The 3 Duck's Trading System

Unfortunately your zone 2 the pressure seems to be up, it is a little scary for me to simply state it is time to sell. however, notwithstanding other factors. . . if price were to reach that zone, then demonstrate a downward pressure. It might then be a go for a short.

Where, is the sma, on the 1hr chart in this example? Duck 2?

Looking back through a couple of my diaries june july seem a couple of my worst months ,thats only over a couple of years though so not a great sample. And record keeping wasnt great as i didnt always not whether it was 3 ducks trade or not so make of it what you will.
Fwiw the most consistent months seemed to be sept oct nov

For what it’s worth (if anything) I suspect - but can’t prove - that in general, the Northern-hemisphere summer months of July and August tend overall to be slightly less reliable for [U]all[/U] systems traded from time-based charts, and that the period from early September until mid-December tends to be significantly better (but that that observation [I]doesn’t[/I] remain valid if one trades from volume-based charts instead, and I think there are probably-fairly-understandable reasons for that).

Thanks, Perch for your entry.

Of course, at that time SMA on H1 it was under the price action, but I wasn’t talk about an entry on Zone 2 only if the SMA form both H4 and H1 were above the price.

In the meantime the price reached SMA 60 on H4 and start to react, such that SMA H1 went also above the price action, so we have 2 of 3 ducks.

What I meant with my question was: isn’t to dangerous to sell from such an oversold area, like Zone 1?



Thanks a lot!

Then the answer is no. It is no more dangerous to get in short here than it would have been for zone 2.
BUT there is a caveot. . . . . if zone 1 presented itself, say later on on Friday. (ie, no trading on Friday. . .but if you were going to and it was later on Friday. … then this would be to risky.) so there are other factors to consider rather than just the zone.

Howdy Norm, I think we might be in very different parts of the world (Ireland here).

I tend not to get too bogged-down in seasonality. My approach has always been; firstly scan a basket of Fx pairs and if a pair is trending, we have our green light OR if everything is going sideways (flat as a pancake) its golf time!

January was a good month for me, to be honest I was half expecting January to be a “slow month”, just goes to prove why I shouldn’t pre-empt what the market conditions might be like.

Stats for: Nov '16 - Feb '17
Number of trades: 59
Win rate: 64.41%
Avg trade duration: 1.1 day

Avg win: 34.80 pips (1.05%)
Avg loss: -45.46 pips (-0.92%)

Return: 26.16%
Max. Drawdown: -11.84%


I’d be very interested to read what the other active forum members think about seasonality, have you observed certain market condition during some months/periods (or not)? Do let us know.

Take care,

Andy
Captain Currency

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What are you risking per trade and how many positions can you have at any one time? Those results are impressive!.

Greetings Andy and other Duck Hunters!

Firstly, a huge huge thank you to you Andy for starting this thread and sharing this knowledge with us! I have just finished reading the entire thread (has taken me weeks haha) and it would definitely be my recommendation that anyone who hasn’t already done so go do so now.

This system is fantastic, I finished up with my demo account in the black last month, and if I can do the same this month I will be going live. Thanks again Andy!

Now there’s a nice first post. Welcome to the forum. :cool:

(It’s a great shame that having nearly 300 pages in a thread [U]will[/U] put some people off from reading it carefully: if only they knew - they could probably learn more [I]of value[/I] here than in 30 other threads :33: ).

There’s no denying it, this is one of the most stable, reliable systems most of us will come across

Hi all.

A quick question regarding this guide. Would you guys enter the short trade if all 3 ducks are beneath the 60 sma on the 3 TF but Stochastics and RSI are already indicating oversold.

I know Captain doesn’t include the use of these indicators in his guide. But just curious, what’s your take on this situation?

Kweek

As you stated, Stochs and RSI are not part of the “method” so are not even contemplated. However, this is a discretionary “method” and not a “strategy” with strict specific rules.

