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[tonymand]

[quote=Tess;26261]I'd be inclined to simply play the range (with an 'all in-all out' approach) until it breaks with confidence


I have certainly misplayed this one. Not sure why I ignored the 1H resistance so have been stopped at be on my second half. Also missed the possible trip down. This is the sort of thing now that is really challenging because I was looking to get long again and hadnt really thought about the 'range' issues and the possibility of looking for a medium term short. I know there is no right and wrong just different opinions. There is also a lesson for me in prejudging the market as I could have taken the round number strategy down as well or instead so I am somewhat left with a sense of what might have been

[Jocelyn]

Originally Posted by tonymand

I know there is no right and wrong just different opinions. There is also a lesson for me in prejudging the market...

Yeah, & it's healthy to adopt views. We all play them as we see them, & you protected your remaining stakes, so no harm done.

There's only a 200 pip range on this one, & 2.0365 is proving to be a pretty neat fulcrum. That really is the axis on longs/shorts for this range play.

Stops either side (below for longs...above for shorts?) of that line would test the honesty of price as it attempts to break either side of the upper-lower range lines?

Like you say, we each adopt our own personal choices on how to play these differing market conditions, but I like to take it back to basics when looking to play any prolonged position, whether range or trend.

ie: if I'm going long, such as this particular trade, & executing via the 5/15min combo frames, then I continue to observe the peak-trough behaviour (if it exists) as I would if the position was a potential longer term swing trade.

Just look at your 15 and/or 5min frame to quickly assess the behaviour since your entry.

Is it continuing to conform to said behaviour (higher high, higher low)?? If so, then where's the justification for cutting it?

And where would be the likely (sensible) zone for hiding your remaining stops?

It's exactly the same tick list for managing your trades. Let the market tell you you've got your positioning wrong!!

[tonymand]

Yes thanks Jocelyn. A combination of an unavoidably late entry and my never ending tendency to be close with my stop. Just to add to the frustration of this trade I couldnt find a way back in though maybe could have gone off the temporary USD strength following the Empire figs. Now contemplating the double top but not going to do anything about it. Have clearly not been 'in tune' with this pair tonight so will leave alone. I am still sat well back on the EY so hopefully that will give me some cheer

[tonymand]

If you were playing this strategy tonight are you now going to go for 4/4?

[Jocelyn]

That's certainly one option Tony, & this morning it was the major play.

But, you know me....I'll let the market tell me what I ought to be considering!! I'll definitely be watching the candles up here for clues.

I agree with your EY comments: there are higher potential (trend) plays out there at the moment without stressing as to whether Cable is going on a run or not

[Jocelyn]

The London & NY activity has given us a clear minor swing boundary to work with into the close.

2.0385 to 2.0430, this 0.5 cent clip can maybe assist in determining whether this trade is worth hanging onto in tomorrows action?

Obviously as London shuts it's doors for the day, the volumes are going to dramatically tail off. I would expect therefore, prices to slip back & threaten the fulcrum line @ 2.0365.

If the demand is genuine, then they'll manage to hold prices up here & look to maintain the higher-low behaviour.

Any drifting, & lower high behaviour below this minor s&r level here @ 2.0430, wouldn't really instill confidence about holding fresh longs, unless you'd engaged lower down near 2.0270-90.

It's all about aims & expectations. And in amongst your aims sits the risk, position size & trade management parameters.

You can only realistically work with what you got in the present tense, yeah?

No good shooting for the months highs, trailing unrealistic stops if you only climbed into the trade @ c2.0365. You're not allowing enough margin for error.

Entry is where you begin considering your potential options. If you're late, you reduce those options.

[tonymand]

This is the second time recently I have been caught in a nasty downdraft and with my frustration with GU last night capped off a fairly difficult trading day. In addition to the unexpected and unwelcome stop there is an opportunity cost in not taking advantage of the potential large profits available from the sharp reversal. The 15 min uptrend is still intact but now more vulnerable. The daily confirms the overall strenght of the up move

[tonymand]

Looks like a major crossroads here for this pair. Other key pairs also seem to be at their support levels as well. Am not engaged in anything at the moment so looking to pick up some scraps if the opportunity presents itself

[Tess]

Will it, won't it

Cable sniffing the top end of this 2 week range into the London close. This is the 2nd real pop at 2.0460 & the Bulls will be seeking a concerted effort here to shoulder prices on the peak-trough ascent off the lower levels of the range.

The weak $ data has certainly assisted this week, & we've only got UK GDP left in the data cupboard for tomorrow.

The big guns are sidelined now until after the weekends G7 gig, so the volumes will be lighter than usual.

Worth keeping your wits about you into the w/end to maybe catch a sniff of an each-way punt from these levels if you're not already positioned!

[Tess]

No nasty surprises this morning then! Prices adhering nicely to the levels mentioned in yesterday's post (15m chart), affording a continuation 'long' at the start of London trade.

Volumes are trailing off markedly now ahead of the G7 w/end. Short-term speculators will undoubtedly be booking profits into the (London) close, & we'll see where we stand again into early Tokyo trade Sunday night!

Enjoy the w/end