Alternative Technical Templates.

[tonymand]

We are approaching an interesting area this afternoon on GY. I was tempted to take the earlier break low but stayed out. There are a number of possibilities here that may develop over the next few hours. Signs of the support area holding allowing us in long, a retracement back to the trendline and a short position which would allow us to be in a trade for the next probing of this lower support, or a break of the support and a retest from underneath allowing us in short for the ride down to the next level. I was working this morning so missed the best opportunity which was the earlier retracement back to the trendline and rejection at that level which would now have me sitting pretty. I think this is what Tess meant when she talked about being in position ahead of a major fulcrum area as we have coming up

[JimmyMac]

Originally Posted by jlmac27

Would this be a valid entry? Support at the 108.40 and showing devergence.If I am wrong at any of this please let me know.I think I fixed my image size for you to see them better(I hope).

I mentioned yesterday that when prices are in obvious downtrend cycles, it's often more appropriate & less stressful to consider selling rallies or looking for shorts, opposite for uptrend cycles?

Do you take a quick look at daily closing bars at all when summarizing your next day analysis jlmac27?

I've posted 2 charts with slightly different closing times for the USDJPY from the last few days. Both of yesterdays closing prices didn't really signal anything other than a continued depressed outlook for this pair.

If you look at the information contained in Tuesday's (20th) & yesterday's bar, you'll witness similar behaviour.

Bulls attempted to gain the upper hand, demonstrated by the long upper wick of the candles, but Bears won the day by forcing prices to close at the lower end of the bar.

The previous 7 days activity is also continuing to highlight the downtrend cycle by printing lower top price action.

Using the daily (close) bar information alongside your lower timeframe charts will often assist in offering you a more balanced view of your analysis.

[tonymand]

I missed this opportunity this afternoon. There was the classic retrace to the 60 SMA and an earlier entry could have been effected by switching to the 5 minute chart

[jlmac27]

Hello tony,
I was comparing your screen shot charts with mine and I see about a 2 hour difference.I have never noticed this before.Is something different or have I just never noticed this,and what is the reason for this?Different borkers or our location(time difference?)

[tonymand]

Originally Posted by jlmac27

Hello tony,
I was comparing your screen shot charts with mine and I see about a 2 hour difference.I have never noticed this before.Is something different or have I just never noticed this,and what is the reason for this?Different borkers or our location(time difference?)

Could be either Josh. My MT4 is I think on GMT +1 (never actually bother to work it out) Some platforms use GMT, other ET and still others automatically give your own timezone

[tonymand]

Looks like a very interesting week looming on GY. 222.60 is a critical level to hold if the recent downtrend is to be halted. Looks to me like a retracement into the areas marked on the 4H and 15M might present an opportunity to get short ready for a further assault downwards. At the moment the obvious low risk play is to stay with the immediate trend. With stochs overbought on the 15M that opportunity may come early tomorrow.

Another interesting scenario would be a rejection at this lower level on the H1which might signal the halt (temporary or otherwise) of the march down and provide opportunities long off the rejection or of course short (if not already in) if this does not hold and forms a tradeable peak from underneath. As always coping with the unknown and having some ideas about what might happen gives you an improved chance of recognising whats happening in real time

For me with my trading frame of 15 mins the major trend is defined by the 1H so this is unequivocally down until the market tells me its changed. As such I am looking to use the lower timeframes in order to sell retracements and use the key levels of SR to denote profit taking opportunities depending on the price action when we get there

[jlmac27]

Hello tony,
I read your post there,and I put up a couple screenshots of my own to get a little input.My 1H chart is showing convergence,looking as if we could get a bounce off the 60SMA,stochs are overbought and getting ready for a ride back down,also we are at a fib ratio 61.8.My 15M chart is showing a break of a downward trendline though?But stochs are overbought and we are at a minor resistance zone(or would you say a pretty relative one?)I think we are going to see a retrace here.I post this for advice on my interperation of price action,criticism is welcomed..thanks again....

[jlmac27]

Well my prediction was wrong,We opened up with a falling window pattern.Tell me where I went wrong on my prior post.Glad I am on demo still lol

[tonymand]

Originally Posted by jlmac27

Hello tony,
I read your post there,and I put up a couple screenshots of my own to get a little input.My 1H chart is showing convergence,looking as if we could get a bounce off the 60SMA,stochs are overbought and getting ready for a ride back down,also we are at a fib ratio 61.8.My 15M chart is showing a break of a downward trendline though?But stochs are overbought and we are at a minor resistance zone(or would you say a pretty relative one?)I think we are going to see a retrace here.I post this for advice on my interperation of price action,criticism is welcomed..thanks again....

not necessarily a case of being wrong but of having some ideas that can be monitored and your analysis seems ok to me outlining one of the possible scenarios. Remember all sorts can happen after the weekend and you need to have outlined a plan for whatever happens. The question now is in the light of the gap opening what are the reasonable scenarios. I may take the next short I get the chance at based on the longer trend being down but aware that the 200 point move up could be more than a retracement although the last peak was 233.90 and I will reassess at that point. If there isnt a solid opportunity I will leave it as we are not yet in an established rhythm following the weekend. If we get above 233.90 and the retracement trough holds there may be a long opportunity. BUT got to go to work so in reality may be no opportunity!

[tonymand]

OK now got the short off the 5 mins. First challenge coming up on the trendline. Might often take half at this point but want to give the longer term trend down a chance to take us back to the key support area around 221.50 - 222. So have on this occasion moved stop to be and we will see. Obviously a failure of this move and break back above 224.50 would change the plan to looking for dips and buying them. However nice to have a risk free trade at the start of the week