is to trade from a pullback and not trading from the extremes of a move that is about to pull back in your face.
If trading from a pull back is the single most important thing for me then using fibonacci retracements/extensions is the single most important tool I use to determine which areas to trade from and where price might be going.
I will give you an example from a trade I took in GBPCAD Friday. I put my pending order on before I went to bed with a short position at the break of the low on the 5min chart at abt 1.7729 with a 30 pip stop and I exited my position abt 10min before the market closed for the weekend with abt a 150 pip gain. That nettet me a RR of 5:1.
In the below screen shots you can see that the retracement level that was held for almost 24 hours in this pair was sitting at the 61.8% and 38.2% retracements respectively.
If price started to drop lower this was almost a text book setup and I was very confident to take this trade.
As you can see about London opening the price just went straight down.
To sum it up and go back to your question, look for strong trends on the 4h, look for pull backs on the 1h and 5min charts to fib retracement levels and enter basis the 5min chart breaks.
Disregard support and resistance levels as we are not range trading.
Rindoan,
Thanks for the awesome reply…I figured as much but I just wanted to be sure.
I totally agree with you about retracements…I’m also a big believer in trading with the trend but only after retracements so this system looks like it will fit me like a glove.
Just to make sure I’m thinking along the correct wavelength…to my untrained eye the following pairs look tradeable RIGHT NOW. Would you agree?
EUR/AUD
EUR/GBP
USD/CAD
USD/JPY also looks like it will be tradeable soon.
Thanks in advance
Ace08,
The objective is to identify, filter & bet on the strongest visible momentum moves when they begin stretching out & growing legs.
Over the past 4-6 weeks you could virtually have pulled up any of the Yen pairs on your primary watch list & kept them there at the exclusion of all else due to the strong fundamental theme driving that move.
Over the same time period gbp/usd has served as a decent back up.
Compare the current 4 hour price action around the moving average on any of the above mentioned pairs to that of the activity on usd/cad & eur/aud & decide which constitute the cleanest & strongest potential for continuation.
Whenever prices begin stretching out, particularly driven by strong fundamental themes, this simple & effective model will come into its own.
Thanks Double.
And yes I understand the underlying premise of the system…I was just wondering what others specifically thought in regards to the pairs I mentioned above and how they compared to, say for example, the 2 pairs you mentioned.
EURAUD has about a flat sma and if you look at the move it has made on the 4h chart there will have to be quite a big pull back before I think it is tradable.
EURGBP has an upwards sloping sma but price is currently below it.
If we see price moving up again next week it could be a pair to look into but not for the beginning of the week.
USDCAD and USDJPY are both looking really good and are the 2 pairs I will look to trade when the market opens.
Thanks for the insight…so bottom line keep an eye on the slope of the SMA and also factor that into the decision. I’ll apply that and hopefully have as much as success as you’re having.
Thanks again.
One to pay attention to Duck Hunters: Usd.Cad and the probability of it selling down to 1.1188 in the coming days – Currently its at 1.1260.
90 pips is the average daily pip variation for this pair and on H4, our first duck only favors the selling set-ups.
A good plan might be to Sell when all your 3 Ducks line up or follow the down-swing and sell into rallies.
Target – that 1.1188 area of recent support seems realistic for hungry bears!
Safe trading Duck Hunters,
Andy
Captain Currency
If you celebrate it … Happy Thanksgiving Duck Hunters.
Just a quick Thank You to all the great traders who post on this thread, answer questions and offer guidance. Thanks a bunch guys, I’m not always around to answer questions so CHEERS for doing what you do, I’m humbled.
[B]Andy
Captain Currency[/B]
This sounds like a very interesting idea are you planning on turning this into an ea by any chance? The reason I asked because it seems like it to me that you would get quicker testing results if you automated and just measured it that way instead of flipping back and forward through time frames.
it ll not break the down line check out the H1 chart
Please take the time to properly read the thread, e-book and/or view the examples videos posted by the Captain, because it has been stated over an over again that this is a DISCRECIONARY method and it is NOT TO BE AUTOMATED!!!
Plus, there is a VERY IMPORTANT REASON for why one should view the 3 time-frames and not just one with multiple MA’s. This has also been repeatedly addressed here on this thread as well as the Captain’s e-book and videos!
Hi MT,
as stated previously, this is a discretionary trend following system. Discretionary means you can’t automate it. It still takes a lot of work and experience to get right.
I personally only trade 4 pairs and if I don’t have a set up, I don’t have a set up. Over the last 6 months my account has gone up, come back down, gone up, come back down etc… Currently, I can say that I am on a very nice up streak, but only because of the heartache and pain I went through at the beginning.
Here’s my 2 pennies worth:
- Choose a couple of liquid, popular pairs and stick with them. I use Cable, Fibre, EURJPY and AUDUSD.
- If you don’t see a trade opportunity, wait - they’re like buses…
- Learn to identify a good trend (sloping SMA lines, especially on the 4 hr).
- Don’t try to earn too much too soon. Use compounding to [B][U]gently [/U][/B]increase your entry sizes over time.
- Keep a diary of success and failure - use it to improve and evolve.
- Be prepared for the system to give you losses - manage them.
I have found keeping a diary more important than the system itself and attribute my latest successes to doing a good job of this. I simply draw a (blue for long and red for short) line on my chart between the entry and the exit points of the trade (on the 4 hour and 5 min chart), take a screenshot (I have many now) and then assess whether it was a good trade; looking back, I have been surprised at how often I used poor judgement in the early days and, having learned from my mistakes, I am now starting to see my account grow (until the next downdraft).
Some of the info on here about Heikin Ashi and Fibonacci is super useful, but if you haven’t understood the concept of the 3 ducks thoroughly, and you are not yet profitable, leave them out of your decision making process for the time being. While it is true that they can help to improve your abiilty to spot a trend and identify your entries and exits, they can also cloud your judgement if you are not yet totally at ease with the 3 ducks concept.
Warning - the discretionary part of this system can get lost if you think digitally - an on/off mentality to opening trades just because the 3 ducks are lining up is going to hurt. For example, if the price dips below an upward sloping 60MA on the 4 hour chart, and it has been below the 60MA on the 1 hr and 5 min (as you would expect) for a while, you may think that, because your ducks are lined up, you should enter short. In this case, it [U]is [/U]true that the ducks line up, but their end destinations are not necessarily going to be the same. That’s one of the many reasons the system can’t be automated.
A final word - No system is perfect; no system can guarantee 100% success rate; and no system works without careful management, effort and a total understanding of how it works. Systems, once they work, look super easy, but so is riding a bike once you get the hang of it - but tell that to the 4 year old who you’re trying to teach…
I hope I have helped a little; It’s helped me get some stuff off my chest…
Steve L
PS - take note of the fact that the Captain has been on this forum since 2007 and he hasn’t been tempted yet to automate…
That’s a weak support level. A much stronger level is at 1.12333
At the risk of educating too much, target the inside of the previous swing, in general.
–just a random driveby…
Andy was focusing a legitimate & very common technical level (a prior weekly low) matched with another commonly repetitive event (a pair’s average daily range coverage).
One of the key components of this model is to constantly identify & marry up value with odds, a practice that judging by the longevity of the thread, appears to have stood not only the test of time but the rigours of the market.
Hindsight analysis/education always looks much more impressive after the event.
Perhaps from now on you could drive by & analyse the chart presentations whilst they’re still relevant.