Alternative Technical Templates.

[tonymand]

This was worth waiting for. We are at a critical level with tight ranging action for hours. Entry on the break of the trendline with higher lows on the immediately preceding candles and divergence gives some confidence for this trade. Have taken half and moved stop to be as this break is against the trend and for a longer term trade long I would want to come off a higher low in the 15 min frame

[tonymand]

Final exit. 162 is a major resistance and although we may get through that its getting late and a 100 pips is a nice end to the week

[jlmac27]

I am not sure what you are saying about already be in position.Do you mean...say you are coming up on a support level,should you go short before you get there?And if it bounces you can always get out and break even?

[jlmac27]

I think I cleared it up on my own tony.I went back and seen what jimmymac was talking about I think.Let price hit S&R and watch what it does.Let it bounce once and if price gets rejected a second time jump on board,correct?

[tonymand]

Originally Posted by jlmac27

I think I cleared it up on my own tony.I went back and seen what jimmymac was talking about I think.Let price hit S&R and watch what it does.Let it bounce once and if price gets rejected a second time jump on board,correct?

spot on mate

[tonymand]

As some of you will have read I am trying to put the things I have learned into some key workable principles so as to identify approx 3 high probability high return trades per week on the EY. The idea is to trade the price action with limited reliance on any other indicators and of course to be aware of higher timeframe SR levels. It wont surprise you from some of my posts that I have a handful of favourite tools. I have been looking at
The 60 SMA
Double/Triple tops and bottoms
Stochastic Divergence
Trading in line with the 15 min trend and using peaks and troughs for exit
Candlesticks especially inside/outside bars, tweezers and pin bars
Now the attached series of attachments show 4 easily identified trades that would have yielded 25R last week. Some of these trades I took and identified them in real time on bpips but I did not trade them as successfully as shown here so no I am not yet retiring from my real job! This is my first attempt to delineate something that might work on a regular basis and cut out much of the noise trading I tend to indulge in (usually at a loss). There were other good opportunities during the week on this pair but with smaller returns.
All comments would be appreciated. At the end of the day I would rather trade less often and more profitably

[tonymand]

These are the other 2 attachments. They are all in sequence and show the EY on the 15 min frame for the week

[tonymand]

As I am not currently in the EY exiting on friday night the implication is for me to look for a long entry at the 60SMA or await some other convincing reversal signal perhaps a double/triple top and divergence at a higher level area of supply. Then to trade the downtrend for as long as it lasts (or the continued uptrend for that matter) rather than my current approach of scurrying in and out. Needless to say profit taking points can be added in along the way although its always struck me that the really big returns would be made if you ADDED to the winning position as the trend progressed especially in markets like we have been experiencing recently. Over the coming weeks I am going to try and trade only these sort of setups on this pair and look to refine it and see what the win:loss and ROI is. I will try and post up each set up that I see (win or lose) so if I miss one (we all know how one eyed we can be when we are trying to prove something) then please bring it to my attention. If it is possible to get a simple version of trading price action together then I think this would help a lot of new (and not so new traders) and it would then be worth starting a separate thread

[tonymand]

In a word avoid it!. This is the same series of shots as I used to demonstrate the opportunities on EY last week. Remember that whats looks obvious now doesnt in real time. If you chose to use something like an inside or pin bar technique to trade a retracement then you could possibly make money out of this depending on your trade set up but what I want to show is first of all how many extra trades you end up taking (and I may have missed some here), how much more closely you would have to monitor them and how much less the relative return. Whilst very experienced traders seem to be able to do this with ease my view is avoid it like the plague since you dont need the aggravation. Its easy to see how people are drawn to this as they love to try and pick the tops and bottoms.

[tonymand]

This completes the series. I have highlighted a total of 18 trades, about 6 of which give limited but reasonable opportunities at a profit, there are about another 6 that are clear losers and the final 6 may have been slightly profitable or at worse break even depending on your system. BUT - why bother?