So, if you feel more comfortable using those indicators to supplement the 3D method, then that is your prerogative. The question is however, have you tested that to see if either (a) it is helping improve your trading or (b) making it worse?

Many times, it is best to just keep it simple! K.I.S.S. is my motto!

That was my exact reasoning. If I can pick up as many little tips and tricks as I can then I believe being profitable is only a matter of time. For what it’s worth I just started on the Trade2win forum post as well haha

Excellent so many people on the forums see a long thread jump in at the end and start asking questions that are often explained in the very first post.

nice results captain. the 11% drawdown is interesting (2% risk maybe…) seems like the little profit taking ratio although small is in fact still a very large amount as time goes on. i think with this system one can have long times like 10-15 trades of no money (net zero, it’s treading), then it can roll in.

some questioning here about whether it’s okay to come in later. some traders say it’s more ideal to come in earlier on in the trend but coming in later like middle way is still viable, just not as good. i think this for 4h tf trades. but for the short term, same thing as it’s in a 4h that may or may not end soon, but good thing is you only need one more 4h wave and your short term (e.g. 1h stop loss) is a winner .

Hello to all,

Just came across this system, and it is one of the most simplest out there and with a lot of people following it as well. I will demo trade it for a few weeks to see how it’s going.
As I see it, it does not give signals very often (I mean daily). Since we wait for price to cross SMA and given the fact that this happens more frequently on the 5m chart, then the 1h chart and lastly on the 4h chart, the number of trades we take are equal (if the 3 ducks always agree, which is not the case) or less (quite often) than the number of crosses on the 4h chart. Right?
One thing that troubles me is the noise on the 5min charts. Has anyone gave it a try after replacing this TF with the 15min? I will try this variation anyway, but I was wondering if it has already been used by someone else.

still learning, but if you succeeded at trading the shorter term like 1h/5min (or 15min) then you would get many signals. thinking about it, how often does a 4h 60sma crossover ie 4h trend occur - they come often enough. then for every new 4h wave that is made you got a shorter term trade running and collecting (assuming it goes well). but if you trade 4h setups, then you might get several 4h trends occurring from different currencies but they’re correlated so i would not think that you would take them at the same time unless you want more risk.

i mucked around with the 5min frame and it didn’t suite me. but i noticed many of captains examples he trailed on the 1h frame, using the 5min for entry. and that might be key to making it work much better, at least for me, since then it’s really a 1h trade. i also noticed sometimes you can get 5min crossovers within ranging 15min price action, and i’m thinking to avoid that. earlier on in the forum it says 5min chart is similar to the 15min charts, but i didn’t find that to be the case. but i’m not profitable yet, so don’t trust what i say.

i know the duck’s system doesn’t require a higher - ie D1 - timeframe for 4h setups, but is that a good idea?

just seems like you’ll get many 4h 60sma crossovers happening in a somewhat mushy looking context. those 4h trends (without a higher timeframe) often look garbled to me. but i’ve been looking to take them… peoples thoughts? take the eur-usd right now, not a pretty looking 4h trend . okay perhaps to do a short term trade (e.g. 1h setup) but regarding a 4h setup it doesn’t look nice.

When babypips testers decided to trial 3 Ducks they used 15 min rather than 5 , though there didn’t seem to be any good reason for it. Fwiw the test was not popular with duck users as they didn’t think it correctly portrayed the method.
Personally I thought it was a reasonable effort a trying to show what the method can do, and if I remember correctly the tests showed a positive result.

I don’t really get where you’re coming from,maybe I’m reading you wrong 4Hr set ups 1 hr set ups ?
It’s pretty simple start with 4 go to 1 then go to 5. The only variations I’ve seen in all this time is some people have successfully added a stoch and some go no lower than 1 hr.
Fwiw in my opinion the angle of the 4 hr sma is crucial a price above/below a flat sma doesn’t need any further looking at.