“… wouldn’t mind asking you ( or anyone else who really knows ) , why do you only recommend a small basket of currencies to watch over (a couple of majors and 2 cross pairs)? I know other cross pairs aren’t as liquid, but for the 4h timeframe, isn’t it good to watch other main cross pairs as well – means more opportunities to trade, more profits to make. And after a trade gets to BE, it doesn’t matter if a new trade is correlated or not. Anyone know? i must be missing something.”
any other answers to the question from other duck hunters?
I just have to say Thank You for a simple to understand system!
I have been on a month long binge of learning, reading and absorbing everything Forex (well probably not everything!) And a couple hours ago I couldn’t sleep—
Anywho–I had finally got the nerve up to open up the platform and test out your system. The first pair I looked at weren’t all in a row…so I looked at another pair–yep all 3 ducks in a row.
Had I been trading LIVE–I would have been shouting from the mountain tops!
Yep you are a bit out It used to be most would calculate pips by using the last 2 or 3 numbers but as most now offer down to a fraction in numbers,it’s better to realise the last number is not a whole pip.
I don’t think I’ve explained that too well,but basically your move was from 1.2275 to 1.2332 so 48 pips still a pretty good haul.
On a side note personally I’m not touching GB atm as every speech or statement coming from the government sends it shooting off.
Not sure anyone advises only watching 4 pairs, I myself watch 8 but will whittle that down at the weekend to ones worth watching.Usually about 3 or 4 (though 6 for this week)
Some of the more obscure crosses will have a huge spread so aren’t really worth considering unless you are planning on holding for months imo.
I don’t worry so much about correlation as others as long as overall risk is managed I’m not too bothered.One of the good things about this method is you get a lot of screen time which helps in getting a feel for what works on a particular pair.When you are scanning a huge amount of pairs maybe you would take less notice of this "feel"
However none of that is scientific some people will only trade 1 pair others will look at everything including indices,metals oil etc.
You really just have to find the number you’re comfortable with.
If, for example, you have a [I]USD/JPY long trade[/I] at break-even, and then you put on a [I]EUR/JPY long trade,[/I] – and then the JPY takes off to the upside – you’re gonna lose money on both of your trades.
You may be [I]losing profits[/I] on the first trade, and [I]worsening your loss[/I] on the second trade, but losses are losses. You’ve just doubled-down on a [I]short JPY[/I] position, and taken a double loss.
But for actually watching the trade unfold according to plan and the fib levels was pretty darn exciting. Too bad haven’t had time since then to even look at everything…
Great - welcome and good luck. May I suggest you create your own ‘pdf’ or ‘additional help’ for example look at any possible trade that could have been had today? Are there any? Did they win? etc. … And, a piece of advice… it doesn’t matter if I see a winning or losing trade, it only matters what you see.
was there a possible trade on NZD/USD today? does this pair look like a good pair to go long or short on today?
Also, this isn’t a “strict” system to follow, use it more to train what to look for, it is a way to view the market.
One or two half decent set ups this week across the board using this as your compass.
Looks like you’ve finally assembled what appears to be a comfortable framework in which to operate, from the common themes you’ve invested in.
Good to see.
Hi. Thanks for responding. I’m still trying to succeed at this. I never really looked at it like that. If i saw 2 highly correlated trades, i’d get into one, then when the first gets to BE, get into the other if it’s a nice looking trend. I just thought that since the first would end in zero at least, it’s as though i never took it in the first place and swapped it for another opportunity (assuming things reverse as u say) . the thing is, if you never take other positions that are correlated (after getting to BE), then you won’t have as many opportunities will you?? doesn’t that phase you? (thinking of 4h frame here)
email the captain for a pdf of the basic system, then just work your way through this thread.There are loads of good examples. If you just read 10 pages a day you’ll be done within a month and all it will cost you is your time,what a bargain
i see correlation differently now. Clint’s advice makes sense. rather than launching a new highly correlated trade after achieving BE, one is probably better off pyramiding, or increasing the risk percentage if they want more money (also can split risk up between correlated trades…). thanks Clint and Captain. hopefully my system will work out. still testing.
I think this happens because in 5min it is actually a down trend: the SMA is sloping downward, price is making lower lows and lower highs, and we can draw a down trend line.
So, I think perhaps we should go long only if the 5 min SMA is sloping upward showing a good up trend (then we will buy when the price is above the SMA and breaks a previous high)?
One option for increasing the odds in favor of your trade, is to wait until the price, on the 5 min chart, not just crosses the MA, but also makes a higher high and a higher low, and then when price breaks the higher high - that’s when you enter. In other words, you enter after price shows signs of trend behaviour on the 5 min chart that coincides with the higher TF charts.
In the image below, imagine that price is above the MA on the higher timeframes and you’re looking to enter long. I wouldn’t enter straight at the spot I marked with a red cross, when price just crosses.
I would enter at the green arrow where price has made a higher low and now breaks the previous high. That’s where the higher odds trade entry is.
I hope it makes some sense. I’m not an expert at 3 ducks, so maybe the Captain will have better advice for you.
Yes, I think it makes sense: wait for the 5min showing uptrend by making higher highs and higher lows, so we can draw a mini uptrend line connecting 2 lows.
Just an observation: in your chart, we shouldn’t go long at the red cross, according to the 3 Ducks guidelines, because it has not broken a previous high.
We should enter at the high after the green arrow, because here it breaks a previous high.
So, in this case your idea and the original 3 Ducks guideline show the same entry point.
Fwiw the pairs I am looking at this week GB NZd EU AU
The Aussie looks good but has a fair bit of resistance around the .7690 area but if that fails could get a decent run
Let’s suppose we are in Zone 1 where, of course, we are under SMA, but isn’t too risky to look for a sell in this zone? We are in a very over-sold area and a Pullback is very likely.
Isn’t wiser to wait until price reach the Zone 2 and there we can look for sell signal?(Like it happened here, but the question is purely theoretical)
Unfortunately your zone 2 the pressure seems to be up, it is a little scary for me to simply state it is time to sell. however, notwithstanding other factors. . . if price were to reach that zone, then demonstrate a downward pressure. It might then be a go for a short.
Where, is the sma, on the 1hr chart in this example? Duck 2?
It used to be most would calculate pips by using the last 2 or 3 numbers but as most now offer down to a fraction in numbers,it’s better to realise the last number is not a whole pip.
